After 12, the central bank lowered the interest rate of excess deposit reserve from 0.72% to 0.35%. The last time was during the global financial crisis in 2008, it was lowered from 0.99% to 0.72%, and it has not been adjusted so far, which is rare in history.
In addition, the RRR was lowered for the third time during the year, releasing 400 billion long-term funds, and a total of 1.75 trillion funds were invested during the year.
In the past month or so, despite the crisis in the external market, the U.S. stock market broke four times in a row in March with an unprecedented 10 day, and Buffett cut to the bottom and lost to Delta Air Lines ..... But the A-share Shanghai Composite Index performed the strongest among the world's major stock indexes in March. Judging from the northward capital known as "smart money", in the past nine trading days, the accumulated net inflow was 654.38+067 billion yuan, which reversed the situation of net outflow for several consecutive days in the previous period. On April 3, the central bank announced two major advantages. Did A-shares turn around in April?
Points to be sorted out:
1, northbound capital: many times of accurate bargain-hunting and escape from the top, foresight, known as "smart money", stocks eaten against the trend need special attention. In March, the northbound capital outflow was 67.87 billion yuan, but nearly 30 stocks were significantly increased.
2. Increase or decrease of important shareholders: Dong and the industrial capital of listed companies undoubtedly know the listed companies best. In March, big finance was a key area that needed to be increased. According to a well-known private placement, the certainty probability of bank stocks is 100%.
3. Block transactions: Institutional seats are undoubtedly the focus of research, because most of them advocate value investment. Small and medium-sized enterprises are the main force with high discount rate, and institutional seats buy many game stocks.
4. Margin financing and securities lending: In March, six major industries achieved net financing purchases, with the net financing purchases of 74 stocks exceeding 1 100 million yuan, and the financing balance of 9 stocks increased by more than 1.000%.
5. Main capital flow: The main capital is distributed in three types of stocks against the trend. In the 20 trading days since March 4, the number of stocks with net inflow 1 billion has reached more than 40.
6. Institutional research: In addition to quarterly, semi-annual and annual reports, research is an important window to know the institutional trends in advance. It is worth noting that Wang Yawei, Gao Yi Assets, Danshuiquan and other top private placements are different and frequently appear in listed companies for investigation.
In March, northbound capital was 67.8 billion yuan, and 29 stocks increased significantly!
In March, with the spread of the epidemic around the world, major overseas stock indexes fell sharply, and the US stock market experienced four unprecedented fuses in March 10 days. Northbound funds, which have always been greatly influenced by the external market, also chose to temporarily avoid the edge in March.
According to the statistics of Choice, in March this year, the net outflow of northbound funds was 67.87 billion yuan, the highest in a single month since the opening of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect 20 14. At the same time, the southward capital inflow in March was 654.38+0263 billion yuan. This decrease and increase caused a certain degree of "blood loss" of A shares.
Since the opening of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect in June 20 1 14, in the following five years, there has been a net outflow of northbound funds in June 11. However, there were only six times when the net outflow of northbound funds exceeded10 billion yuan in a month. The last time the net outflow of northbound funds exceeded 50 billion yuan in a month was in May 2065438+2009, and the net outflow in that month was 53.67 billion yuan.
Although the large amount of northbound capital outflow in March made the market feel a little wrong, historically, whenever there is a large amount of northbound capital outflow with a scale of10 billion in a single month, there is a certain probability corresponding to the staged bottom of A shares, such as May 20 19, June 20 18 and June 20 10.
Comparing the trend chart of Shanghai stock index, we can find that the timing of selling funds northward is accurate most of the time, which is the so-called "smart money". For example, after a net outflow of 3.5 billion yuan in April of 20 15, the Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly by 3.83% in May of 20 15 and saw 5 15 in June of 20 15. 20 15, 10, 1 10, 12 showed net outflow for three consecutive months. 20 16, the Shanghai composite index fell by 22.65%. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated sideways for several months after the net outflow in April and May of 2065438+2009. After a net outflow of 10.5 billion yuan in June 20 18, the Shanghai Composite Index finally bottomed out after the second bottom in June 20 19. In February of 20 18, the net outflow was 2.6 billion yuan, and then the Shanghai Composite Index fell to the end of 20 18.
Analysts believe that in March this year, the record net outflow of northbound funds was 67.87 billion yuan, and the overseas epidemic data continued to soar. It remains to be seen whether the newly confirmed case data has turned the corner, the unemployment rate in the United States has soared, and whether the US stock market has launched a second wave of decline. Therefore, it is difficult to predict whether A shares will bottom out in April.
