Editor | Sun Ming China Merchants Bank is on fire!
After passing through the magical 2020 and entering the more uncertain 2021, China Merchants Bank suddenly "rioted" in the capital market. The stock price rose more than the whole of last year in just one month. If calculated from the lowest point last year, the stock price has nearly doubled.
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It should be pointed out that China Merchants Bank is not a small-cap stock. Its current market value has reached 1.38 trillion yuan, which is a typical dancing elephant.
What is the concept of 1.38 trillion?
Such a market value is second only to Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank among banking stocks.
According to the market capitalization calculation of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, China Merchants Bank has even surpassed China Construction Bank, and is only four daily limits behind ICBC.
But there is another side to high market capitalization. China Merchants Bank's profits are only one-third of those of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.
And if ranked in terms of asset size in 2019, China Merchants Bank's total assets are 7.4 trillion yuan, while "Universe Bank" has exceeded 30 trillion yuan. The two are not in the same grade at all.
But it is such a target that is attracting the favor of institutions and ordinary investors.
The latest institutional investment data shows that as many as 914 institutions hold positions in China Merchants Bank (tradable shares), of which 869 are funds alone. It is the sixth largest institutional holding in A-shares and the largest institutional holding in banks.
Recently, heavyweight investment institutions have frequently investigated banks.
What exactly does this mean?
Who is speculating on China Merchants Bank?
Why is there so much speculation about China Merchants Bank?
What kind of changes are the ideas and logic of institutional stock selection undergoing?
What is the bubble and quality of China Merchants Bank?
Is the carnival of bank stocks already here?
It may take time to answer these questions, but no matter what, China Merchants Bank is an object worth "dissecting".
Entering 2021, China Merchants Bank made a sharp counterattack, rising by more than 25% in more than a month, while last year it only rose by 20.58%.
This performance is unparalleled even in the face of several trillion-dollar state-owned banks - the activity of a trillion-dollar "big plate" joint-stock bank is actually as active as several city commercial banks that have skyrocketed.
Also since last year, A-share stocks have become popular in various "Maotai" stock prices. Seeing that there are more and more voices saying that they are bullish on banks, investors who did not "get on the train" and "Yinmao" this time are once again troubled by shortfalls.
Picture/Visual China However, there was a "riot" in bank stocks, and investors who were waiting for brokerage stocks to drive the bull market were a little disappointed.
A retail investor with many years of experience in A-share investment told AI Financial News: "Everyone used to claim that securities companies were the standard bearers of the bull market. Last year's group market was so active, and the business of securities companies was also reflected in the financial reports. Unexpectedly, banks
Stocks started to rise first.” Fundamental support brought by macroeconomics, tightening of funds has pushed up credit interest rates, cooling of risk appetite in the secondary market, the sharp reduction in the threat of Internet finance “snatching orders”, and the impact of the epidemic and capital concessions.
The financial report exceeded expectations... The market's optimistic view on bank stocks can be summarized as "the right time, the right place and the right people".
If the funds in the group are worried about the tightening of market capital, they may look for more stable investment targets. Bank stocks that are in the midst of a wave of net losses are considered by many investors to be the best choice.
Judging from the trend of banks, there were two surges in July and November last year, but they soon fell back sharply.
Although China Merchants Bank is also a target of institutional alliances, its performance is not good.
At the top of institutional holdings, there are industry leaders such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Ping An, Midea Group, CATL, China Merchants Bank, China Duty Free, Luxshare Precision, and Hengrui Pharmaceuticals. However, China Merchants Bank only rose by less than 21% last year.
%, it is the worst-performing group stock among the top 10 institutional holdings except Ping An.
Why can China Merchants Bank become another "Chosen One" this time?
Some people think it is the market differentiation, some people think it is the advantage of the high-growth retail track, and some people think it is the boost from financial reports.
In any case, from hitting a new low on March 19 last year to today, China Merchants Bank's stock price has increased by more than 80%, while the bank index has increased by less than 17% during the same period.
Compared with Xiamen Bank, Hangzhou Bank, Ningbo Bank and other city commercial banks, this performance is definitely not the craziest, but as a "large cap (market capitalization)" bank stock, doubling the market is rare.
As a result of China Merchants Bank's stock price soaring, its total market value has continued to surpass that in the A-share market.
On the last trading day before the Spring Festival in 2021, China Merchants Bank once rose by more than 2% in early trading, with its stock price hitting a new high of 56.40 yuan/share. It closed back to 54.55 yuan/share. Its current total market value of 1.38 trillion ranks third in the entire A-share market.
The previous CCB and ICBC are already leading by less than 500 billion.
Although China Merchants Bank's profitability is still far behind that of ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and China Construction Bank, it surpasses all other domestic listed banks, and its profits are expected to exceed 97.3 billion yuan in 2020.