the middle route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project failed

Author: Ma Kean

First, the damn flow

The South-to-North Water Transfer Project is scheduled to be flooded after the flood season in 214. "Water supply after flood season" was later changed to "water supply soon". From summer to now, the acceptance of the whole project was announced at the end of September, and the water supply conditions were met. And then nothing more. It was not until Xinhua News Agency reported that at 14: 32 on December 12, the gate at the head of the canal was opened, which was regarded as the official water supply. In fact, before the formal water supply, the channel was already filled with water, which is called water filling, not water supply. What is the difference between filling water and passing water? Water filling means that after water is poured in, the gates at all levels are closed and the water cannot flow. Water flowing is water flowing. So the difference lies in the flow of water. Let's see if the water is flowing and how fast it is flowing after the gate at the head of the canal is opened. From various reports, I come to the conclusion that the water flow is very slow, which proves that the project has completely failed.

In the video, rubber duck was seen floating in the main canal at 3: 2, 5: 4 and 7: 25 respectively. At 3: 2, rubber duck is more than 2 meters away from the bridge, and at 7: 25, rubber duck floats under the bridge. The time interval is 245 seconds, and the drift distance is estimated to be 25 meters. It is calculated that the average water flow speed is .1 meter per second, which is 1 centimeters per second.

let's estimate the water flow at a water speed of .1m per second. The cross section of the channel is trapezoidal, the bottom of the channel is 25m wide, and the slope is 1: 2, that is, for every meter of height, the width is increased by 2m on each side and 4m on both sides. The channel is 8 meters deep when it is filled with water, and there is still a little depth that is not completely filled, which is 7 meters deep. Then the water section of the channel is 25 meters wide at the bottom and 39 meters wide at the top. The trapezoidal section is the average of the upper bottom and the lower bottom multiplied by the height, 32X7=224 square meters. Multiplied by the current velocity of .1 meter per second. The water transmission capacity is 22.4 cubic meters per second. It is far from the design target of 35 cubic meters per second! Other media reported that the water flow was 1 cubic meters per second. However, CCTV opened its eyes and lied, using a prepared manuscript, saying that the water flow per second is 35 cubic meters, and the water speed is more than one meter per second. This is self-deception. When people all over the country see rubber duck, they know exactly what the real water speed is. Even primary school students can't fool CCTV's back manuscripts.

after five days of water supply, CCTV released another video, revealing that 21 million cubic meters of water were discharged in five days. Based on this calculation, the average water discharge is 48 cubic meters per second, which shows that my estimation is very accurate. Calculated by 21 million cubic meters of water, the water only flows out of 77 kilometers. However, CCTV fished up rubber duck, transported the car to Jiaozuo and threw it into the channel, claiming that the water had already flowed to Jiaozuo. Joke! Also, on the first day, it was reported that the water discharge was 1 cubic meters per second. If you believe this figure, 8.64 million cubic meters of water will be released on the first day, and 21 million will be released in the next four days, with an average of only 35 cubic meters per second. It can be seen that the downstream water flow is not smooth, so it is forced to reduce the discharge of the head sluice to 35 cubic meters per second.

second, the damn design: sand settling and freezing are not considered

Let's watch the video carefully again. From 1: 4, the camera turns to the water at the gate. We can see that the opened gate did stir up some waves, but the water did not rush down, but just circled in the same place, causing the waves to wander around and turn around in the same place, instead of drifting forward obviously. This shows that the gate only opened a crack in the deep water and was not fully opened. A fully opened gate will make the water pour down, which is unstoppable. When you open a crack in the deep water, you can only see some eddies on the water surface. It should be noted that the water level in the dam at the head of the canal is 16 meters, and the water in the outer channel is less than 147 meters. The water drop of 13 meters is enough to make the water rush out of the gate at a speed of 16 meters per second. Not to mention the design flow of 35 per second, the gate is fully opened, and the water discharge of 28 cubic meters per second can be achieved. We have seen the momentum of Ma Benteng when the sluice gate of the dam opens.

However, the South-to-North Water Diversion Channel is a long and slender waterway with a length of 1, kilometers. As a result of poor water flow in the downstream and fierce water discharge in the upstream, it is impossible to make the downstream water flow faster, but it is only possible to make the upstream water overflow the channel. Therefore, the opening of the canal head is not as big as you want, but only a little, depending on whether the downstream water flow is smooth or not. If the downstream water flow is smooth and the water level drops, the gate can be opened a little wider. Otherwise, the upstream water is almost full, and the gate has to be closed a little faster to prevent the water from overflowing. We can see that although the gate at the head of the canal is only slightly opened, the water level is already very full, indicating that the downstream water flow is not smooth, and the water flow is only a little, so the gate cannot be opened any more. This not only proves that the real water flow of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project is far from the design index, but also proves that the commander and controller of the project fully understand this fact and will only manipulate the gate at the head of the canal to open only a small crack, not a bigger one. I think all over the world have reported that rubber duck is used to estimate the water speed, but no media can give a specific figure, saying what the estimated water speed is. This is also according to the clear instructions of the superior, so as not to report the specific water speed, so as not to arouse doubts from the people of the whole country. It may not be that all the reporters forgot to calculate the water speed.