It should be noted that despite the rare outflow of A-shares of 67.8 billion yuan from northbound funds in March this year, some A-shares were added by northbound funds against the trend in March. Moreover, in the past nine trading days, the accumulated inflow of northbound funds was 654.38+067 billion yuan, which reversed the situation of net outflow for several consecutive days in the previous period.
Choice data shows that from March 9 to March 23, a total of 436 A shares were increased by northbound funds, accounting for 34% of all Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect stocks. Among these 436 A-shares, 22 A-shares increased their positions by more than 100%, among which the food price increased by as much as 1300% during the agricultural development in Suken, ranking first among all A-shares. On the surface, from March 9 to March 23, the share price of Suken Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. is relatively flexible. However, judging from the shareholding of Northbound Capital, foreign capital has no intention to continue to increase its positions. On March 23rd, after seeing the high shareholding ratio of Northbound Capital to Suken Agricultural Development, Northbound Capital began to lighten its positions on rallies. By April 1, the shareholding ratio of northbound capital had dropped to 0.77%.
In March, there were 29 stocks with a sharp increase in the shareholding ratio of Northbound Capital.
Judging from the above stocks, Huachuang Securities Research Report pointed out that from obeying security to cloud to new it, it is believed that the growth space is constantly opening. In 20 19, the company adjusted its business structure and released three business brands of Shen Xin Smart Security, Cloud Computing and New IT, covering three aspects: first, security services on the cloud network side; Second, private cloud, hosted cloud and hybrid cloud based on hyper-convergence technology; Third, infrastructure business includes desktop cloud, SD-WAN, application delivery and enterprise-level distributed storage EDS. From security to cloud to new IT, it is the embodiment of the company's innovation ability. With the continuous expansion of business boundaries, the company's growth space is further opened. For Kailitai, Guangfa Securities Research Report pointed out that the company is the leader in minimally invasive treatment of spine in China, and the company acquired Elliquence on 20 18, which has a broad growth space.
More breaks in the banking sector, the certainty probability 100%?
The A-share market was adjusted in March, and the overseas situation has been affecting the hearts of investors. Judging from the increase or decrease of important shareholders' holdings, there are still great differences in the views of industrial capital on the market outlook, but some companies have begun to increase their holdings to stabilize market confidence.
According to the statistics of the financial terminal of Oriental Fortune Choice, in March, there were 2,703 companies reducing their holdings and 485 companies increasing their holdings in the A-share market, and the ratio of reducing their holdings to increasing their holdings was 5.57: 1 (subject to the announcement date).
Big finance is a key area recently added. From March 23rd to 24th, the president of China Merchants Bank and other directors 10 increased their holdings of 4 1.99 million shares of China Merchants Bank, with a total amount of about 1.282 million yuan.
On the evening of 25th, Industrial Bank announced that some directors, supervisors and senior managers of the bank bought shares of the company from the secondary market with their own funds from March 23rd to 25th, 2020, totaling1779,900 shares, with the transaction price ranging from 15 yuan to 15.79 yuan per share.
In addition, China Ping An announced on March 2 that the company's 2020 core employee stock ownership plan and long-term service plan completed the stock purchase at the end of February, with a cumulative turnover of about 4.627 billion yuan, accounting for 0.3 16% of the total share capital. The average transaction price is about 80. 17 yuan/share.
The valuation of big finance has always been a hot topic in the market. The banking industry has basically been cut off. On March 3rd1day, Industrial Bank closed at 15.9 1 yuan per share, while its net assets per share in the third quarter of last year reached 23.38 yuan, with a P/B ratio of only 0.68 times. Because of its leading position as a retail bank, China Merchants Bank has been given a valuation premium in the market, and its current P/B ratio is about 1.4 times.
China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank both experienced a wave of decline in February and March. China Merchants Bank hit a record high of 40. 16 yuan per share in June 5,438+10, but it fell to 28.7 1 yuan per share in March 19, with a range drop of 28.5 1%.
It is worth mentioning that after the increase, the share prices of China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank in the secondary market have stabilized. From March 25th to April 2nd, the share price of China Merchants Bank rose moderately by more than 2%, while that of Industrial Bank rose by more than 3%.
