After defining the general principles of fund asset allocation, how should we choose fund investment varieties among various funds?
Principle of selecting bases: give up looking at rankings
In 2008, the ranking of fund performance was released. Although the absolute return is not excellent, the relative ranking can still attract investors' attention. The principle we have always emphasized is that we should not invest in the future solely based on history, but choose funds based on the judgment of the future. The investment environment of the stock market in 2009 may be different from that in 2008, so the performance ranking in 2008 is not enough.
What is important here is to analyze the reasons behind the fund performance, specifically analyze the investment style and team ability of the fund, and judge which funds are likely to maintain good performance; Or according to the performance in 2008, we can judge which funds have promotion potential.
For long-term configuration varieties, the most important selection criterion is the sustainability of the fund's long-term performance in the future, which needs to be based on the judgment of the investment competitiveness of the fund company.
Partial stock funds: stock-picking and flexible-style funds are preferred.
Small and medium-sized partial stock funds with strong stock selection ability and flexible operation style can be the best choice for allocating partial stock funds in the fund portfolio in 2009. In the strategic and structural market of the stock market in 2009, foundations with strong stock selection ability have unique advantages and even better income opportunities. According to these standards, we prefer five funds that can be allocated throughout the year (table 1).
As the basic allocation in the fund portfolio, investors can continue to focus on holding funds with stable operation style and relatively balanced profitability and risk control capabilities, such as Huaxia, Nanfang, Yifangda and Shangtou Morgan. These funds are generally large in scale, so they have some limitations in investment flexibility, but their overall investment ability is also quite excellent.
Table1:Recommendation of Partial Stock Funds in 2009
Fund Name Fund Type Suitable for Investors Fund Style Recommended Reasons
Xingye's global vision: active and steady stock investors are steady, with long-term performance sustainability in balanced allocation, strong stock selection ability, and especially strong ability to control investment risks.
Guohai Franklin flexible market capitalization active and steady investors have strong moderate stock selection ability and forward-looking judgment on the changes of industries and individual stocks. In Africa
Warburg's strategic growth stock type active and steady investors are moderately active and flexible in investment style. The flexible multi-strategy style of fund has been fully proved in bull market and bear market, and the fund team and fund manager have strong investment ability.
Bank of Communications Steady Partial Stock Mixed Active Steady Investors Steady fund managers have a steady style and a good grasp of macro trends.
Huitianfu's advantages and partial stocks are mixed. Active and steady investors are steady, with strong stock selection ability, balanced investment style and strong team ability, and their performance in 2009 is expected to improve.
New partial stock fund: a safe choice
At this stage, the new fund is a relatively safe choice for investors who want to invest in partial stock funds but are worried about investment risks. Because the first half of 2009 may be turbulent and risky. Choosing a new fund can not only avoid the uncertain risks of the stock market in the next six months, but also flexibly grasp the investment opportunities.
At the end of the year, the number of new funds issued is small, among which three funds deserve investors' attention.
Table 2: Recommendation of new partial stock funds at this stage
Fund Name Fund Type Suitable for Investors Fund Style Recommended Reasons
Morgan Stanley's small and medium-sized stocks are used for portfolio style allocation-small and medium-sized funds are scarce varieties, and their high growth and high volatility make them have outstanding requirements for investment fund managers in terms of investment direction selection and stock selection ability. Morgan Stanley's strong stock investment ability makes the performance of small and medium-sized funds worth looking forward to.
Huitianfu value selects stable and active stock investors-Huitianfu investment team is excellent, good at stock selection, and there will be more room for development in 2009. Huitianfu's concept of value choice is more balanced. The ability to carefully open positions in market fluctuations has been proved.
Bank of Communications Schroeder is a steady and conservative investor-Bank of Communications Schroeder Fund has shown superb investment ability in a weak market, and is suitable for investment products such as capital preservation funds, which give priority to safety and give consideration to income.
Various trading funds
If there are obvious stages in the stock market in 2009, such as the overall rebound after the decline, then the variety of trading funds is most suitable for active investors operating in the band. This mainly refers to ETF and tradable index fund LOF. Such fund varieties include SSE 50ETF, SME ETF, dividend ETF, Harvest CSI 300LOF, etc. The pattern that the stock market fell and rebounded in 2008 may still reappear in 2009.
Table 3: Recommended varieties of trading funds
Fund Name Fund Type Suitable for Investors Fund Style Recommended Reasons
Harvest CSI 300 LOF is an active investor trading fund with good market representation, which can be used to track market trends.
Small and medium-sized board ETF ETF active investors-small and medium-sized board ETF can invest flexibly in the early stage of rebound.
QDII fund: a small amount of strategic allocation
The performance of QDII fund has been criticized since its establishment. In addition to the fund's own investment strategy mistakes, the extremely unfavorable market environment is the main reason. In 2009, under the overall trend of global market recovery from the downturn, QDII funds may recover from the downturn, and the exchange rate risk is also decreasing. Of course, the overall investment of QDII funds is based on the bottom of the major markets they invest in. Based on this judgment, QDII funds that mainly invest in Hong Kong stocks and QDII funds that are flexibly deployed around the world may have certain investment opportunities.
Of course, due to the high liquidity cost and transaction cost of QDII fund investment, it is still a relatively high-risk investment variety, and it is not recommended to reconfigure QDII funds. For active investors, a small amount of strategy can be configured.
Table 4: QDII Fund Variety Recommendation
Fund Name Fund Type Suitable for Investors Fund Style Recommended Reasons
Harvest QDII active investors mainly invest in Hong Kong stocks. Under the same conditions, if A shares have investment opportunities, Hong Kong stocks may have better recovery investment opportunities.
The global allocation of QDII active investors in South China adheres to the idea of global allocation and has long-term allocation value.
Partial debt fund: bonds, currencies and capital preservation funds are optional.
Among the partial debt funds, bond funds, money funds and capital preservation funds can be allocated according to their different investment characteristics to meet different investment purposes.
Monetary fund has high liquidity, low rate and small differentiation, but the expected rate of return is low; The liquidity and rate of bond funds are good, but the funds are highly differentiated and need to be carefully selected; Capital preservation fund is suitable for investors who tend to be conservative for a long time. It can increase income on the premise of ensuring the principal, but its disadvantages are long investment cycle and high rate.
Table 5: Recommended varieties of partial debt funds
Fund Name Fund Type Suitable for Investors Fund Style Recommended Reasons
Huaxia Fund, a bond-type conservative investor, has strong investment ability and the overall investment and research strength of the company is among the best.
Cathay Pacific bond bond-type conservative investor-excellent bond investment ability and clear bond market investment strategy.
Southern Hengyuan capital preservation type, stable and conservative investors-there are few funds in the market that can purchase capital preservation, and their long-term performance is promising.
Long-term allocation based on the core competitiveness of fund companies
On the whole, the keynote of fund investment in 2009 is to seize opportunities moderately on the basis of prudence; Therefore, the purpose of the whole fund portfolio investment is not for income. Under this premise, portfolio investment needs to pay more attention to the long-term value-added prospects, rather than achieving higher returns in a short time.
In order to increase value for a long time, it is particularly important to pay attention to the investment competitiveness of fund companies. Those fund companies with excellent investment teams, reasonable investment systems and processes, and excellent risk management may bring long-term superior returns to investors even if their funds have short-term performance fluctuations.
How to select bases in 2009?
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