Funds are mainly stock funds, which means that investors of investment funds should pay close attention to the trend of the stock market. If the stock market still can't reverse the bear market trend and continues to fluctuate downward, then as a fund investor, it should also redeem the fund on rallies before and after the end of the market rebound, but there is a difference between the fund and the stock. Stocks want to sell more freely, but funds are more complicated and care more about long-term holding. Therefore, the rational investment mentality of fund investors is the same as that of stocks. If the market chooses which fund in the bear market, it becomes a secondary issue, because the fund is also losing money, so the timing of intervention and withdrawal has become something that fund investors must learn. If the size problem that caused this bear market is really solved by time, there will be hope 20 1 1 year after the peak of lifting the ban. Come out from the bottom. According to the statistics of the fluctuation probability of the stock market in previous Olympic Games, the probability of rising in the year of hosting the Olympic Games is 40%, and the probability of falling is 60%, so it is not appropriate to explain that the Olympic Games must rise. After the Olympic Games, the peak period of lifting the ban will come. The financial pressure will be more obvious. The probability of falling is much greater than the probability of rising. On Friday, after easily falling into the support area of 2800~2820, the market rose rapidly and barely recovered at the end (but still did not get rid of the pressure area). This trend has been staged many times in July. Every time the market is about to break, it is rumored that there are many benefits to be introduced immediately. It's been a month, and no one has come out yet (if there is, it should have come out long ago). If the operation of a stock market is supported by rumors, it is conceivable that in the future, if the rumors are not fulfilled next week, the short-term funds of the short-term betting policy may come out again, increasing the degree of market shock, without funds and confidence. Without policy support, I won't go into details about the rebound prospects brought by rumors. If the market outlook can stand firm in the short term, there is still hope. If it is unstable, it will continue to decline weakly. Pay attention to control the position not to be too high, and the market decline channel will be opened again. It is possible to test the point of 2500 again. Only after 2820 will the market have a chance to look up at the pressure area of 3050. Follow the trend. The size of the problem that caused the plunge directly led to the imbalance of funds, and the empty side suppressed many parties for a long time. In this long-term trend, funds are occupied by the empty side, and the market naturally fluctuates for a long time. This is the real reason for the continuous decline of stocks. After August, it is the peak of non-lifting the ban. The probability of falling is greater than the probability of rising. The latest fund statistics show that since July, the large-scale opening of positions advocated by stock reviews has once again become a joke. Despite the sharp slowdown in July, funds and insurance institutions still reduced their positions by nearly 25 billion. The main force of this wave of rebound has become hot money, but the characteristics of hot money are well known. Since it is a hot money sniper market, in the case that traditional large funds continue to increase their positions and lighten their positions, if the market outlook still has no more practical advantages, the rebound triggered by this wave of favorable rumors may become the last opportunity for institutions to lighten their positions. After all, the Olympic Games is only a theme, and it will not bring any substantial improvement to the capital of the market. Institutions will not miss this opportunity to increase and reduce positions, but the rebound height still needs to pay attention to the cooperation of good news on the policy side, and the specific situation will be analyzed in detail. With the coming of new IPO in the market, the market will continue to withstand the test of funds. Please pay attention to the short-term market support in the range of 2800~2820. If established, this wave of rebound will be driven by hot money under the support of the Olympic theme (some stocks). However, if this short-term support area is easily broken down and cannot be recovered, we should pay attention to the trend of hot money. If the hot money starts to retreat on a large scale, investors are advised to lighten their positions on rallies from a safety perspective. Traditional institutions. The current market feature of the broader market is that the market repeatedly relies on rumors that have never been fulfilled to save the market. First of all, the state introduced seven measures to rescue the market. In the absence of cash, the market broke and another national stabilization fund was allowed to enter the market to save the market. The initiator of the Second Balance and Stability Fund has rumored that there is no such thing ... If a stock market relies entirely on rumors to maintain volatility and slow down the downward trend, there is no real substantive measure. Then we should think more about the purpose of this rebound. What is the purpose of the organization? It often creates rumors to boost the stock market. The latest fund statistics came out. In this vigorous bargain-hunting operation, funds, insurance and QDF2 are all net outflows. Last week, when the market was optimistic about investors, the net outflow of these main funds was close to 25 billion, which was completely unexpected. This is another rumor. The real purpose of frequent positive rumors in the market is also very clear. The boat pulled. As everyone is looking forward to the results of Red July and the semi-annual report, the institution has maintained a net outflow. Although the market performance is good, there is still no sign of change from the intention of the institution. The long-term goal is still to reduce the pressure to avoid the size of positions and macro policies. In the case that the downward trend caused by the shortage of funds has been formed, investors should remain rational and not blindly optimistic. The stock market is complicated and simple. The complexity is that any factor may lead to changes in the stock market. The simple thing is that the long-term short-term trend of funds determines the long-term rise and fall of the market, but the stock market cannot just fall and not rise, and it will definitely rebound on the way down. But the scale of the rebound should be judged according to the good news of the policy. If the market is still supported by these non-material good news, then every rebound is an opportunity to lighten up. Only after the immaterial restrictions on the market size come out, can the market ease the pressure on funds and bring a wave of intermediate rebound or even