Why is the water speed and water delivery far below the design index

According to the design of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, the annual average water delivery should reach 9.5 billion cubic meters. 365 days a year, 24 hours a day, 36 seconds an hour, the average flow should reach 3 cubic meters per second. The engineering design index is designed flow of 35 cubic meters per second and increased flow of 43 cubic meters per second. Now, according to the drifting speed in rubber duck, the water speed is only 1 cm per second, and the flow rate is only 2 cubic meters per second. Why is it so much worse than the design index?

in water conveyance project, the water velocity is very important, not only because the water flow is equal to the cross-sectional area of water multiplied by the water velocity, but also directly proportional to the water velocity. And because the water speed is directly related to the two hazards of water conveyance project, one is sediment deposition, and the other is icing in winter. There is sediment in the water, and when the water flows slowly, the sediment will be deposited, blocking the passage, making the water flow slower, and finally the project will be destroyed because of the silt.

Secondly, water flows from Danjiangkou, Hubei Province, which is relatively warm, to the cold north, and it will freeze in winter. When water freezes, the surface usually freezes first, forming a closed space, and then the water below freezes in the closed space, and the frozen volume of water will expand by 1%, which will damage the channels, culverts and aqueducts, with great destructive power. The designers of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project originally assumed that the water in Danjiangkou carries residual temperature. If the water volume is large enough and the water speed is fast enough, the water will flow through the South-to-North Water Diversion Project before it can be completely cooled and frozen. When it comes to Beijing, the water will go through the underground pipeline, and the underground temperature will be relatively warm. Then the problem of icing is not big. However, if the original design of water speed is 2 meters per second, the actual speed is only a dozen centimeters per second, and the water flow is ten times slower, there will be enough time to cool and freeze, which is a big problem!

Third, the amateur calculation actually debunks the trick

There is an estimation formula called Manning formula: Fourth, nothing, just 5 billion

Northern provinces and cities are seriously short of water, and they are eagerly waiting for the 9.5 billion tons of water every year for the South-to-North Water Transfer Project. These days, I read reports about how to use the abacus beads with 9.5 billion tons of water to crack. Some even say that groundwater can be replenished, some say that water parks can be built, and urban greening can be done. Are dreaming of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project. But what if there is no 9.5 billion tons of water every year? What if it's only 5 million tons?

if there is not so much water, all provinces and cities will fight for the envy of water. Originally planned, Henan allocated 3.8 billion tons, Hebei 3.5 billion tons, Tianjin 1 billion tons and Beijing 1.2 billion tons. If there were no 9.5 billion tons, would Henan cut off all the water for its own use, or would it lose it to Beijing and not get a drop of water? What about Hebei and Tianjin? This water is not divided enough, so how to distribute it is a big problem. The South-to-North Water Diversion Project is guaranteed to be 9.5 billion tons per year, and only 5 million tons to 6 million tons in the end. All kinds of criticisms will be heard if you can't drink water. What should I do? Who is in charge?

what is more terrible than no water is the problem of money. Engineering construction plus later maintenance and operation will cost 5 billion yuan. This money is not taken out by the central government. They can't afford that much money. The central government has provided less than 4 billion yuan. The rest are from bank loans and construction funds. The loan is to be repaid, and the fund is raised by all water users, and it is also to be repaid by the benefits of water use. In other words, 9% of the project cost is due to a large amount of water debt. In the end, the user will repay this huge debt, and whoever uses more will pay more, which will be converted into water price. The problem is that there is not so much water, how can it be converted into water price? The actual water transfer is only a few hundred million tons, not 9.5 billion tons. It costs 5 billion yuan to repay the principal and interest every year, and it costs 1 yuan to convert it into 5 million tons of water. Who can afford it? Who wants to use it? Simply don't even want this water, the project is idle. But the debt still needs to be paid. The water is not used, but the water fee for the South-to-North Water Transfer Project has to be paid as usual. Be full of gas!

this involves the problem of bad debts of banks. Banks provide large loans to the South-to-North Water Transfer Project because of the state guarantee. These loans are to be repaid from the benefit of water use. If the project can't produce water transfer benefits and the water fee can't be collected, who will repay the loan? Bank loans come from ordinary depositors. These depositors' money has been lent out and can't be recovered. So who will repay the losses of these depositors who are in the dark? The failure of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project will produce countless such terrible bad accounts. This is much more terrible than no water.

the south-to-north water transfer project has been flooded. How much water can flow to the four northern provinces and cities, how to divide this water, and how to repay this debt. This lid can't be covered. Because every household has to use water. It's time for the authorities to tell the people the real figures. First of all, everyone should ask, where is rubber duck? What is the current speed and flow rate that rubber duck told us?