Figure 42 Annual price index of mineral products
(Note: The base period is the previous year)
Figure 43 Crude oil price trend at home and abroad
Source: National Research Network.
(1) Energy prices fluctuated and rose.
Crude oil crude oil prices at home and abroad show an "N" shape, and domestic oil prices are higher than those in the United States 16.4%. The average spot price of crude oil in Daqing Oilfield was 1 10.3 USD/barrel, up 40.6% year-on-year, from 1.65438 USD/barrel in April to 1 USD/barrel in October. In the same period, the spot price of new york crude oil in the United States averaged US$ 94.8/barrel, up by 19.3% year-on-year, from US$ 89.3/barrel in June to US$ 107.7/barrel in April, and then fell to 65,438+/kloc-0. It is worth noting that from 20 1 1 to 1, the crude oil price in Daqing changed the pattern that was basically consistent with that in new york in the past, and began to be higher than that in new york, with the fluctuation range from 7% of 1 to 1 3%.
20 1 1 new york crude oil spot price changes can be divided into three stages. The first stage of increase: from the beginning of the year to the end of April, it broke through three steps: 90 USD/barrel,/kloc-0 USD/barrel and/kloc-0 USD/barrel, and it was1/kloc-0 USD/barrel on April 29th. The second stage callback: from the beginning of May to June 4th 10. Due to the unfavorable economic data in Europe and America, especially the European debt crisis, investors' concerns about the global economic recession have intensified, and energy institutions have successively lowered their expectations for the growth of global oil demand this year and next, which has led to heavy pressure on the international crude oil market and the international oil price has plummeted again and again; From 1 13.73 USD/barrel to 1 10 USD/barrel, 100 USD/barrel, 90 USD/barrel, and 80 USD/barrel, it fell on June 4 10. The third stage of rebound: after 10, geopolitical pressure rose, economic data in Europe and America improved, unemployment rate in the United States dropped sharply, Italian bond auction was successful, especially the six major central banks in the world jointly released liquidity to support the financial system, and so on. The price of crude oil rose continuously from $75.3/barrel to $80/barrel and $90/barrel, once exceeding 100 $/barrel.
Box 8 The influencing factors of crude oil price are becoming more and more complicated.
With the deepening of globalization, there are more and more factors affecting crude oil prices, and the unpredictability and volatility of international crude oil prices are also increasing. Especially since 20 1 1, the international crude oil price has fluctuated due to many factors. The factors pushing up the price of crude oil: First, geopolitics in the Middle East continues to deteriorate. The impact of the Egyptian events on the world economy is worrying, such as the Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia, the massive protests in Libya, Bahrain, Yemen and Algeria, and the political turmoil in Algeria. This political crisis, which lasted for nearly half a year, has not been alleviated by the intervention of developed countries such as Europe and the United States, but has intensified. As a result, oil exports in the Middle East dropped sharply, far from the pre-war level, and crude oil prices kept rising.
Second, the demand for crude oil in China, India and other developing countries has increased. 20 1 1 On April 2, 2008, the International Energy Agency predicted that the global oil demand would increase by11.8% in 2012, which is equivalent to an increase of150,000 barrels per day respectively. It is estimated that the oil demand in China will increase by 6.3% in 20 1 1 year and 5.9% in 20 12, reaching10.33 million barrels per day. On the same day, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries predicted that in 2065.438+065.438+0, the global average daily crude oil demand will increase by 6.5438+0.4 million barrels, and the output of non-OPEC countries will increase by 600,000 barrels in 2065.438+0.
Third, the continued loose monetary policy in the United States has led to the continued weakening of the US dollar. Affected by the interest rate hike in the euro zone, the downgrade of the long-term sovereign credit rating of the US dollar by Standard & Poor's and the continuous loose monetary policy in the United States, the US dollar index fell to its lowest level since August 2008, and the euro rose to its highest level against the US dollar since June 65438+February 2009. 2011The average value of the US dollar index in April was 74.7 1, which was 2.06% lower than that in March. On April 5, 201/kloc-0, Bank of China announced that it would raise the benchmark interest rate of RMB deposits and loans of financial institutions by 0.25% from April 6. On April 27th, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep the current interest rate of the Federal Reserve Fund unchanged at 0 ~ 0.25%, and the second round of quantitative easing policy would end on June 30th, 201/year as scheduled. At the same time, the Fed will reinvest the expired mortgage-backed bonds as planned. The Federal Reserve said that it would keep the easing policy and low interest rates unchanged.
