At present, the game objects in the market are mainly epidemic situation, global inflation level and the corresponding interest rate policy. Many consumer companies are mainly affected by the epidemic, and the whole consumer industry is particularly dependent on the flow of people. Only when people move can they socialize, and only when they socialize can they produce all kinds of additional consumption besides survival. At present, the fluctuation of the global inflation rate has also caused the fluctuation of the cost of consumer companies, which further affects the short-term profits. Therefore, I personally think that the object of the short-term game of consumer companies is mainly the epidemic situation, not the so-called company operation. Although there are very few companies with outstanding performance, they will all be subject to the big environment.
We often pay attention to the current price of our stock holdings and ignore the continuity of our stock holdings, instead of paying attention to a long-term average price fluctuation of stocks. Take the Chinese medicine industry as an example. In fact, 9% of the companies are at the bottom. Although the stock price fluctuates, most companies in the long-term average line have not risen for 1 years, but what we want to grasp is the difference in rhythm between stocks in the industry. That is, holding a single stock with a relatively large increase all day has been repeatedly emphasized, but from the perspective of industry universality, the market of the whole sector is still in the stage of not starting, which is determined by the characteristics of the industry. Aside from sudden diseases such as epidemic, it is difficult to have a sudden outbreak of a disease in a short period of time. It is a long-term process, an industry with a very easy prospect and a great prospect, and it is easy for holders to control themselves because of short-term anxiety.
At present, the structural nature of the market is extremely obvious, and traditional industries are facing many challenges. Many traditional industries are associated with real estate and infrastructure to drive the economy. Although some traditional industries have experienced short-term cyclical growth, the whole environment is still under pressure. The other part of the traditional manufacturing industry is to serve the automobile industry, especially the traditional fuel vehicles and electric vehicles. In fact, the parts of the automobile industry have been simplified once, and the parts needed by an engine are far greater than that of a motor. At present, new energy vehicles stand out, and the total consumption of the whole automobile is under pressure. In the future, some people in this industry will be naked. At present, the policy of China government is not to engage in flood irrigation. In fact, I don't think it is qualified for flood slam, because all the water discharged must be matched to generate future cash flow, and not all the water that has not been converted will turn into liabilities and be difficult to digest. Therefore, personally, I almost completely avoided these traditional industries, and I can miss out on not making money and not investing.