Recently, the market has experienced violent shocks. Last week (May 6-10), the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 4.52%, with the amplitude exceeding 1% in all five trading days and exceeding 3% in two trading days. In this context, china securities journal reporter interviewed a number of active equity fund managers and learned that Public Offering of Fund is generally more active in positions, but it shows a trend of "confluence" with certainty in the specific configuration structure.
No lightning
Last Monday (May 6), the A-share market underwent a sharp adjustment, with the three major indexes all hitting the biggest one-day drop in the year, and the two cities reappeared the daily limit of thousands of shares.
"The beginning of' five poverty and six unique' is quite tragic. Changes in the external environment have led to the venting of market sentiment that was previously consolidated at a high level. On the whole, the callback after the market rose sharply, the performance of listed companies was less than expected, and the external environment changed, and other factors reached a * * * vibration at this point in time, which triggered a short-term centralized venting of market sentiment and the market trend was out of control. Subsequently, the market ushered in a clear understanding of the consolidation and game period. Later (Friday), panic recovered, investors tended to be calm and rational, and the market rebounded. " Putian analyzed.
Puyin AXA Fund believes that the direct cause of Monday's market crash is the change of external environment. Secondly, from the beginning of this year to mid-April, the major indexes such as the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and the Growth Enterprise Market all rose by more than 30% in a short time, and the valuations of major indexes quickly recovered to the historical average level, which basically digested the pessimistic expectation of 20 18, and the market floating profit was under great pressure. Third, the market's fear that liquidity will tighten the margin in the future has curbed asset prices. However, Puyin AXA believes that investors need not be too entangled in changes in monetary policy. Since the end of April, the regulatory authorities have repeatedly stressed that monetary policy will be moderately fine-tuned with the economic situation, and there will be no major adjustment, and the overall situation will remain stable. In addition, the external environment itself is unpredictable, and the impact on the secondary market is mainly reflected in the emotions of participants.
How do fund managers operate when the market fluctuates? Putian said that it is difficult to predict the specific market trend at present, but the overall position is still positive and stable. "In the case of a sharp drop in the market, there will be adjustments in positions due to liquidity arrangements. However, this is mainly a contingency measure for short-term market changes. I am still cautiously optimistic about the overall position. At present, the position is still higher than the fund contract requirements and industry peers. After all, if there is a position, there will be no rebound, and there will be a future if there is a position. " According to the data, on May 6th, the net value of equity funds managed in seven days was larger than that of Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, but smaller than that of Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and Growth Enterprise Market Index.
Another fund manager who performed well in the first quarter said that the change of his product position was mostly a passive behavior after the fund scale surged. "The sharp rise in product scale highlights the necessity of position control. From a purely market point of view, although the market was consolidating in April, the risk of a sharp decline was small, so in terms of position arrangement, besides ensuring product liquidity, it was still positive and optimistic. Afterwards, it was proved that such positive optimism encountered a cold current in the market, but at the end of April, most people failed to predict the short-term shock of the market in May. " The fund manager said.
The market crash also unexpectedly exposed the opening of some sub-new funds. The data shows that some sub-new funds have experienced wide market adjustment during the period of opening positions, and the change of fund net value is more consistent with the change of relevant indexes and benchmarks, indicating that some products have fast opening positions and high positions. "When the new fund opened a position, the market entered a high level of consolidation, but it was not enough to prepare for the market crash. On the contrary, high consolidation will make the investment value of some stocks appear. Moreover, for long-term investors like Public Offering of Fund, most of them are not active in timing, and the previous positions were based on optimistic judgments about the market outlook. I didn't expect the change of the external environment to come so suddenly. For many fund managers, it is difficult to adjust positions in advance due to the lack of systematic countermeasures. " Researcher of Galaxy Securities Fund said.
Structure "bounces back" to certainty
"In the current complex market environment, it is necessary to optimize the investment structure. At present, I mainly make dynamic adjustments in consumer and technology stocks. " Qi Tian said that while the market fluctuated, although the position was still high, some structural adjustments were made. China securities journal reporter found that at present, most fund managers insist on certain opportunities in investment, and the allocation is mainly in the consumer industry characterized by stability and the technology industry aiming at innovation and development.
Specifically, the consumer industry is still one of the core configurations of the fund. The new era securities analyst said that from the data of fund public offering in the first quarter, the fund mainly increased its position in finance, forced consumption and reduced its position in growth, cycle and manufacturing. In terms of major sectors, in the first quarter, the market value of compulsory consumption, optional consumption, growth, finance, cycle and other publicly raised funds increased by 26.98%, 7.86%, 18.05%, 24.23%, 5.3 1% and/kloc-0 respectively compared with 2066. The chain changes were 1.93, -0.84, -2.06, 5.20,-1. 13 and -3. 10 percentage points respectively, which greatly increased the allocation of financial and compulsory consumption sectors.