But China Ping An, which increased its holdings earlier, was not so lucky. Since March, the overseas epidemic situation has been escalating, and China Ping An suffered the bad news that HSBC suspended its dividend. On March 23rd, China Ping An A shares fell to the lowest level in 66 yuan. The maximum floating loss of the above-mentioned core employee stock ownership plan and long-term service plan completed at the end of February is about 65,438+07.65%, and the maximum floating loss exceeds 800 million yuan.
From the historical experience, the beta property of the big financial sector is relatively heavy, that is, it mainly follows the market most of the time. However, due to factors such as high dividend yield and predictable performance, it is favored by long-term capital, and negative news sometimes provides good buying opportunities.
The most typical example is Ping An in China in 2008. When the subprime mortgage crisis broke out, China Ping An invested heavily in Fortis Bank with a loss of 22.8 billion yuan, and the share price of A shares once fell below the 20 yuan mark. Looking back on the past 12 years, the giant pit at that time was the starting point of China Ping 'an 12-year-old cattle.
Dong Baozhen, general manager of nonpolar funds, has been optimistic about banking stocks for many times. In late February, he said that the certainty chance of banking stocks was 100%. Because in China, if the banking industry has no investment value, how can the overall economy get better? What we value in our investment is that the desire for a better life will always be a part of human nature and will not change.
In March, small and medium-sized enterprises were the main force of the high discount rate of block trades, and institutional seats bought many game stocks.
In the 22 trading days of March 1 day, 2,075 large-scale transactions occurred, with a turnover of 48.05 billion yuan. Among them, there were 195 premium transactions, 299 fair transactions and158 discount transactions.
On March 3 1 day, the single-day turnover of block trades blew out, reaching 6.858 billion yuan, accounting for 14.27% of the monthly turnover. However, the premium transaction amount on that day was only 1 1.2 million yuan, accounting for 0. 16%, which was the lowest in that month. The transaction with the highest premium was on March 23rd. The bulk transaction of the day was 1, 456,5438+0 billion yuan, of which the premium transaction was 874 million yuan, accounting for 60.24%. The second highest proportion of premium transactions is March 1 1. The bulk transactions on that day were * * * 3.846 billion yuan, including 2.078 billion yuan, accounting for 54.03%. On March 6th, 3.545 billion yuan of bulk transactions occurred, including 65.438+42.7 billion yuan of premium transactions, accounting for 40.26%.
It is worth mentioning that the market performance is often weak on the trading days when the above premium block trades are high. On March 23rd, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.11%; In March 1 1, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.94%; On March 6th, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.2 1%.
The biggest transaction with the highest premium rate in March was Le Kai New Materials on March 9th. On that day, Le Kai New Materials traded 7513,000 shares at a price of 17.76 yuan per share, with a turnover of1334310,000 yuan. The buyer is the securities business department of Huatai Securities Beijing West Third Ring International Financial Center, and the seller is the securities business department of Admiralty Wealth Hefei Changjiang Middle Road. On March 9th, the closing price of new materials in Le Kai was 15. 14 yuan, and the premium rate reached 17.3 1%. After that, Le Kai's new materials fell with the broader market, closing at 12.93 yuan on March 3, and the quilt cover was 27. 19%.
Discount trading is the normal state of block trading. In March 1 day * * *, the discount rate of 684 bulk transactions was higher than 10%, and the discount rate of 539 transactions was between 5%- 10%. There are 358 households with a discount rate below 5%. Small and medium-sized enterprises are the main force of high discount rate.
Judging from the operation trend of institutional seats in March, Vanke A had a large turnover, selling 665,438+billion yuan and buying 3.9 billion yuan. Judging from the top stocks bought by institutional seats, we are convinced that we have been bought by 654.38 billion yuan, and the new halo network built by the data center has been bought by 459 million yuan. An obvious feature is to buy a lot of game stocks, such as Perfect World, Kunlun Wan Wei, century huatong, Youzu Network and Giant Network.
From the perspective of the stocks with the highest selling amount of institutional special seats, Vanke A, Ziguang and Chint are among the top sellers. It is worth noting that many pharmaceutical stocks have been sold by institutions, although the amount is not large, such as Dean Diagnostics, Jichuan Pharmaceutical, Lan Fan Medical and Renfu Medicine.
From the perspective of buying individual stocks in institutional seats, Shen Xin and Halo New Network, which are newly built, respectively received 65.438+68 million yuan and 459 million yuan, and bought a number of game stocks, such as Perfect World, Kunlun Wan Wei, century huatong, Youzu Network and Giant Network.
