According to the author's understanding, from June 65438+1October 19 to June 2 1 day, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued "the sixth batch of pork reserves in the near future", "NDRC and some large domestic aquaculture enterprises should study how to stabilize prices and ensure the supply of live pigs" and "the state instructed local governments to increase their efforts to put them into local areas.
From the official release for three consecutive days, it is not difficult to see that the domestic pig price has been at a historical high, and the excessive rise of pig price has affected the fundamentals of long-term supply stability in the pig market. Due to the "strongest voice" of official regulation, the domestic pig price rose and then fell, and the pig price dropped from 28.34 yuan/kg to 27.77 yuan/kg!
However, just when people thought that a new round of pig price "falling tide" was coming, the domestic pig market, pig price rebounded, and the market showed an obvious upward trend again! According to the pig price system, on June 23rd 10, the average price of three yuan live pigs abroad rose by 0.24 yuan compared with the previous day, and the average price of live pigs rose to 28.0 1 yuan/kg, and the domestic price of live pigs rose at a low level. So, what is the fundamental reason for supporting the pig price counterattack?
According to the analysis of insiders, judging from the current profitability of the pig market, although the domestic feed cost has risen recently, the prices of soybean meal and bran have risen sharply, and the cost pressure at the breeding end has increased, the domestic pig price is at a high level in the previous pig cycles. Therefore, according to the current pig price, for domestic ordinary autotrophic farmers, the profit scale of pig fattening exceeds 1.300 yuan/head, and the profit space of farmers has been greatly improved.
Judging from the fundamentals of domestic pig supply, as we all know, according to official data, from July last year to April this year, the number of sows is in the process of continuous reduction. Therefore, after the second quarter of this year, the supply of live pigs will also enter the decline range, and this trend will be postponed until the first quarter of 2023! Therefore, at present, the pressure of tight supply of live pigs in the fourth quarter still exists!
Judging from the performance of the market demand side, after entering the third and fourth quarters, the domestic consumer market gradually turned into the peak season, and the pork consumption level entered a slow recovery stage, which will last until the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival. The fourth quarter is also the most vigorous stage of traditional pork consumption, but the supply of live pigs continues to decrease and the market demand is strong, which also supports the upward trend of pig prices!
In addition, in terms of domestic feed costs, due to the tense international geopolitical relations, the prices of energy and bulk agricultural products are rising, and the price of the US dollar is strengthening, which further aggravates the price increase of soybean meal and corn in the market. Recently, the domestic soybean meal market generally rose to 5400~5700 yuan/ton, up nearly 2000 yuan/ton compared with the normal stage in previous years. According to institutional research, the soybean meal market rises 100 yuan every time. The increase of feed cost will increase 30 yuan, which will directly increase the cost of raising pigs by 0.09 yuan. At present, the domestic pig fattening cost is about 1.8 yuan/kg higher than the same period of last year. The increase in breeding costs has intensified the reluctance and bullish sentiment of farmers in the market!
Finally, due to the consistency of the market's bullish price of pigs in the fourth quarter, this has also caused the pig industry to focus on weight gain! Recently, due to the cold weather, residents' acceptance of fat pork has increased, and the price of domestic big pigs is firm, with the price difference of standard fat as high as 1 yuan/kg. The speculative sentiment of farmers has increased sharply, and the phenomenon of secondary fattening in the market has also continued to ferment, which has also aggravated the difficulty of the circulation of pig sources in the market and supported the irrational rise of pig prices!
Judging from the market feedback, although the domestic pig price has obviously risen irrationally, and the excessive rise of pork price has also entered the stage of "first-class early warning", the National Development and Reform Commission has issued a document for three consecutive days, and some domestic pig enterprises have taken the lead in taking the initiative to assume social responsibilities and increase the scale of pig slaughter when necessary! However, due to the relatively flexible rhythm of domestic retail pig farms, the enthusiasm of retail investors to sell at low prices is biased, and the decline in pig prices has intensified the warming of market resistance. The rebound of retail pig farms in most parts of the north has also led to the unsustainable decline in pig prices, and the market has shown a downward trend!
Personally, domestic pig prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. However, due to the continuous fermentation of official control measures, pig prices are still weak and fluctuating! However, due to the advance of pig price increase, market pressure and secondary fattening performance are outstanding. In the middle and late fourth quarter, the increase in pig prices may be less than expected, and the increase in pig prices may be overdrawn in advance, reminding farmers to go out in time and not to blindly press the bar!
For three days! The "strongest voice" to regulate the pig price struck, but the pig price surged back. What's going on What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, and the pictures are from the Internet!