So what is the probability of positive returns during the holding period? We can divide it into two parts, one is holding period and the other is positive return probability.
The holding period is the length of time you buy a fund. For example, if you hold it for half a year, the holding period is half a year.
The probability of positive return is the probability that the return is greater than 0, which is calculated by historical data.
Let's give a simple example: for example, we are going to buy a bond fund, and then we expect to hold this debt base for half a year (180 days).
In addition, this bond fund has been in operation for three years, so what we need to know is the income of this fund bought and held at any time during these three years.
Then the probability of positive income is calculated by statistical method as follows:
Because we expect to hold it for half a year, our main concern is the probability of holding positive returns in the past 180 days. As you can see, the probability of positive return is 95.2%.
This means that according to past performance, if you buy and hold 180 days, there is a 95.2% probability of not losing money.
The significance of this indicator to us is that we can at least roughly judge the stability of the investment performance of this fund from the past situation, and help us make investment decisions to some extent.
The longer the fund operates and the more data it has, the more credible this indicator will be.
02 scale in the process of buying enough bond funds, we can also look at the scale and holder structure. Some friends will ask, do these two factors have any impact on the future performance of bond funds? Bian Xiao explained:
First of all, there is a big difference between bond funds and equity funds, that is, the scale has different effects on them.
For bond funds, the larger the scale, the greater the bargaining power of investment. Compared with the stock market, the transaction scale of the bond market is very huge, and buying a bond transaction casually may involve hundreds of millions of investments;
Moreover, the bond market is not as active as the stock market, and it is basically a bilateral transaction, so the scale determines the bargaining power with the counterparty;
At the same time, the larger the fund, the more bond transactions it can participate in, the more speculative opportunities and varieties, and the more dispersed the overall risk.
For stock funds, the larger the scale, the more obvious the impact cost will be, which is not very beneficial to fund managers who actively invest and operate.
Take Shunhao stock (002565. SZ) as an example. If the scale of fund A is 200 million and the scale of fund B is 7 billion, then the investment strategies and product designs of the two funds are completely consistent.
Suppose both a and b funds want to buy this stock. At present, the circulating market value of Shunhao shares is 7 billion yuan, and the average daily turnover is about 500,000 yuan (1 month, with an average of 6.5438+0.005 million yuan).
Considering the double 5% limit of regulatory requirements, Fund A can buy 65,438+1billion yuan of Shunhao shares, and Fund B can buy 350 million yuan of Shunhao shares.
It can be clearly seen that the 350 million yuan of fund B bought Shunhao shares, which makes it easier to raise the stock price and lengthen the time of opening positions.
These two reasons will lead to an increase in the cost of opening positions, and the influence of fund A on the stock price when purchasing Shunhao shares is far less than that of fund B, so the influence of scale on actively managed stock funds is not very positive.
Therefore, when we buy bond funds, we should try to choose bigger ones, and when we buy stock funds, we should try to choose moderate ones.
3. Support structure
The so-called holder structure refers to the nature of investors holding a fund. We usually divide investors into two categories: institutional investors and individual investors. What impact do these two types of investors have on fund products?
Friends who often pay attention to banks must have heard of bank outsourcing, which is actually an extension of bank wealth management business. After raising funds, bank wealth management products are entrusted to Public Offering of Fund managers for management, which is bank outsourcing.
For publicly raised funds, a publicly raised product is usually set up to undertake such funds. This kind of product has a relatively obscure name, called institutional customized product.
Usually wearing a vest of bond funds, it is hidden. From the outside, it is exactly the same as ordinary bond funds, but we also have a way to identify them.
Specifically, we can check the holder structure of bond funds from the regularly disclosed reports. Generally speaking, funds with more than 80% institutional shareholding are basically customized funds.
So what's the difference between these funds and ordinary bond funds? Because this is more complicated, Bian Xiao simply said two differences.
First, there are differences in investment targets. The bond funds customized by institutions usually invest in bonds with long maturities, which may touch some high-risk and high-yield bonds.
Second, there are differences in investment objectives. Ordinary bond funds usually pay more attention to controlling investment risks, while bond funds customized by institutions usually pay more attention to return targets.
This leads to the organization's customized products can always generate higher returns, which is also reasonable.
As you can imagine, if the expected income of the bank's wealth management products is 4.5%, and the income from outsourcing Public Offering of Fund is less than 4.5%, then the bank will have to pay it back.
Since both the bond funds customized by institutions and ordinary bond funds are Public Offering of Fund, we can buy both types of funds, but the Public Offering of Fund customized by institutions is hidden and will not be specially marketed.
Therefore, if you can't buy your favorite bank wealth management products, or feel that the income of bank wealth management products can't meet your own requirements, in fact, buying a customized debt base is also a good choice.