Time: May 2006/65438+June Author: Zhai Zhenwu, School of Social and Population Studies, Renmin University of China
At the end of the 20th century, after more than 20 years' efforts, the people of China basically achieved the grand goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way. The ratio of GNP to 1980 has quadrupled, and the per capita GDP has reached 1000 USD. People's living standards have been greatly improved, and profound historical changes have taken place in China society.
In terms of population, after more than 20 years' efforts, the momentum of excessive population growth in China has been effectively controlled and the population pressure has been alleviated. In recent ten years, the population growth rate has been declining. In 2002, the national population growth rate was 6.45‰, which was 46% lower than 1 1.87‰ in 1980. Worldwide, China is a country with a low fertility level, and its total fertility rate is very close to that of developed countries. At the same time, with the continuous growth of the huge population, the problems such as the one-child education, the sex ratio at birth, the shortage of urban labor force, the aging population structure, the expanding floating population, and the low ability of families, especially rural families, to provide for the elderly are intertwined. The population problem in China has not been simplified and reduced, but has become more complicated and severe.
The current population situation in China.
Death is one of the three major factors (fertility, death and migration) that determine the dynamic change of population. The level of death and the cause of death are not only the basic indicators reflecting the level of social and healthy development, but also the basic factors determining the future population development.
(A) the current level of death in China.
1, average life span
The average life expectancy in China in the early 1950s was about 48 years [1]. In the early 1980s, life expectancy rose to about 66 years old, 65,438+0,990,69 years old, and in 2000 it was about 765,438+0 years old.
From a vertical perspective, we noticed that from 1950 to 1982, the average life expectancy in China increased by about 17 years, with an average annual increase of 0.53 years. From 1982 to 1990, the average life expectancy increased by 3 years, with an average annual increase of 0.38 years. From 1990 to 2000, the average annual increment of life expectancy per capita decreased to 0.30 years. Obviously, with the increase of life expectancy, the average annual increment of life expectancy is gradually decreasing.
Worldwide, in the first half of 1950s, the life expectancy of the world population was 46.5 years, including 66. 1 year in developed countries and 4 1 year in developing countries. In the first half of 1980s, the life expectancy of the world population was 59.5 years, including 73. 1 year in developed countries and 57.3 years in developing countries. In the second half of 1990s, the life expectancy of the world population was 65 years, including 74.9 years in developed countries and 63 years in developing countries [2] [3]. China's life expectancy has been higher than that of developing countries and the world. Since 1980s, the life expectancy of China population has been about 4 years higher than the world average. However, compared with developed countries, the average life expectancy of China population is obviously lower than that of them, but the gap is narrowing. In the early 1950s, the average life expectancy in China was lower than that in developed countries 18 years. I was about 8 years old in the 1980s, but now I am about 5 years old.
2. Infant mortality rate
Historically, the infant mortality rate in China is very high. It reached about 200‰ in 1930s. After the founding of New China, the infant mortality rate dropped rapidly: about 65,438 0.38 ‰ in the early 1950s, 35‰ in the early 1980s, 32‰ in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and 30‰ in 2000. In 2000, the infant mortality rate in the world was 57‰, including 8‰ in developed countries and 63 ‰ in developing countries.
In 2002, according to the monitoring statistics of the Ministry of Health, China's infant mortality rate was 29‰, which was in the forefront of developing countries, less than half of the average level of developing countries (6 1‰) and far lower than that of Asia (54‰), but the gap was still obvious compared with developed countries.
(2) The current fertility level in China.
Since 1990, with the development of family planning and the change of population situation in China, the quality of population survey data has deteriorated. During the period of 1990, the social and economic development in China was very rapid, and people's values, including the concept of fertility, changed significantly. At the same time, family planning has been highly valued by governments at all levels, and the work has been significantly strengthened. Although there are various signs that the fertility rate is declining, accurate and reliable data have not been collected to reflect this change. During the period of 1990, China has not released the official total fertility data clearly. At first, the census data of 1990 was used, and later, the total fertility rate of 1.8 was always used, or it was expressed in a vague way that it reached the replacement level or below. It is hoped that the 2000 census will reveal the mystery of China's fertility level in the 1990s. However, the total fertility rate obtained from the 2000 census was unexpectedly about 1.3, which was unexpectedly low. Because the policy fertility rate of family planning is about 1.5, if the total fertility rate reaches 1.3, it means that the national fertility rate not only reaches 100%, but also far exceeds the requirements of the family planning policy. However, it is difficult for people to accept the results of the census because many rural unplanned births have been found in many typical surveys. It is considered that there are serious omissions in the census data, especially the birth population.
The quality problem of the 2000 census forced demographers to use various methods to estimate the underreporting of the census, thus estimating the fertility level of1990s. Up to now, many positive and effective efforts have provided important enlightenment for us to understand the fertility level of1990s.
China demographers Zhang Weimin, Cui Hongyan, Yu Xuejun, Wang Jinying, Guo Zhigang and others mainly used previous census data to study the fertility rate in1990s. Although most theoretical and practical workers think that the fertility rate can't be as low as reflected in several surveys, the main crux of birth statistics is the omission and concealment, and the estimation of fertility level should first consider the omission of birth and adjust it greatly upwards, but some scholars' research shows that even if the omission and concealment of birth population are considered, the fertility level in China has actually reached a certain level.
