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How to judge the arrival of the stock market bottom?
Review of important information

1, over 70% of the companies reported interim results, and the performance of many companies doubled continuously.

According to Wind's statistics, as of the close of June 3rd, 1 144 companies issued the performance forecast for the 20 17 interim report, and 853 companies increased in advance, turned losses into losses, slightly increased and continued their earnings, accounting for 74.6%. There are 1 12 companies that have suffered losses for the first time and continuously, accounting for less than11%; Another 125 companies pre-reduced, and 54 companies were "uncertain".

2. State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission: Accelerate the pace of deep adjustment and restructuring of central enterprises. Central enterprises in the future will be divided into three categories.

Peng, Deputy Secretary-General of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, said that in the next step, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission will accelerate the pace of in-depth adjustment and restructuring in accordance with the principle of "maturing one household and promoting one household". In the future, central enterprises are mainly divided into three categories: entity industry groups, investment companies and operating companies.

3. The central bank invested 498 billion yuan in MLF operation to maintain the basic stability of liquidity in the middle of the year.

The People's Bank of China launched the MLF (Medium Term Lending Facility) operation on the 6th, and put 498 billion yuan into the market with a term of 1 year and an interest rate of 3.20%.

4. The rapid growth of railway freight in the first five months experts said that China's economy was not pessimistic in the second half of the year.

According to the data released by China Railway Corporation recently, the national railway freight volume continues to grow at a high speed. From June to May this year, the national railway freight volume was10.203 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.70%. Among them, 246,543.8+billion tons were completed in May, a year-on-year increase of 13%.

5. UBS: The probability of A shares being included in MSCI International Index is higher than before.

According to a report obtained by a reporter from China Securities Network on the 7th, UBS Wealth Management Investment Director's Office published the latest report on China's offshore stocks, arguing that the Shanghai-Shenzhen stock connection mechanism has improved the restrictions on investment in the domestic market, making the probability of China A shares being included in MSCI International Index higher than before, but this is not a foregone conclusion.

Data analysis of capital trend

From the top five of the table 1 daily capital inflow list, the more active sectors this week are computer applications, special equipment and securities insurance. These three sectors ranked in the top five of the capital inflow list three times in the five trading days this week, among which the computer application sector ranked first in the capital inflow list twice, and the computer application sector, as a typical representative of the technology sector, often affected the trend of a large number of small and medium-sized stocks in science and technology, so this week, in addition, it should be noted that the computer application sector and the special equipment sector were frequently listed in the first half of this week, and these two sectors were gradually replaced by the securities and insurance sectors, indicating that the current market hotspots are still in a state of rotation and investment.

Judging from the top five daily capital flows in Table 2, the bank sector is active in short selling this week. In the five trading days this week, it ranked in the top five in terms of capital flows for three times and ranked first in terms of capital flows for two times. However, in the previous market decline, the banking sector has always played a protective role. At that time, because a large number of safe-haven funds poured into the banking sector, the sector even continued to strengthen against the trend. However, when the market picks up, these safe-haven funds may flow out of the banking sector again, so the banking sector has become the heaviest selling sector this week. It is suggested that investors who hold relevant stocks should pay attention to the market rhythm and avoid missing opportunities in the process of market recovery.

market analysis

As can be seen from the figure 1, the market fell slightly this Monday, falling below the 5-day cost moving average; On Tuesday morning, it was even lower and lower, which made many investors panic again. However, at the end of Tuesday, the index suddenly rose, bringing the market back above the 5-day cost moving average; On Wednesday, the market was even more imposing, easily breaking through the suppression of the 13 daily cost moving average, and the market double bottom pattern was finally established; On Thursday and Friday, the market continued to climb slightly upwards. By Friday's close, the index had stood above the 34 cost moving average, and the 5 and 13 cost moving average below had also formed a golden cross. The short-term market strength pattern is very obvious, and the market outlook may continue to fluctuate upwards. Judging from the operation of long and short funds below, in the five trading days of this week, except Monday, the funds in the other four trading days were in an inflow state, especially on Wednesday, and the multi-party funds showed explosive inflow, which was exactly the same as that on May 25, indicating that in the process of the market attack, a large number of funds entered the market to grab funds, laying a solid foundation for the further development of the market. However, due to the recent rapid increase of the index, there may be a possibility of shock consolidation in the broader market next week. At that time, I suggest that you don't panic because of the small retracement of the market. We can pay close attention to the stocks with continuous inflow of funds and low stock prices in the near future, and gradually open positions on dips in the shock.

Figure 2 shows the 0Z index, which effectively reduces the influence of the weight plate and can more truly reflect the operating state of most stocks in the market. As can be seen from the K-line chart of the 0Z index, although the 0Z index rebounded steadily this week and stood on the 5-day cost moving average, the rising speed of the 0Z index was obviously slower than that of the broader market. As of Friday's close, the 0Z index is still hovering around the 13 daily cost moving average, which shows that most stocks in the market are still hesitating during this week's rise, and the short-selling upward trend has not appeared on a large scale. However, this also leaves time for investors to switch positions at low levels. After all, in every round of rising market, there is always a big difference in the increase between individual stocks. So I suggest that you take the time to carefully select stocks this weekend and make full preparations in advance for the further development of the market outlook. Judging from the operation of long and short funds below, all funds flowed in from Monday to Wednesday, and there was a small outflow again on Thursday and Friday. However, compared with the huge inflow of funds on Wednesday, the outflow of funds on Thursday and Friday is still within the normal adjustment range. Investors need not panic too much. On the contrary, they can take advantage of the market shock to explore and gradually build positions in low-priced stocks that have been continuously flowing in recently.

Risk warning: This article is for reference only. The stock market is risky, so be careful when entering the market!