Up to now, the ten thousand macro-timing and multi-strategy of Huanghai Management has great advantages, and it has a great probability to become the "champion base" of the annual equity fund. The rapid development and change of the industry is particularly obvious in the "championship battle" of public offering funds. Since the beginning of this year, the products of many well-known fund managers have been challenged, and small-scale "dark horses" have appeared frequently.
In the final sprint stage, some fund managers choose to focus on defense, and some fund managers think they can pay attention to some new industry opportunities, such as development and security topics. For the main line of next year, the market is still exploring.
Countdown of "Final Examination" of Stock Fund
From the perspective of fund types, this year's flexible allocation of funds has the greatest probability of winning the championship. At present, the macro-timing strategy of Wan Jia in the Yellow Sea ranks first, and the fund Wan Jia Xinli in charge of the Yellow Sea ranks second. In addition, Jin Yuanshun An Yuanqi managed by Miao Weibin is currently ranked third. This small-cap value fund has attracted the attention of many investors with its "dark horse" performance this year.
Among the partial-share hybrid funds, at present, the first one is only A selected by 10,000 families managed by Huanghai. In addition, Zhou Haidong's return in Chinese business selection management and Zhongrong Jin Tuo's return in R&D innovation management are relatively high. Among ordinary equity funds, Bird and Tang Ge are in charge of the reform of state-owned enterprises in Ying Da University, Bai Bingyang is in charge of Advantage Manufacturing A in Bank of China Securities, and Gai Longjun and Liao Xinghao are in charge of innovative medical care in red soil.
Take the macro-timing strategy with leading performance of Wanjia as an example. As of the third quarter, most of the fund's heavy positions were energy stocks. Among them, China CNOOC and China Shenhua increased their holdings by a large margin compared with the end of June this year, and Lu 'an Huaneng, Shanxi Coking Coal and Shaanxi Coal also entered the ranks of heavyweights from the first quarter of this year.
It is worth noting that the above-mentioned funds basically locked their leading performance rankings in the middle of this year. Wanjia's macro timing strategy and Wanjia Xinli's performance in the first half of this year ranked first and second among flexible allocation funds, with yields of 52.63% and 46.80% respectively in the first half of this year. Not only that, the yield of Wanjia Select A in the first half of this year was 40.77%, ranking first among partial stock hybrid funds; In the first half of this year, the rate of return of state-owned enterprises in Ying Da was 17.83%, ranking first among ordinary equity funds.
According to Jian Peijun, general manager of Owl Fund Research Institute, this year's equity market is deeply influenced by macro, and the structural market has given fund managers who are good at traditional sectors more room to play. He believes that the net performance of several stock funds with top performance this year is generally not as outstanding as that in the first half of the year, which may be affected by the price adjustment of energy stocks. However, because these funds have formed a large performance leading edge in the first half of the year, this advantage was maintained in the second half of the year.
In addition, Jiao Jian believes that Jin Yuan Shun An Yuan Qi, as a stock fund with partial quantitative rebalancing strategy, has certain competitiveness in the performance competition with traditional active stock funds, and the trend that quantitative products can perform better deserves attention.
The "champion" of the public offering circle competed for hegemony that year.
In the history of public offering circle, the title competition of stock funds in some years can be described as brilliant.
The battle of public offering ranking in 2009 has made many old patrons remember it vividly. At that time, Wang Yawei of Huaxia Fund, Lu Wenjun of Yin Hua Fund and Wang Weidong of Xinhua Fund staged a fierce battle for the title. As of February 9th of that year, 65,438, Xinhua You Xuan, headed by Wang Weidong, followed closely Wang Yawei's selection of China market, and the difference between the net growth rates of the two funds was less than 2%. On the last day of 2009, Wang Yawei's Huaxia Market Selection launched its final offensive, and its single-day net value rose by 0.5 1%, successfully surpassing Yin Hua's core value optimization, and it has occupied the first place since 65438+February 24th.
In that year, China's large-cap selection won the top spot in the open-end fund rankings with a net growth rate of 1 16. 19%. Yin Hua's core value ranks second with a net growth rate of 1 16.08%, which is only 0.1/Wang Weidong Xinhua.
In addition, there are some classic reversal events. The post of China Post Fund, the public offering champion in 20 13 years, missed the public offering champion next year at the last moment. In the first three quarters of 20 14, the emerging growth of China Post's strategy, which he was responsible for, still maintained an excellent result of 17 percentage points higher than the second place. However, with the attack of blue-chip market in the fourth quarter of that year, ICBC Financial Real Estate managed by Wang came from behind, locking in the first place with a net growth rate of more than 50% in a single quarter, which made Ren, who preferred to hold GEM stocks, lose the championship.
The rapid changes in the industry can be clearly felt in the championship battles over the years. China, a brokerage firm, noted that as of the end of the third quarter, many equity funds with top performance this year were not large in scale, and many funds were below 2 billion yuan. Accordingly, the withdrawal of large-scale fund products is also very common. For example, a consumer fund with a scale of more than 50 billion yuan in South China withdrew more than 25% during the year, a pharmaceutical fund with a scale of more than 50 billion yuan in East China withdrew about 26% during the year, and a science and technology fund with a scale of more than 65.438 billion yuan in South China also withdrew more than 22% during the year. These funds belong to different tracks, but their returns are similar. Some insiders commented that this means that even experienced fund managers recognized by the market are not easy to grasp this year's equity market.
What will the sprint and outlook be like?
After 1 1 challenging months, what will fund managers do to make a final sprint for the coming last month?
Ye Yong, manager of Wanjia Twin Engine Fund, is relatively cautious. Based on the macro-cycle judgment, he will still focus on defense in the year-end allocation strategy. He will focus on upstream resource stocks represented by coal, large financial stocks and leading stocks in raw materials industries with low valuations such as chemicals and steel.
Wu Hao, director of the research department of CITIC Prudential Fund, believes that in the short term, many sectors are good, including vaccines, medical infrastructure, building materials, home, gold and copper. But in the medium and long term, overall development and security are still the main theme. In terms of security, he will focus on strengthening the chain, import substitution and military modernization, and seek opportunities in the direction of national defense, electronics, computers and related special equipment and materials; Looking for opportunities around developing policy financial instruments.
Looking forward to next year, Ye Yong believes that from the perspective of market style, it is necessary to fully consider the trend of commodity prices in 2023. At present, the upstream commodity inventory is generally at a low level, and the domestic macro cycle will bottom out in 2023. It is expected that commodity prices will fluctuate upward in 2023. He believes that this will have a greater impact on the stock market style, and resource stocks and value stocks will dominate. In the future, he focused on low-valued upstream resource stocks and low-valued blue chips, including finance, chemicals and building materials.
Wu Hao said that in the early stage, it was judged that the A-share market had assets upside down in similar difficulties. Recently, the domestic economy and global liquidity have obviously improved, and in the short term, the high probability may turn into a phased increase. He believes that at present, the market has not found a clear main line in the short term, and more is the promotion of trading margin, such as the media sector; And the expected reversal of the prosperity of low-level assets on the left, such as semiconductor design, brokerage and general machinery. , the overall rotation is faster. Looking forward to next year, he pays attention to mechanical equipment, food and beverage, non-ferrous metals, electronics and other fields.