In March, the financing balance decreased by 40.4 billion yuan, and the financing customers bought 74 stocks, and the financing balance of 9 stocks doubled in one month.
In March, the A-share market fluctuated sharply, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 4.5 1% with an amplitude of 14.84%. In the context of market turmoil, financiers also tend to be cautious. In terms of industry, there are six major industries that have achieved net financing purchases, of which agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery are the first. 74 stocks bought more than 65.438 billion yuan, and 654.38+ 03 stocks bought more than 300 million yuan. Judging from the growth of financing balance, in March, the financing balance of 47 stocks with two financial targets increased by more than 50%, among which 9 stocks increased by more than 654.38+000%.
Wind statistics show that as of March 3 1 day, the financing balance was 1047444 billion yuan, a decrease of 40.458 billion yuan compared with February 28.
From the perspective of industries, in March, six major industries achieved net financing purchases, namely agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (6.467 billion yuan), building materials (490 million yuan), steel (343 million yuan), leisure services (208 million yuan), architectural decoration (654.38 billion yuan) and textiles and clothing (40 million yuan).
The net sales of 16 industry financing was more than 654.38 billion yuan, among which the net sales of electronic, computer and non-bank financial financing were the top, reaching 8.492 billion yuan, 4.655 billion yuan and 3.242 billion yuan respectively.
Founder Securities research report pointed out that in April, the preferred industries were automobiles, construction machinery and brokers. The supporting factor of automobile is that the decline of automobile sales growth rate continues to narrow, and the bottom of the boom picks up. The current valuation is at a relatively reasonable level. The continuous introduction of automobile consumption stimulus policies has become an important starting point to boost consumption. The supporting factor of construction machinery is that the most difficult moment has passed, and the follow-up will gradually improve marginally. The overall valuation is low and the safety margin is strong. The countercyclical hedging infrastructure policy is about to increase, benefiting construction machinery. The supporting factor of securities firms lies in the high certainty of performance growth. The overall valuation is reasonable and the margin of safety is high. The securities industry has entered the regulatory dividend release period.
From the perspective of individual stocks, although the balance of the two financial markets has decreased compared with the end of February, there are still 562 net purchases in the two financial markets, of which 155 stocks have a net purchase of more than 50 million yuan and 74 stocks have a net purchase of more than 1 100 million yuan. The cumulative net purchases of Muyuan and New Hope in March reached 3.54 billion yuan and 654.38+0.076 billion yuan respectively; The net purchases of Fiberhome Communications and Longji share financing are all above 500 million yuan; In addition, the net purchases of Zhengbang Technology, Tongwei, Heying Technology, Yuyue Medical and other 13 stocks exceeded 300 million yuan.
In addition, judging from the growth of financing balance, in March, there were 47 financing balances of the two financial targets that increased by more than 50%, of which 9 financing balances increased by more than 100%. As of March 365,438+0, the financing balance of Hanergy shares reached 230 million yuan, up 253.62% from the end of February, ranking first. In addition, the financing balance of 8 stocks including Donghu High-tech, Zhongtong Guomai and Chutian Expressway also increased by more than 100% in March.
From the top stocks of net financing, including Longji shares and Tongwei shares, the head enterprises of photovoltaic sector, and other low-end stocks such as AVIC Aircraft and Zijin Mining. Minsheng Securities Research Report pointed out that recently, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Notice on Relevant Matters Concerning the On-grid Electricity Price Policy for Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2020, and the photovoltaic electricity price policy officially landed in 2020. With the price drop of all links in the photovoltaic industry chain and the release of new capacity, the release of high-cost capacity will be accelerated. We believe that the head enterprises have relatively strong anti-risk ability and turnover ability, and it is expected that the accelerated clearance of backward production capacity will optimize the industry structure and further enhance the concentration.
The main funds are distributed in three types of stocks against the trend: the agricultural sector has become a "dark horse" for attracting gold, and the market has questioned the hot money speculation "Jinjian Rice Industry"
In March this year, the A-share market fell as a whole, and the main funds also adopted the strategy of shipping in March.
According to the statistics of Choice, among the 22 trading days in March this year, there were only five trading days when the main capital flowed into A shares, and the net inflow was small; The rest 17 trading days were net outflows of main funds, and the net outflows of main funds were close to 1000 billion yuan on March 9 and March 16.