Suppress price factors: first, the economic slowdown in developed countries. The US economic data is poor, and the economic recovery is slower than expected; The European debt crisis has intensified, and the economic data of the euro zone is weaker than expected; Affected by the earthquake, Japan's economic recession is serious.
Second, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced the release of 60 million barrels of strategic crude oil reserves to curb oil prices. 20 1 1 On June 23rd, 2008, 28 member countries of the International Energy Agency agreed to take joint action to put a total of 60 million barrels of oil into the market in the next 30 days to stabilize the market supply, and put about 2 million barrels into the market every day on average to make up for the supply gap caused by the shutdown of Libyan crude oil and protect the fragile recovery momentum of the world economy. Us energy information administration (EIA) also issued a statement saying that the United States, as a member of the International Energy Agency, will put 30 million barrels of strategic oil reserves into the market this time to stabilize the market supply, as part of the release of 60 million barrels of crude oil by the International Energy Agency. Europe will provide 30% of the oil for the International Energy Agency's plan to release 60 million barrels of crude oil, and the rest will be provided by the Pacific members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Affected by this, international crude oil prices fell. On June 28th, the price of new york crude oil fell to 92.9 USD/barrel, the lowest price since February 22nd.
Domestic high-quality coal prices first rose and then fell. The average price of domestic high-quality coal was 79 1.6 yuan/ton, up 9.5% year-on-year, from 757 yuan/ton in 65438+1month to 827. 1 ton in 65438+/month, and then fell back to 65433 yuan/ton. In the first quarter, coal prices were generally stable, with a slight decline. In late March, the Daqin Railway began to be overhauled, which affected coal transportation to some extent. In addition, the price of coal in Qinhuangdao Port was higher than that in Big bounce, and rose linearly in the later period. 1October 26th, 65438, the price of high-quality coal reached about 850 yuan/ton, the highest price in the year. During the period of 65438+February, due to the temporary intervention policy of the state and the high coal inventory in Qinhuangdao, the high-quality coal price dropped to about 800 yuan/ton.
(2) The metal price rises first and then falls.
Iron ore The price of iron ore presents an inverted "V" shape. The average CIF price is 164 USD/ton, up 28.3% year-on-year, from 1.5 1.4 USD/ton in 12 years to 175.5 USD/ton. The average domestic iron ore price (66% fine ore) in Hebei is 1382 yuan/ton, up16.1%year-on-year; On a monthly basis, it fluctuated from 65438+14 18 yuan/ton in October to 1467 yuan/ton in August, and then dropped to 65438+0/20/kloc-in February. On September 6th, Tianjin Port imported 63% Indian ore price 1330 yuan/ton and 62% Australian ore price 1280 yuan/ton. February 365438+February 3 1, the prices of the two products decreased to 1040 yuan/ton and 980 yuan/ton, respectively, by 2 1.8% and 23.4%.
Figure 44 Changes of domestic high-quality coal prices
Figure 45 Iron ore price trend
Source: CIF According to customs data, the price of Hebei fine ore comes from the trough network. Since late February, CRU international steel weekly price index has generally been in a downward trend. The decline in iron ore demand caused by the decline in product prices in the downstream steel industry is the main reason for the decline in iron ore prices.
Copper and copper prices fluctuated and fell. The average spot price of domestic copper is 65,900 yuan/ton, up11.8% year-on-year; On a monthly basis, it fluctuated around 70,000 yuan/ton in the first half of the year, from 710.3 million yuan/ton in July to 56,400 yuan/ton in 65,438+February. In the same period, the spot price of copper in the London metal market averaged $8,847/ton, up17.6% year-on-year; On a monthly basis, the international copper price showed a downward trend, from 95 18 USD/ton in 65438+ 10 to 7650 USD/ton in 65438+February (Figure 46).
Figure 46 copper price trend at home and abroad
Data source: Domestic price comes from Beijing Nonferrous Metals Network, and international price comes from China Metal Bulletin.