Due to the serious problems in the quality of population survey data, various estimation results based on population survey data are "unstable" from the beginning. In order to solve this problem, one of the best ways is to find reliable data outside the population survey data system to estimate the fertility level in1990s. Our analysis and comparison of various related data show that the data of primary school enrollment by age in the education statistics system is the most valuable as the benchmark data for estimating the fertility level.
Judging from the estimated results, China's fertility rate reached the replacement level at 199 1, and then further declined, lower than the replacement level. The estimated results show that the total fertility rate in China in 2000 was between 1.62- 1.73.
(3) The current population migration and mobility in China.
Because of the household registration system in China, the migration of population in China is a special form-population mobility. In the early 1980s, the number of floating population in China was very small, about 2 million, and the main part was migration. However, after the 1990s, the floating population increased rapidly, reaching about 65.438+0.2 billion in 2000, accounting for almost 654.38+00% of the total population. According to the data of the 2000 census, there are144.39 million people whose current residence is inconsistent with their registered residence. Among them, there are 42.42 million people across provinces and 1.0 1.97 million people in the province. Among the inconsistent population in the province, 23.32 million people are separated from their families in urban areas.
The flow direction of population movement in China has obvious characteristics, that is, it is concentrated in four regions: three big and one small. The "Big Three" refers to Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong, and the small one refers to Xinjiang.
The age structure of floating population is characterized by younger age, older age and concentrated young and middle-aged people. About half of the floating population is concentrated in the age group of 20-34. Among them, the group aged 25-29 accounted for the highest proportion, reaching 15.3%. The distribution density of floating population gradually decreases along the two directions of high and low age groups, forming a short pyramid. From the perspective of mobility, the young and middle-aged population is more mobile than the young and middle-aged population.
Among the immigrants who flow to Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong, the majority are engaged in commerce, service industry and industrial production. In Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong, 40.89%, 50.78% and 76.6% of the migrants are engaged in production and transportation equipment operators and related occupations, accounting for 39.5 1%, 32.63% and 65,438+respectively. If compared by gender, among the population flowing into Beijing, women are mainly engaged in commerce and service industries, while men are mainly engaged in the production of transportation equipment operators and related personnel. Shanghai is the same as Beijing in this respect. There is little difference in occupations between the sexes of the population flowing to Guangdong.
Four. Trends and challenges of population development in China in the future.
Total population size
The two most important factors affecting the fertility rate and population size in China are the process of urbanization and modernization and the change of fertility policy. According to several most possible change schemes, we investigated the future development trend of China's total population (high school and low school scheme). As can be seen from Figure 8, if the current fertility policy is basically stable, and only adjustments and improvements are made in the future, the total population of China may remain below 65.438+0.5 billion in the future.
Labor force scale
From 2005 to 20 15, the working-age population in China will continue to increase, from 940 million to10/10 10. After that, different schemes will lead to different trends.
According to the basic trend, the number of working-age population in the future will begin to decline rapidly around 2030, from nearly 654.38+billion to 820 million to 860 million in 2050. In the past, China faced the problems of labor surplus and underemployment, and never experienced the rapid decline of labor force, so the rapid decline of labor force will constitute a great variable for future development. Moreover, the decline of the working-age population is accompanied by the aging of the working-age population.
age
Around 2050, the proportion of the elderly over 65 will reach 22-24%.
Migration and mobility
The next few decades will be a period for China to build a well-off society in an all-round way and realize modernization. Many times, modernization is actually synonymous with urbanization. With the modernization of China, it will be the biggest urbanization wave in human history. At present, China's floating population has reached 65.438+0.4 billion. According to the urban development plan of China, there will be 654.38+200 million people living in cities in the future. Because of China's special system, this kind of population migration to cities appears in the form of floating population. In the future, the mortality rate in China will continue to decline steadily and slowly, and the fertility rate in China will basically remain at a relatively stable level. However, the population will migrate and flow in a larger scale and a wider geographical area. Population mobility will be the most important force to shape the future population situation in China, and it will also be the most influential population variable to the future economic and social development in China.
However, for such an important subject, we are far behind in data collection, research methods and research depth. On the whole, the prediction and analysis of floating population in China is very insufficient. Take Beijing as an example, the annual birth population in Beijing is only about 654.38 million, while the floating population is as high as 4 million. The main population problem in Beijing is not the change of birth rate, but the floating population, but we don't know much about the floating population. When planning the urban population in Beijing, the prediction of the floating population size is often wrong.
Population mobility will be the variable that has the greatest impact on the economic and social development of China, and it is also the field that we know least about at present. The biggest challenge for China demographers in the future may not come from death research and fertility research, but from floating population research.
note:
[1]: Liang He Co-edited. , National Birth Control Sampling Survey Data Volume (Death and Migration), China Population Publishing House, 1993.
[2]: (Japan) Yasuko Hayase. Changes in mortality and cause of death structure in developing countries. Statistical data set of Asian Economic Research Institute.1March 986.
[3]: United Nations. World population forecast (2000).
[4]. Shen Cai. Study on infant mortality in China. Edited by Chang Chongxuan. Proceedings of Beijing Seminar on Sampling Survey of Family Planning in China. China Population Publishing House.1May 1993, p. 557.
[5]. United States Population Advisory Bureau. World Population Data Table (2000). Prepared by China Population Information Research Center.