reversal. As long as the core problem leading to the plunge is not solved, investors will regard it as a rebound and lighten their positions on rallies. Investors' weak confidence in continuous oversold makes bargain-hunting funds very cautious. Although bargain-hunting funds try to change this trend, the situation is not very optimistic. The current stock market is not as lacking in confidence and funds as the government said. Personally, I feel that both lack the shadow of size. This year is the lightest year, with only 3 trillion yuan released. However, the main capital of the market has been overwhelmed (before the main capital began to ship, the main capital of the market was only 3 trillion, but the scale was not enough to eliminate it). Although the government has given a fund to talk about politics, it seems that it has little practical effect. The action of the organization to continue to rebound and ship has not stopped, so it has to choose the strategy of playing while retreating to reduce losses. Even before the Olympic Games, the government made so-called benefits to prevent the stock market from falling further. However, as long as it does not substantially solve the scale problem of non-profit organizations, it is just a number of policies that are not painful. Then, in the current market where the long-short balance of funds has been broken, even under the trend of sideways operation or a slight rebound during the Olympic Games, investors should not be too optimistic, because they should be cautious, because the substantive problems have not been solved. Money will continue to be tight. When there is a rebound caused by policies, it is wise to reduce rallies. Don't believe that stock reviews don't consider the actual big market. Since the non-lifting funds in 2009 were nearly 7 trillion, the lifting funds in 20 10 were nearly 10 trillion, which has far exceeded the 3 trillion this year. Therefore, it is impossible to solve the pressure of funds before the core problem that led to this plunge is solved. Any marginal favorable policy will only bring about a rebound, not a reversal. Although the stock market is complex, it is actually very simple. The rule of the stock market is that if you sell more, you will buy down, and if you buy more, you will sell up. Most people understand this truth, but why are some people unwilling to face it when the funds have already been reflected? Don't believe that size also requires long-term investment. When the profit is as high as 400% or even as high as 1000% as soon as the listing is lifted, do you think the holders of the size will be safe or will continue to watch their profits shrink in a weak market (the size of the size is also an investor, and the profit first is also their idea, when long-term investors think that only retail investors with institutional education will do it) and the selling power in a long-term trend is overwhelming for some reason. Non-substantive policies bring about a rebound, not a reversal. Because the strongest support area of the market is 3300~3400 points, and the so-called policy iron bottom with the strongest stock evaluation and institutions is 2990 points, it has collapsed rapidly in the case of unbalanced funds. Therefore, the short-term rebound is an opportunity to reduce positions without the support of new favorable policies. Of course, if the marginal favorable policy brings bargain-hunting funds, it is of course best to bring about a relatively large rebound, which is a rare opportunity for retail investors. Strictly controlling positions is the only thing I want to say now. Every rebound and lightening positions are rigorous. Only when you have money in your hand can you have the initiative and you can usher in the real bottom. The bottom is the main force, not the retail investors. When the main force is forced to lighten up their positions under the pressure of non-size, what small and medium-sized investors can do is to follow the trend, rather than move against the trend. We should also control our positions when the institutions lighten up their positions. If you have to say what support level is below, look at around 2500. In fact, the strongest support level has fallen. Of course, if the government is willing to introduce substantive policies to solve the problem of non-size, then the resulting market will be a big market, not such a small fight. However, personally, it is not realistic. The government originally hoped that the market would digest nearly 20 trillion yuan. The government will be willing to pay the bill itself (some reflections on bear market operation). First, the gradual decline of shocks in a bear market is a long-term trend. Good news is only a condition for a rebound. However, when the stimulus of good news fades, the rebound will end (and the rebound height depends on the size of good news), and the downward trend temporarily changed because of good news will continue, and the stock market will return to its natural law. It is impossible for the stock market to turn around and reverse before the core problem (size) that led to the plunge is solved. In the continuous downward trend, it is good that 100 shares are in an upward trend, that is to say, the probability of buying falling stocks when the market falls is above 95%. As an investment, since we know that the probability of choosing stocks attacked by hot money is so low, it is better not to take this risk. Choosing to operate oversold rebound is a good investment strategy for investors who pay attention to the safety factor in this trend, because the rebound after oversold is certain, there is no stock market that only falls but does not rise, only the size of the rebound (according to whether there is good news and the size of good news to analyze the rebound height), and in this rebound process, it is generally dominated by general increase, and all the stocks that fall in this rebound process are at 10%. In other words, the probability that you buy a stock at random is far greater than the probability that you intervene in this stock during the decline. Although this probability cannot be used as the standard for copying stocks in stock trading, as an investor with high security requirements, trend investment is the safest investment strategy in a bear market. For investors who have a bad grasp of stocks, if they want to get involved in the stock market in a bear market, it is safer to choose this strategy. But remember, only oversold can copy short-term, and general downturns generally choose to wait and see. The red plate in the middle may be a human trap. One day it bounced back, and the next day it covered all the hunters. Therefore, if you can't grasp where the bottom is in a bear market, you'd better make a trend to reduce risks (personal opinions are carefully adopted). Now, you should follow the trend, don't be a dead cow, don't be a dead bear, just be a prick. Before the market has no choice of direction, strictly controlling your position will minimize your risk. The above is purely a personal opinion, please adopt it carefully.