Image source: Screenshot of People's Republic of China (PRC) and official website of the Central People's Government.
Standing at the starting point of the new 15 year, the industrial development background formulated in this release plan is different from the "Development Plan for Energy Saving and New Energy Automobile Industry (20 12-2020)" issued by the State Council in 2012. At present, under the guidance of China's adherence to the strategic orientation of pure electric drive, the development of new energy automobile industry has made great achievements and become the world. At the same time, however, the development of new energy vehicles in China is also facing some problems, such as weak core technology innovation ability, imperfect quality assurance system, lagging infrastructure construction, imperfect industrial ecology and intensified market competition. In order to promote the high-quality development of the new energy automobile industry and accelerate the construction of a powerful automobile country, the relevant state departments have formulated this plan for the next 15 years.
The release of the Plan has aroused the enthusiasm of the capital market. As of June 3 1 1 1, the new energy automobile sector generally rose, among which many stocks such as Derivative Technology, Hanyu Group and Yingkerui rose more than 10%. The share price of China's new forces in the US stock market rose significantly. As of the close of 1 1.2 EST, the shares of Weilai Automobile, Xpeng Motors and Li rose by 8.96%, 6.9 1% and 13.44% respectively.
Image source: screenshot of stock price fluctuation of Futu Niuniu Ideal Automobile
In 2025, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles will account for "20%" of the target file.
The draft of the Planning for comments was released as early as 20 19 12. After nearly a year's revision and compilation, compared with the previous draft for comments, the plan is basically consistent in development trend and overall deployment, but there are some modifications in the development vision. For example, it is mentioned in the development vision that by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will reach the total sales of new cars.
According to the previous "Planning" draft for comments, by 2025, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach about 25% of the total sales volume of new vehicles, and the recently released "Technology Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles (2.0? It is also proposed that the annual sales of pure electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles will account for 65,438+05%-25% of the total vehicle sales in 2025. From this point of view, the sales ratio of new energy vehicles announced in the plan is lower than 25% in the draft for comment, taking the middle value.
Senior analyst of Geshi Automobile Research Institute believes that the new energy vehicle market is still a policy-driven market, and the market will change from policy-driven development to market-driven development in 2020-2025. In the future, the large-scale promotion of new energy vehicles may face certain obstacles, such as the improvement of charging infrastructure and the maturity of industrial chain, so lowering the target can alleviate the pressure brought by these bottlenecks, and all aspects of the industry and market can also develop together. He believes that by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will reach about 20% of the total sales of new cars, which is more pragmatic.
According to the data of China Automobile Data Co., Ltd., from June 5438 to September this year, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 4.56%. Considering that a series of favorable policies for new energy vehicles have been issued from the state to the local governments this year, it is optimistic to predict that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach 5% in 2020. Ideally, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach 20% in 2025, and the corresponding compound annual growth rate will be 3 1.95%.
Pay attention to the average power consumption target of pure electric passenger cars.
Compared with the previous draft, the average power consumption standard of new electric passenger cars has been promoted to the development vision of the plan, that is, by 2025, the average power consumption of new electric passenger cars in China will be reduced to 12.0kWh/ 100km. At the same time, the plan deleted the average fuel consumption of new plug-in hybrid passenger cars in 2025 and dropped to 2.0 liters/100 kilometers.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Information Association, believes that the planned energy consumption target provides development space for all kinds of vehicles, which is conducive to the diversified development of vehicles, such as sports cars, SUVs and other vehicles with relatively high energy consumption, and can also replace the development of traditional fuel vehicles.
Porsche Taikang is in charge
It is understood that the average power consumption refers to the average power consumption, that is, the average power consumption of a group of vehicles calculated by weighting the number of vehicles corresponding to the model. Looking up the main parameters of the Catalogue of Recommended Vehicles for Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles (2020 Batch 1 1) recently issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, it is found that more than 20 pure electric passenger cars have entered the catalogue, and the power consumption per 100 kilometers under the working condition of 12 models is higher than 12 kWh. For example, the power consumption of Weilai brand pure electric multi-purpose passenger car with battery replacement is 20.00 kWh per 100 kilometers, and that of ARCFOX pure electric multi-purpose passenger car is 16.3 kWh per 100 kilometers. Under working conditions, almost half of the vehicles have a fuel consumption of less than 12 kWh per 100 kilometers. For example, the fuel consumption of the Great Wall Euler brand pure electric vehicle is 10.30 kWh, and that of BYD brand pure electric vehicle is11.40kwh..