Specific to the industry, according to Choice's statistics, in the 20 trading days since March 5, Shenwan's 28 sub-sectors all showed a net outflow of main funds, of which the industry with the smallest net outflow was leisure service industry, while the top three industries with the largest net outflow were electronics, computers and non-bank finance.
Specific to individual stocks, according to the statistics of Choice, in the 20 trading days since March 4, as many as 3,429 A shares have seen a net outflow of main funds.
Among them, A-shares with the largest net outflow of main funds are BOE A, ZTE, TCL Technology, China Ping An, Oriental Fortune, Iflytek, etc., among which BOE A's net outflow exceeds 654.38+0.3 billion yuan. This also corresponds to the three industries with the largest net outflow of main funds in the same period. At the same time, these stocks all fell during the period.
However, A shares never lack local opportunities. According to statistics, in the 20 trading days since March 4th, 367 A-shares still received the main capital net inflow, among which Yingjie Electric, Shangmei Ecology, Yili, Hengrui Pharma and other stocks with the largest net inflow scale.
It is worth noting that with the recent fermentation of agricultural stock market, a new "demon stock" represented by Jinjian rice industry has appeared in the market.
According to the statistics of Choice, as of the close of April 2, Jinjian Rice Industry has experienced 7 daily limit since the end of March this year. In the last four trading days, Jinjian Rice has pulled four daily limit; In addition, in the same period, agricultural product price increase concept stocks such as Agricultural Development Seed Industry and Liang Jing Holdings have also had three daily limit.
He believes that "there must be a bottom line in stock trading, and in areas involving people's livelihood, it is still impossible to let hot money speculate." Another investor feels that friends around him have recently asked if food prices will rise, and the voice of buying rice has increased.
Historically, there is always a lot of hot money behind the "monster stock". According to public information, since late March, Jinjian Rice has appeared on the Dragon and Tiger List seven times.
According to the statistics of Choice, the business departments that frequently bought Jinjian Rice Industry in the Dragon and Tiger List in late March included Great Wall Securities Ziyang Jiaozi Avenue, the second business department of Tuanjie Road in Lhasa, fortune securities, the second business department of East Ring Road in Lhasa, fortune securities, Huaxin Securities Shanghai Ruby Road, Huatai Securities Taiyuan Tiyu Road, Guotai Junan Shanghai Jiangsu Road and Galaxy Securities Beijing Fucheng Road.
It is worth mentioning that, judging from the financial report of Jinjian Rice Industry in recent years, this contrarian speculation of hot money may have little to do with its fundamentals. The data shows that since 2007, the non-net profit of Jinjian Rice has been negative for more than ten consecutive years. According to the 20 19 annual report issued by the company, the non-net profit deducted by the company in 20 19 was negative again. If there is not always non-recurring income to "adjust" profits, Jinjian rice industry may have become the object of delisting. In addition, in history, Jinjian rice industry has also "crossed the border" with other industries many times, but most of them gave up halfway.
Wang Yawei, Gao Yi Assets and Danshuiquan were busy with research, and their action targets were exposed.
Recently, the disclosure of annual reports of listed companies has entered an intensive period. From last year's technology stock market to now, it's time to hand in a paper. At this time, affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, institutions have started the "cloud research" model. What is the profitability of technology stocks with strong performance? How is it affected by the epidemic this year? These questions are the key points.
According to the data of Oriental Wealth, as of April 1 day, the number of institutional surveys in recent 1 month was 9,775, which was 4,869 times less than the previous period, with a decrease of 33%, including 3 148 times for Growth Enterprise Market and 4,572 times for small and medium-sized board. It is worth noting that the main board market was investigated 1407 times. According to the research companies, in the past 1 month, 186 listed companies have been investigated. It is worth noting that Wang Yawei and other top private placements frequently appear in listed companies for investigation.
In addition, in March, Wanda Information received public offerings including anxin fund, Bank of China Fund, China Europe Fund and China Merchants Fund. In addition, the field of private placement also includes private placement research on He Ju Investment, Chengquan Capital, Yuanlesheng Assets, Shangya Investment, Lin Jing Assets and Gaoyi Assets. It is understood that Wanda Information is a leading software and service provider in the field of urban informatization in China. The main business includes people's livelihood informatization and healthy city, and the business radiates medical care, medical insurance, medicine and government affairs. Since China Life took office, it has comprehensively adjusted and sorted out the company's business, finance and management. At present, all adjustments of the company have been basically completed.
Vision: Liu Yang
Typesetting: Wu Yongjiu Yang Shihan
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