199665438+February 16, People's Daily published a special commentator's article "Correctly Understanding the Current Stock Market". This is the first "quasi-editorial" about the stock market since the founding of New China. It was intended to remind investors to have a clear understanding of the current situation of the China stock market, but it triggered a "stock earthquake", and the stock market fell across the board, making investors dumbfounded.

The commentator's article said that stock trading has become a hot topic in society, and people from all walks of life are scrambling to enter the market. In the past few months, the number of new investors in the stock exchange has exceeded 8 million, with a cumulative increase of more than 2 1 10,000. Shareholders have accounted for a considerable proportion of the urban population. Since April this year, the stock market has gradually picked up and soared after 10. From April 1 to February 9 1, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 120%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 340%. This is rare in the international securities market. Such a craze is abnormal and irrational.

Commentators pointed out that the main reasons for the current extraordinary surge in the stock market are: First, large institutions manipulate the market. Some big capital companies take advantage of the skyrocketing stock market and retail investors to follow suit, frequently sit in the village and take turns to speculate. Most of these large households are state-owned enterprises, giving orders by virtue of their status and relationships and making huge profits. Second, banks illegally entered the market. Third, securities institutions illegally overdraw. Fourth, the news media added fuel to the fire. Some newspapers, radio stations, TV stations, radio stations, stock review programs and securities consulting institutions rarely give risk warnings, but make noise blindly, and some even spread rumors to mislead investors. Some illegal publications make irresponsible remarks in order to attract readers and reap benefits, such as "making a lot of money in a big bull market". Fifth, mislead investors to follow suit. In fact, there is no bull in the stock market forever, there are always ups and downs, and the skyrocketing will inevitably fall, and stock markets in various countries are no exception. Because a considerable number of investors entered the market during the rising period of the stock market, they did not fall, lacked risk awareness, believed that they misled public opinion and mistakenly thought that the stock market would not fall. There is also a psychological factor that cannot be ignored. Due to the remarkable effect of curbing inflation this year, the bank cancelled the value-added subsidy for new savings and lowered the deposit and loan interest rates twice. Many citizens think that savings deposits have a low rate of return, which is not as good as stock trading, with less risk and more income. This is a misunderstanding.

Commentators said that by examining the development history of stock markets in various countries, it can be seen that there is no stock market that only rises but does not fall, and the slow rise may slow down, and the skyrocketing will inevitably plummet. This is the * * * law of stock markets in various countries. Soaring will lead to plunging, which is determined by objective economic laws. Price depends on value, and the serious deviation of price from value will only be temporary, short-term and conditional, but not long-term, permanent and absolute. However, in China, due to the small number and scale of listed companies and their small share in the national economy, the sharp rise and fall of the stock index does not reflect the overall situation of the national economy, but mainly reflects the degree of speculation in the market. In other words, in the early stage of market development, the main reason for the stock market to skyrocket and plummet was excessive speculation by market participants.

The commentator's article emphasizes that the stock market's ups and downs have serious consequences for investors and society. Many institutional and individual investors disagree that the soaring stock market will inevitably lead to a plunge. They all agreed that Hong Kong will return to China next year and the 15th National Congress will be held. The government must do a good job in the economy and will never let the stock market fall. This is a very confusing view of stock market estimation. It is true that the government wants to do a good job in the economy, but the stock market crash will never support the market, nor can it afford it. Investors should have no illusions about this. It is the same in any country to invest in the stock market at your own risk and make money and lose money. At present, the stock market has reached a very abnormal state, and the market risk is getting bigger and bigger, which needs to attract enough attention from investors.

According to the current situation, the commentator's article puts forward eight tasks: First, further strengthen supervision. Second, continue to openly handle cases of violations. Third, implement the price limit system and improve the market information disclosure system. Fourth, establish a system of no entry into the securities industry. Fifth, strengthen risk management. Sixth, increase supply. Seventh, do a good job of public opinion guidance. Eighth, implement a centralized and unified management system. All regions and departments should not interfere in the stock market by themselves, but should be consistent with the central authorities, consciously safeguard the centralized and unified management system of the national securities market, implement the state's principles and policies on the securities market, and maintain local market order and social stability.

(People's Network Information)

1at the beginning of 996, the China stock market was a bear for three years, and many stocks fell to the extreme. After the Spring Festival, the stock market opened higher and higher, and the macro policies were also favorable. On March 30th, the central bank announced that it would stop adding new value-added savings business from April 1 day. On April 1 day, the State Council instructed "steady development and appropriate acceleration". There is also a struggle between the two exchanges to cheer up. On June 20th, Shanghai Branch of the Central Bank announced that it welcomed foreign brokers to open business offices in Shanghai. Shanghai also launched the Shanghai Stock Exchange 30 Index. Under the pressure of Shanghai stock market, Shenzhen launched 30 outstanding companies to participate in the competition. Since then, the Shenzhen-Shanghai market has gone red. 1 from April 65438 to April1to February 12, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 124%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 346%, and more than 100 stocks rose more than five times. The two leaders are even more ambitious. SDB started in 6 yuan and reached 20.5 yuan in June 65438+February 65438+February. Sichuan Changhong 7 yuan started training, which rose to 27.45 yuan in early February and 65438+February.

Since June, 5438+00, the management has been blowing a cold wind, and has successively issued regulations later known as "twelve gold medals", which generally include: the notice on regulating the behavior of listed companies, the measures for the administration of stock exchanges, and the notice on resolutely stopping the overdraft behavior of stock issuance.

One of the twelve gold medals is 1996 12 16. With the consent of China Securities Regulatory Commission, Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange decided to impose a 10% price limit on the trading of stocks and fund securities listed on the two exchanges, and to implement an information disclosure system. On the same day, People's Daily published a special commentator's article to correctly understand the current stock market. As a result, most stocks fell below the limit.