Let me give you a definition (cliche)

Bubble economy: the excessive growth of virtual capital and the continuous expansion of related transactions are increasingly divorced from the growth of physical capital and industrial sectors, the prices of financial securities and real estate are soaring, and speculative transactions are extremely active. Bubble economy lies in financial speculation, which leads to false prosperity of social economy, and finally the bubble will burst, leading to social shock and even economic collapse. (Encyclopedia)

Generally speaking, in the process of economic development, in some important sectors, especially finance and real estate, the economic development in some areas is overheated and too fast because of speculators' speculation, showing a scene of "prosperity", but this "prosperity" lacks material foundation, just like a typical castle in the air, which looks beautiful above, but there is no solid foundation below. Speculators often only let the public see the thriving pavilions, but cover up the false foundation, making people mistakenly think that the economy in this field is "real prosperity" and follow the trend, but because there is no solid foundation, once the number of speculators and their followers exceeds the market capacity, the market demand is far less than the supply, and the result is often that the bubble bursts.

The most typical event is the bursting of Japan's real estate bubble economy in the last century. At that time, real estate rose in Japan. At first, a large number of houses were built in Japan because of urban development. At this time, a group of speculators seized the opportunity, on the one hand, they used the funds on hand and preferential policies to hoard houses, on the other hand, they were hyped by hiring pushers, resulting in a situation that houses would increase in price, and prices would increase significantly. If they don't buy now, they will be unable to afford them in the future.

In fact, at that time, the supply and demand of Japanese houses were in short supply only at the initial stage of development, which was exploited by speculators for hoarding and speculation. At that time, Japanese nationals with unknown reasons were short of housing supply and house prices were rising, so they could not help believing the speculators' comments, which led to the upsurge of people snapping up houses. As a result of hoarding and snapping up, it was difficult to buy houses in the market and house prices continued to rise.

But in fact, the supply of housing can't be always insufficient, and the demand for housing won't increase indefinitely. Housing speculation overdraws the housing demand and purchasing power of Japanese citizens. Those who can afford it buy houses prematurely, which also leads to rising house prices. Those who can't afford it can't afford it, which in turn leads to social unrest.

Of course, this kind of social problem and social benefit will not be considered by speculators (they will not speculate if they consider it). Speculators still advocate that theory, but the supply and demand of houses are imaginary, and the purchasing power is real. When all those who can afford to buy houses and those who want to follow suit borrow money to buy houses, the number of people who can buy houses will gradually decrease, which is no longer enough to support the inflated housing prices, while more people borrow money to buy houses. However, as mentioned above, because the purchasing power of houses has been overdrawn by speculators, when these loan buyers are forced to sell their houses, no one can buy them-speculators naturally understand the original property bubble. At this time, they will not pay for houses, and the market purchasing power has long been overdrawn. At this time, who will buy houses? However, the pressure of borrowing is getting bigger and bigger, but the houses can't be turned into cash, so some people who are in a hurry start to sell houses at reduced prices-they can't hold on any longer. When the price cut is opened, it will cause more panic among other homeowners-especially those who still have loans. When the house price starts to fall, some people who are not in a hurry to borrow and buy houses also start to worry, and creditors start to force debts, for fear that the depreciation of houses will make it difficult for them to recover their costs. However, debtors are eager to sell their houses and cash out under double pressure. However, after a large number of houses are pushed down to the market, the supply exceeds the demand, and the more so, the remaining purchasing power begins to wait and see, so the falsely pushed house prices begin to return to rationality-at this time, it depends on how high the bubble of inflated house prices is, and the bigger the bubble is, the more serious the problem will be when the bubble bursts.

and the emergence of the bubble economy, first of all, to produce an economic bubble, the two are complementary.

Conditions for the formation of an economic bubble:

1. Speculators have sufficient funds as support and a market environment for speculation

2. The formation and development of a bubble economy lacks a restraint mechanism

, that is, a relatively relaxed market environment, relatively superior economic development policies, sufficient funds, and lack of necessary regulatory constraints. The most important thing is that this field can be speculated. It is the five conditions that lead to the bubble (personal summary)

Generally speaking, when a certain market field is about to be developed, national and local support policies are introduced, the market competition pressure is less, there is no constraint, and speculators not only have opportunities but also have abundant funds, which will lead to economic bubbles.

As far as Moonstone is concerned, the following conditions are needed to trigger a bubble economy:

1. The speculative field is an important field.

In recent years, due to the problem of speculators, the prices of agricultural and sideline products such as mung beans and garlic have soared, but no one said that there was a bubble economy in the field of agricultural and sideline products. Why? Quite simply, mung beans and garlic are just an auxiliary material in people's diet. You can eat them if you have them, but you can't eat them if they are expensive. Moreover, these things can't be preserved for a long time. The state has strict policies and regulations on basic food crops such as rice and wheat, and it is forbidden for individuals and collectives to hoard and speculate. However, there are no restrictions on agricultural and sideline products, because these are only things that improve people's living standards and have nothing to do with the basis of survival. Before, there were a few so-called scholars and experts who advocated the absurd remarks that "mung beans cure all diseases" everywhere on TV stations, which undoubtedly misled consumers, and these have been investigated and dealt with.

but why did a bubble economy occur in Japan's real estate sector? Quite simply, food, clothing, housing and transportation are the basics of human survival. Houses are used for living. Without houses, there is no place to live. Without places to live, there is no guarantee for a safe life and even a survival problem. Speculators can speculate on housing prices, because houses are needed by everyone, mung beans and garlic can be eaten if they are expensive, but they can't live if they are expensive.

2. The speculative items are virtual and cannot be directly touched.

the reason why the economic bubble appears in the financial field is that financial products are often just digital changes, and then they are linked to real life through the state machine, so people can't see them intuitively.

