Agricultural civilization-born in 9600 BC, agricultural civilization is a gift brought by global warming (every 30,000-year Milankovic cycle). Homo sapiens, the ancestor of modern people, appeared about 6.5438+0.5 million years ago, when the total number of human beings once dropped to about 20,000. Among them, the two river basins in southwest Asia and the Yellow River basin gave birth to the oldest and higher level agricultural civilization of mankind. The ancient bureaucrats, kings, priests and wise men were all based on the surplus labor of the vast agricultural population. In the Axial Age, the wise men in the East and the West care about the disadvantaged groups and ask the ultimate meaning of human life. Morris Law, Morris Law: "History is created by greedy, lazy and fearful human beings seeking ways to make life easier, safer and more effective, while human beings are unconscious. But agricultural civilization has its limitations, that is, land. 1798, Malthus published Demography Principles, pointing out that population growth will always exceed human food production capacity. This is the best summary of human civilization before the industrial revolution.
The author's definition of modern civilization-Civilization 3.0 is the great combination of science and technology and free market economy, that is, high technology and free market. This is unprecedented in human history, and it can reach the effect of 1 plus 1 greater than 4. If any country or region refuses to join the unified big market and participate in this kind of international competition, it will definitely fall behind. 3.0 The iron law of civilization is the largest market and will eventually become the only market. Human beings are born to pursue equality of results emotionally and equality of opportunities rationally. The essence of modernization is the combination of free market economy and modern science and technology. The society and country that enters this state is the modern society and country. The market has become more important than land.
Modernization of China-As long as China can move from civilization 2.5 to civilization 3.0, that is, stay in the global market dominated by the United States forever, it can continue to realize modernization in a positive cycle. However, it is a false proposition to study the modern 200 years and keep thinking about why China didn't realize modernization in those years. Because the probability of realization is quite small, there is no merchant economy under weak kingship, and there is no ring the atlantic economic cycle in Europe and America at that time. It is difficult to realize modernization with our system at that time. Neighboring Japan has been transformed into a modern country only through imitation and imitation. Economic development needs a stable government and a night watchman, and western democracy is not a prerequisite.
The United States-today's global market is still the global market under the American order. The market access granted by the United States actually determines the prosperity or poverty of any other country in the world. Bytedance recently sold 20% of its US business to Oracle Bone Inscriptions and Wal-Mart at a valuation of $65 billion, which has been a good result. Deng Xiaoping attaches great importance to Sino-US relations. Democracy in the United States is actually foreign hegemony. This is part of America's hard power. The development of China is absolutely inseparable from the global international market under the American order.
Value investment-the root of wealth creation is the continuous and progressive growth of GDP in the past 200 years of human civilization. If the cost is relatively fixed, a few percentage points of income growth will bring considerable profit growth. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. In the long run, there will be a huge difference between cash and stocks. Speculator is Mr. Market. Speculator has no influence on the fundamental profitability of the company, and speculation is zero. If you win, then someone must lose. The author once talked with the security guard cheerfully for more than an hour. There are about 65,438+10,000 listed companies in the world, but in fact, you need to study no more than 5 to 10 companies at any time, and then you pay attention to gold. "I have a physical aversion to speculation and I don't like it at all." Value investors are estimated to be only 5% in the US market. I think the fund manager's public offering will basically expect two or three years of profit, but the ten-year cycle is relatively short. Then, 5% may be underestimated. The market is set up for people who are keen on trading, not to see short-term profits. Investment also needs accurate information and complete information. If you follow Buffett Munger's route, you may spend 50 years working hard all your life, which will give you some really weighty insights. This requires continuous learning and lifelong learning. Authors can get inspiration by reading biographies of celebrities, physics and favorite history. His ideas come from all sides, but the most important thing is reading and talking. In the 20 years from 10, even the best company will experience entropy increase and entropy decrease. In the future, China and the United States will form a Pacific Rim economic center. As a profession, one of the most difficult parts of asset management is that there are too many specious theories and methods to make money. Value investors must gamble less and gamble more! The influence of final consumption and total capital formation on GDP growth has far exceeded net exports.
Compound interest-most people have no confidence in compound interest because it is not common in life. For example, what is most likely to increase compound interest is all kinds of experience and wisdom. However, most people's knowledge cannot be accumulated and tends to age. As long as the time of compound interest is long enough, this is the best and most important opportunity in your life. For the author, the experience of investment has really influenced him by the process of human entropy reduction. Especially the value of the right path.
Investment is actually a person's entropy reduction process. The second law of thermodynamics determines the world, and the countries around us and the top 500 companies in the world will eventually go to chaos and extinction in the process of entropy increase. As human beings, we must be encouraged to become a part of the world's entropy reduction. When I was young, I felt that days passed slowly. After 40, a year passed quickly. So we must live a good life in this life. Only by living your own life can you live a happy life. Not afraid of slow, slow is fast. "When I came into contact with the second law of thermodynamics, which is the law of entropy increase, I suddenly felt desperate and lonely about the material world and the universe." All sins are due to lack of knowledge. The meaning of life lies in gaining true knowledge.
Human civilization makes entropy reduction possible. I hope Vincent can be a part of micro entropy reduction, a glowing dust.