In April, although the market is consolidating, the consumer industry is still the "source of living water" for the fund's income. According to the data, some equity funds achieved good results in April, and these outstanding funds mainly held agricultural and consumer stocks. Jin Chuang He Xin Fund said that the growth rate of social financing scale gradually stabilized at the beginning of 20 19, and the market began to gradually expect the economy to bottom out, and the valuation of the consumer industry recovered significantly. At the micro level, some leading companies in the consumer industry performed better than expected in the first quarter. 1-2 Real estate sales and second-hand housing sales in cities picked up in the first quarter, and the pessimistic expectations of the consumer industry in the post-real estate cycle were also greatly repaired.
In addition, the expectation of foreign capital inflow is also an important reason why the consumer industry is favored by the fund. Li Yaozhu, deputy general manager of the international business department of Guangfa Fund, believes that China's consumer industry is one of the most competitive industries in the world, and the growth of per capita income, rising demand and changes in consumption structure will become the long-term driving force for the sustained growth of consumer enterprises. In the last two years since March, 20 17, the industries in which foreign capital prefers to flow are highly concentrated, and large consumption such as food and beverage, household appliances, medicine and biology are the most popular. The second expansion of MSCI will be ushered in May this year. In the medium and long term, the degree of foreign participation in A-shares will continue to increase, and the persistent preference of institutions for leading consumer enterprises is expected to further improve the valuation level of the consumer sector.
Wang Gui, head of the Science and Technology Group of harvest fund Research Department, said that in the long run, science and technology stocks have a significant "alpha" and are investment opportunities that should not be missed. Wang Gui, for example, said that in the early 1990s, information technology, as a narrow field of science and technology, accounted for a very low proportion in the US capital market, only 6.3%. 2/kloc-0 At the beginning of the century, driven by the Internet wave, the proportion of science and technology sectors reached 33.6%. Although the bubble burst later and its proportion declined, technology is still the largest sector at present, accounting for the highest proportion.
In a large-scale market environment, Putian said that it mainly makes dynamic adjustments in two types of stocks: consumption and technology. One end is the pursuit of stability, and the other end is the expectation of innovation, drifting with the flow between the two. However, there are also fund managers who invest in technology stocks more thoroughly and resolutely. "Consumption represents a predictable and steady investment opportunity, but the market has quickly given this opportunity a corresponding valuation. The greater opportunity of A shares should exist in technology stocks. Whether it is the need of domestic economic transformation and upgrading or the need of coping with external environmental changes, science and technology industry will be the focus of development. From the perspective of development direction and development space, technology stocks will definitely lose consumer stocks and even lead consumer stocks. Science and technology innovation board, the introduction of registration system and institutional innovation are also solid foundations for the development of science and technology industry. However, the investment in technology stocks needs to be carefully selected, which is difficult and risky. Despite this, I still concentrate 70% of my stock positions on technology stocks, including integrated circuits, 5G, financial technology, and network security. " A fund manager in Shanghai said.
Adjustment is a good opportunity for layout.
After the market fluctuated widely, the fund remained optimistic about the market outlook. Puyin AXA Fund predicts that the market will still show a pattern of large shocks in the future, but Puyin AXA believes that the resilience of the A-share market is gradually increasing, which will breed more structural opportunities and will continue to pay attention to opportunities in finance, consumption, photovoltaics, agriculture, semiconductors and other industries.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, believes that the golden decade cycle of A-share market has begun, and now it is time for confidence and patience. Only by insisting on value investment, actively embracing high-quality white stocks and being a good shareholder of the company can we avoid market fluctuations, cross the bull-bear cycle and gain capital appreciation.
Shi Bo, deputy general manager and chief investment officer of southern fund, said that he is still optimistic about the trend of A-share slow cattle. If the market is too pessimistic, the investment value will attract off-exchange funds and additional foreign capital to repair, similar to this year's 1 market; If the short-term rise is too fast, the fundamentals of overdraft will also trigger related reverse fluctuations, similar to the recent callback shock. It is really difficult to slow down the cattle, but it is also possible to relax to a tortuous bull market trend, and its central rising speed will be similar to that of the slow cattle.
Debon Fund said that in the long run, the value of leading companies in the A-share market will be reflected. The launch of science and technology innovation board and financial system reform will further promote the mature development of China's capital market, and overseas funds will continue to flow into A shares, which will become an important force to promote the development of China's capital market. At this time, market adjustment may be an important layout point, and long-term high-quality assets may have a good value range.
(Article Source: china securities journal)