The price of aluminum rose first and then fell. The average spot price of domestic aluminum 1.68 yuan/ton, up 7.8% year-on-year; On a monthly basis, it gradually rose from 1.65 million yuan/ton in June to 1.80 million yuan/ton in August, and then fell back to 1.6 1.00 million yuan/ton in February. The spot price of aluminum in London metal market averaged $2,400/ton, up10.7% year-on-year; From 2434 USD/ton in June 5438+ 10 to 25665438 USD +0 USD/ton in May, and then to 20465438 USD +0 USD/ton in February 65438+February (Figure 47). The trend of aluminum prices at home and abroad has been divided to some extent, from "strong outside and weak inside" in the first half of the year to "weak outside and strong inside" in the third quarter and then to "convergence" in the fourth quarter. 20 1 1 The overall trend of aluminum price is a slight increase in the first and second quarters, an overall increase in the third quarter, a rapid decline after reaching a high point within two years, and a weak shock in the fourth quarter.
Figure 47 Trend of Aluminum Price at Home and Abroad
Data source: Domestic price comes from Beijing Nonferrous Metals Network, and international price comes from China Metal Bulletin.
Gold prices at home and abroad show a trend of rising first and then falling. The average domestic gold price was 327.8 yuan/gram, up 22.6% year-on-year, rising from 10/65438+356.2 yuan/gram to 194.0 yuan/gram, reaching 390.4 yuan/gram and 65438+on August 23rd. In the same period, the average price of gold in London Gold Exchange was 65,438+0,568.9 USD/oz, up 28.65,438+0.0% year-on-year, from 65,438+0.358 USD/oz in 10 to 65,438+0.739 USD/oz on September 6.
The main reason for the rise in gold prices is the decline in investors' confidence in the currency. First, the quantitative easing monetary policy of the Federal Reserve led to the weakening of the dollar. Since the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve has continuously lowered its target interest rate to near zero, and launched two rounds of asset purchase plans to purchase assets by printing money to revitalize the American economy. But the recovery of American economy is still slow. The Federal Reserve further indicated that it would keep the interest rate extremely low until 20 13 years. At the same time, buy long-term bonds and sell short-term bonds to extend the average life of securities assets. This series of measures makes investors worry that the active and loose monetary policy will eventually lead to the depreciation of the dollar and the rise of inflation, so they buy more gold to maintain the purchasing power of the currency. Second, the eurozone debt crisis has worsened. It has been two years since the Greek debt problem appeared, but it has turned into a crisis and spread to other euro-zone countries. Although the leaders in this region have tried their best to solve the crisis, they still can't completely solve the problem. Even the solvency of the core members of the euro zone has been questioned. The spread between French and Italian government bonds and Germany, the second and third largest economies in the euro zone, has recently risen to a record high. The persistence of the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone will inevitably endanger the stability of the euro and trigger investors to transfer euro assets to gold.
Figure 48 Gold price trend at home and abroad
Source: Domestic price comes from Shanghai Gold Exchange and international price comes from London Precious Metals Exchange.
Domestic rare earth prices soared and plummeted, with the largest increase of nearly 9 times during the year. During the period of 6543810-June, the prices of various rare earth products in China skyrocketed. Lanthanum oxide rose from 29.5 yuan/kg to 165 yuan/kg, neodymium oxide from 290 yuan to 1400 yuan/kg, and terbium oxide from 2950 yuan/kg to 2 1500 yuan/kg. However, in the third quarter, the downstream orders of the rare earth market shrank by nearly half compared with the second quarter, and two-thirds of the downstream enterprises were in a state of suspension or semi-suspension, and the price of rare earth began to decline rapidly. In 65438+February, the price of lanthanum oxide has dropped to 135 yuan/kg, neodymium oxide to 825 yuan/kg, terbium oxide to 13000 yuan/kg, dysprosium oxide to 6900 yuan/kg, and europium oxide to 15000 yuan.
The ups and downs of rare earth prices fundamentally reflect the disorderly competition in the industry. In fact, the situation faced by rare earths has attracted the attention of the country. After the State Council officially issued "Several Opinions on Promoting the Sustainable and Healthy Development of Rare Earth Industry" (referred to as "Article 22 of the State") in May, 20 1, six ministries and commissions jointly issued "On Starting the National Rare Earth Production Order" again in August, 201. It is decided to launch a special rectification campaign for rare earth production order from August 1 1 to February 3 1 to effectively rectify and standardize the rare earth production order. On September 24th, 2065438+0/KLOC-0, the governments of Baotou City, Inner Mongolia, Jining City, Shandong Province and Liangshan Prefecture, Sichuan Province signed the Joint Action Plan for the Development and Supervision of Light Rare Earth Minerals in the three provinces (regions) of Mengluchuan. This is the official start of China's supervision of light rare earth after the implementation of regional linkage of medium and heavy rare earth development supervision in five southern provinces in August, 20 10.