It is true that people can eat pork when they see pigs. When someone says that the pork industry is prosperous and will make a fortune, people will see it and judge it.

But finance is different. Its products are virtual, which is hard for people to see and see intuitively. Only a few people who know the inside story can touch it accurately.

so, this gives speculators room.

Typical Southeast Asian financial turmoil

At that time, some speculators in developed countries in Europe and America set their sights on Asia after sweeping the European financial industry. The speculators prepared a large amount of money as the backing, first borrowed a lot from banks, and took a large amount of money from these Southeast Asian countries, and speculated in the financial market to raise the market value of the country's currency. For example, a certain currency, originally 1 yuan could be exchanged for 1 US dollar, and now financial promoters have made it 8: through speculation. Because their lending was at 1:1, and now it is 8:1, although there is no change in reality, the value of the money they borrowed has increased invisibly. At a certain time, they began to sell the country's currency and exchange it for dollars, pounds and other currencies, which led to a sharp increase in the supply of the country's money market, and the original appreciation scene suddenly turned into a plunge. As a pusher, they can naturally sell all the money at a high level of 8:1. Then the currency depreciates to 9:1,1:1, 11:1 or even more. When they reach their psychological price, they use the US dollars at hand to repay the loan. Because the loan is 1:1, the loan repayment has reached 12:1, and when they exchange it, it is 8:1. After deducting the interest difference, that is to say, they borrow 1 yuan and then pay 1 yuan. Then, when it reaches a high level of .125, it will be converted into other currencies, and the currency will be devalued. At this time, they will first change the value of 1 yuan from 1 to 1.25, then change it to 1.25, and then let the 1 yuan depreciate to about .87, and then deduct the interest. In this way, they will get 1.25 and pay less than 1, and the difference is the profit they earned.

At the cost, the economic turmoil and financial instability in these countries, the money on hand of ordinary people has experienced ups and downs, and the wealth has shrunk, which has led to social problems.

Of course, the bubble economy is not inevitable. It is actually a deformed economy.

To prevent the bubble economy, we should know the three major factors that form the bubble economy.

1. Speculators. 2, boost. 3, the field.

Strict monitoring and control in any field can successfully prevent and eliminate the bubble economy.

let's talk about the financial turmoil in southeast Asia. At that time, this storm swept through Southeast Asia, including Hong Kong, but only Hong Kong had the least impact and Thailand recovered the fastest.

First of all, the reason why Hong Kong escaped the financial turmoil is due to the support of the mainland. At that time, speculators invaded Hong Kong's financial market on a large scale. As speculation in foreign exchange was prohibited in mainland China (since around 195, the mainland has cracked down on financial speculation in various places and arrested a large number of financial speculators in Shanghai). As a result, the mainland banned speculation in this field in policy and put an end to the bubble of currency speculation from the source. Hong Kong has a loose policy, but with the support of the mainland, when speculators hoard Hong Kong dollars and start to sell them, the mainland eats a lot of Hong Kong dollars. In this way, Hong Kong's foreign exchange reserves are sufficient, and the Hong Kong dollar is pushed up. However, when they want to devalue it greatly, they encounter strong obstacles. As speculators, it is almost impossible to fight against a huge state machine. Therefore, the speculators have sold out Hong Kong dollars, but the mainland dollar is still very rich, and the pressure of repaying loans is forcing them.

Thailand's fastest recovery is due to Supachai's new financial policy. At that time, the Thai baht was almost collapsed by speculators in the financial turmoil. At that time, many Southeast Asian countries accepted the proposal of the International Monetary Fund, only Supachai. After analysis, he thought that this proposal was not suitable for Thailand's financial and economic recovery, so he rejected it, and instead used his own set of policies suitable for Thailand to strengthen supervision of the financial industry, increase state intervention and stabilize the exchange rate. This policy belongs to remedial measures, that is, plugging the loopholes at the source after problems occurred.

These attacks are aimed at speculators, who are the source of bubbles, but they are not enough to generate bubbles, and then there is a boost.

there are two kinds of boosting force: conscious boosting and unconscious boosting.

The so-called conscious means to help speculators to boost. For example, in some stock black houses, some so-called experts often preach in major media that a certain stock will go up and have good news, so as to lure investors into making big money for bookmakers. Also known as "trust".

The other is the unconscious boost, which is still above. When some so-called experts advocate it, some ignorant investors believe the so-called "authoritative news" of the experts, not only buy the stock themselves, but also publicize it to their relatives and friends, which is a hype. Because of mutual understanding and trust, their relatives and friends are convinced to join this team, like rats dragging children out in a long line.

For the former, the policy is generally severely cracked down. A considerable number of so-called stock evaluation experts and fund managers have been sued or even jailed for false propaganda.

for the latter, they are usually brought back to rationality through policy propaganda.

and the third point is the speculative field.

As Moonstone said earlier, what can constitute a bubble economy must be an important field. No matter how much mung bean and garlic are hyped, it is impossible to form an economic bubble, because they are dispensable, but finance and real estate are related to the economic foundation and people's livelihood, and such fields are also the most prone to bubbles.

generally speaking, corresponding policies are needed to control its bubble.

1, ban, ban, strike hard.

China's mainland is a country where speculation in the financial sector is strictly prohibited, and once a few economic crimes were executed. Speculation in some fields can be avoided through strict legal means-after all, life is more important than money.

2, control

For example, in the real estate industry, after the real estate financial crisis, the United States began to gradually adjust its housing policy. For example, the original policy of "everyone has a house" began to adjust, and the unrealistic slogan policy could only encourage the formation of a bubble.

The above is the moonstone, which has written a long personal analysis. .............