In fact, as early as the release of the planning draft, there was some controversy in the industry about the average power consumption index of new cars for pure electric passenger cars. Some people think that power consumption and fuel consumption should not be simply compared, and setting power consumption targets may affect the development of intelligent networked vehicles. With the continuous development of intelligent networking, more intelligent devices such as sensors will increase power consumption, which will also lead to an increase in power consumption of electric vehicles.
In this "planning", Gaspar found that the development vision of intelligent networked cars is relatively weak. Compared with the previous draft for comments, the "Planning" deleted the goal of "by 2025, the sales volume of new intelligent networked vehicles will reach 30%", but proposed that by 2025, highly autonomous vehicles will be commercialized in limited areas and specific scenarios.
The senior analyst of Geshi Automobile Research Institute believes that the plan to delete the sales target of intelligent networked vehicles in 2025 is related to the unclear definition of intelligent networked vehicles by all parties. If L2 cars are also defined as intelligent networked cars, it may exceed 30% this year. He believes that the commercialization of highly autonomous driving in limited areas and specific scenes is more in line with the actual situation and industrial development law of China. Therefore, the plan still takes pragmatism as the primary starting point and corrects the shortcomings of the original policy.
Charging and replacing facilities and hydrogen fuel construction were mentioned again.
In addition to changing the future development vision of 15, the plan also focuses on building a charging and replacing network and a hydrogen fuel supply system. Chapter 6 of the Plan mentions that it is necessary to speed up the construction of charging and replacing infrastructure, improve the service level of charging infrastructure and encourage business model innovation. Among them, the plan proposes to encourage the application of power exchange mode, strengthen the research and development of new charging technologies such as intelligent and orderly charging, high-power charging and wireless charging, and improve charging convenience and product reliability.
In this regard, Cui Dongshu believes that the charging and replacing facilities in the planning are proposed to strengthen the charging and replacing service, which has a stronger guiding significance for the charging and replacing mode. "Slow charging is the future development direction, and fast charging should also establish a system. The power exchange mode has the particularity of the scene, and the attention has also been significantly improved. " Cui Dongshu said.
Image source: Weilai Automobile
In the construction of hydrogen fuel supply system, the plan proposes to improve the economy of hydrogen fuel storage and transportation. Develop the application of industrial by-product hydrogen and renewable energy to produce hydrogen according to local conditions, and accelerate the industrialization of advanced and applicable hydrogen storage materials. Carry out demonstration applications of various storage and transportation technologies such as high-pressure gas, cryogenic gas, cryogenic liquid and solid, explore the construction of hydrogen fuel transportation pipelines, and gradually reduce the storage and transportation costs of hydrogen fuel. Improve the standard system of hydrogen fuel production, storage, transportation and filling. Strengthen the research on hydrogen fuel safety and strengthen the safety supervision of the whole chain.
In addition, the construction of hydrogenation infrastructure will be promoted. Establish and improve the management norms of hydrogenation infrastructure. Guide enterprises to rationally arrange hydrogenation infrastructure according to hydrogen fuel supply and consumption demand, and improve the level of safe operation.
According to statistics, at present, 36 cities in China have issued hydrogen energy development plans and policies. According to incomplete statistics, 74 hydrogen refueling stations have been built and 32 are under construction. It is estimated that the number of hydrogen refueling stations will exceed 100 in 2020.
Conclusion:
At present, new energy vehicles have become the main direction of the transformation and development of the global automobile industry and an important engine to promote the sustained growth of the world economy. China's new energy automobile industry is also in a new stage of accelerated development. Generally speaking, 15 still adheres to the development direction of electrification, networking and intelligence for the overall idea of future deployment, and at the same time improves and perfects the problems exposed in the existing development, such as China's new energy automobile industry to break through key core technologies, enhance industrial basic capabilities, build a new industrial ecology, and improve the infrastructure system. Generally speaking, "New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (202 1-2035)" points out the development direction and goal of the future 15 new energy automobile industry, which is conducive to promoting the high-quality sustainable development of China's new energy automobile industry and accelerating the construction of a powerful automobile country.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.