The stock market dawdled, but in 2020, which was named "the worst year in history" by The New York Times, some good news came in the last month.

It is reported that the first large-scale vaccination campaign of global concern is also the largest immunization campaign in British history, which officially started on February 8 12. It is estimated that Britain will deliver 800,000 doses of COVID-19 vaccine.

In addition to the news of the vaccine, the basic dust of the US election has also eliminated a major uncertainty for the global market. Since June 1 1, the increase from major stock indexes to crude oil has been dubbed by investors as "paying annual fees".

However, on the other side of the market, precious metal gold was left out in the cold and began a wave of adjustment. COMEX gold price dropped by more than 15% compared with the peak of $2,089 per ounce in August!

Even because of the increase in volatility, 17 domestic banks announced the suspension of new precious metal account opening business. )。

A reader asked about gold backstage. The bull market of gold began with the release of water from the Federal Reserve, and we began to say it long ago:

"The Federal Reserve releases water. Is there a more certain opportunity to make money than gold in the medium and long term? ? 》

"18 gold fund which is better? 》

"The Fed's" money-saving "gold has skyrocketed, and the most comprehensive investment strategy for the bull market in the middle of the golden period? 》

Why is gold suddenly "not fragrant" recently? Let's go back to the three main factors affecting gold: risk aversion, the dollar and the real interest rate of the dollar.

Among them, hedging is a short-term factor. The so-called cannon rings gold. When similar catastrophes and uncertain events occur, hard currency "gold" has become a sought after thing.

The biggest bad news of the recent gold callback is the progress of the US-UK vaccine. Vaccination in Britain started this week, and the United States is expected to start vaccination work, and according to current reports, the vaccine is effective and cheap.

This kind of vaccine is both "disease prevention" and "medical treatment", which gives everyone a lot of sense of security, and the risk aversion of the market naturally decreases, and the enthusiasm for buying gold decreases.

On the other hand, the more critical long-term factor affecting the price of gold is the real interest rate of the US dollar. Real interest rate = nominal interest rate-inflation.

The price of gold is often called "a reflection of the real interest rate of the US dollar". In the long run, it is highly negatively correlated with the US 10 real interest rate:

Due to the lack of tap water, the real interest rate in the United States 10 has been negative since late March this year. The so-called negative interest rate led to a higher price of gold. However, at the beginning of August, the negative value of the real interest rate began to converge slowly, and the gold price as a "reflection" also fell back.

Does it mean that gold is "out of favor"? In this weakening of the gold price, there are still several anomalies worthy of attention, and perhaps we can see the "small thoughts" of some markets.

1. At present, the real interest rate in the United States peaked at -0.77 in June 1 1, and then fell to -0.93 at the end of June 1 1. However, the price of gold, which should have risen during this period, continued to fall, deviating from the conventional trend.

2. Because gold is now denominated in US dollars, the price is negatively correlated, and the depreciation of the US dollar will almost inevitably lead to an increase in the price of gold, and vice versa.

However, the recent trend of the US dollar index is in sync with gold. For more than half a month, the dollar index has been falling all the way, and at the same time, gold has continued to fall:

This short-term deviation failure is interpreted by many people as that the sell-off in the gold market may be just a change of positions caused by changes in mood and risk preference.

But the long-term logic that the real interest rate dominates the gold price has not changed; The adjusted gold market has not changed the long-term investment value.

What about the gold fund in your hand? In fact, since last week, the decline of gold price has slightly reversed, starting from a low of $65,438+$0.765 and rebounding to $65,438+$0.860.

The rebound of gold is also related to the market expectation that the United States will introduce about $900 billion in additional fiscal stimulus measures. The stimulus plan will inject more funds into the financial system, trigger inflation, lower the real interest rate, and benefit the price of gold.

In addition, when we carefully observe the current economic environment:

Although the vaccine has made progress, the global epidemic has not yet seen a significant turn for the better;

The global economy is still in the stage of continuous repair;

Low interest rates or even negative interest rates continue;

The dollar continued to slump and the global monetary environment was relaxed.

These various factors that were bullish on gold prices before have not fundamentally changed.

Therefore, in a market still full of uncertainty, the asset allocation value of gold is far from being "cold".

Although the gold price fluctuates greatly in the short term, it is necessary to enter the market cautiously, but it is still a rational investment choice to maintain the "ballast stone" role of gold in asset allocation of 5%- 10%.

So as an ordinary investor, where is this "ballast stone" more suitable? Gold ETF or QDII gold fund has low threshold and convenient transaction, which can be said to be the best investment method for individuals.

The difference between the two is that the gold ETF tracks the Shanghai gold price, while the QDII gold fund tracks the international gold price denominated in US dollars. Therefore, the current exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is an important reference index when choosing.

Generally speaking, when the RMB appreciates (as at present), QDII gold funds, such as Harvest Gold and Nuoan Global Gold, can be considered.

On the contrary, when the RMB depreciates, it is a good choice to track the gold ETF and related linked funds of Shanghai Gold, such as Huaan Gold.

It can be seen that under the background of RMB appreciation, Harvest Gold, a fund that tracks international gold prices, has indeed outperformed the ETF fund that tracks domestic gold prices by nearly 1% this year.

In short, the short-term fluctuation of gold and its further upward momentum will depend on whether this round of macroeconomic recovery can further raise US inflation expectations. But in the long run, gold can also be standard, and the supporting environment of gold price is still there, which can play the role of hedging currency.