Figure 49 Price changes of important rare earth products in China.
Source: Rare Earth Price Network
Column 9 The state attaches great importance to the management of rare earth industry.
In order to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the rare earth industry, the State Council issued "Several Opinions on Promoting the Sustainable and Healthy Development of the Rare Earth Industry", demanding that the idea of China's rare earth integration be systematized and raised to the national strategic level, and the rare earth industry be reorganized into a "sustainable and healthy development industry" in 45 years by controlling the total mining amount, improving production concentration, cracking down on smuggling and raising the environmental protection threshold. While cultivating large-scale rare earth enterprises in China, we should encourage enterprises to "go global", intervene in the initial stage of rare earth resources development in other countries, realize synchronous development of rare earth resources, and strive to form an "iron ore" situation. We will continue to strengthen communication and close cooperation with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other relevant departments of rare earth industry management, standardize the development of rare earth industry from various aspects such as production field, export control, national purchasing and storage, and establishment of industry regulatory agencies, establish an integrated reserve system of central government, local government and enterprises, give full play to the market role, coordinate the interests of the three, and achieve a win-win situation.
In order to further improve the management of rare earth resources, the Ministry of Land and Resources issued the "Notice on Implementing Several Opinions of the State Council on Promoting the Sustainable and Healthy Development of Rare Earth Industry", requiring land and resources management departments at all levels to crack down on illegal exploration and mining and over-quota mining to maintain a good development order; Strengthen planned reserves and enhance macro-control ability; Comprehensively clean up the exploration and mining rights of rare earths and improve the entry threshold for mining; Continue to promote the development and integration of mineral resources and constantly optimize the development pattern; Strengthen the restoration of geological environment and improve the ecological environment of mining area; Actively promote land reclamation in mining areas and improve the comprehensive benefits of land use; Deepen the regional linkage mechanism and establish a long-term mechanism for rare earth development supervision. Under the leadership of the local government, we will earnestly perform the duties of mineral resources development and management, strengthen the supervision of rare earth development order, and promote the effective protection and rational development and utilization of rare earth resources.
In the first half of the year, the price of rare earth soared, which made many speculators enter the rare earth industrial chain, amplified the demand for rare earth, and created the illusion of serious supply shortage. Due to the decrease of demand in the downstream industries of rare earths in the third quarter and the sharp drop in prices, all the mines and smelting separation enterprises under Ganzhou Rare Earth Mining Company, the leading enterprise in the major rare earth producing areas in the south, started to stop production from June 20th 165438+, while the smelting separation enterprises under Baotou Steel Rare Earth (Group) High-tech Co., Ltd., which dominated 90% of the light rare earth production in northern China, also started to stop production in the middle and late stages. The synchronous shutdown of leading rare earth enterprises in North and South China is mainly due to factors such as falling rare earth prices and traders' selling, and the impact of limiting production and insuring prices is very limited. Their main purpose of stopping production is to reduce the market supply of rare earth smelting and separation products by stopping production, thus curbing the sharp drop in prices.
(3) High price adjustment of nonmetals
The average annual price of potassium chloride in China is 3076 yuan/ton, up 14. 1% year-on-year. From a monthly perspective, the average monthly price shows a trend of rising first and then falling. From 10 to 65438+2760 yuan/ton in October to 3360 yuan/ton in August, and then to 3200 yuan/ton in 65438+February (Figure 50).
Fig. 50 Price changes of potassium chloride in China
Source: National Research Network.
The annual average price of cement was 382.6 yuan/ton, up 17.9% year-on-year. On a monthly basis, it shows a fluctuating upward trend, rising from 366.4 yuan/ton in 65438+ 10 to 384.0 yuan/ton in 65438+February, and the highest monthly price in August is 39 1.5 yuan/ton (Figure 5 1). The increase in labor costs is the main reason for the increase in cement prices.
Figure 5 1 cement price change
Source: National Research Network.