A-shares have fallen for three consecutive years from 2015 to 2018. During this period, as long as there is a slight rebound, some people will shout that the bull market is coming, and some will shout slogans to directly rush to 4,000 points. In fact, the reason is very simple.

In a bear market, many people think that every time I rebound, I call a bull market and keep actively going long. Sooner or later, I will be wrong.

If the bull market really comes, you can make a lot of money. Therefore, in the early and middle stages of the bear market, there are still many people who think A shares will rise sharply.

Another factor is determined by A’s trading mechanism. A shares are a one-way trading mechanism. You can only make money if the price goes up.

If you take a short position every day and shout down every day, you won't make much money throughout the year. Unless it is actually in the process of a bear market decline, a short position will be better than a long position; no matter whether the result is a profit or a loss, you try it, and those

People with short positions don't even have a chance to try. The cruelest way to treat a stock investor is to keep him short for a long time!

There are also many stock commentators who are bullish on the market every day, because the vast majority of retail investors in the market are in a bear market, and their enthusiasm for being bullish is also loved by retail investors.

The most famous one is Teacher Li Daxiao. He shouted the so-called diamond bottom at 3000 points and the baby bottom at 2500 points. No one knows where the real bottom is.

At present, short-selling markets such as stock index futures and securities lending in the market are prepared for institutions or large investors, while retail investors often can only earn the price difference by fighting in the secondary market.

For small traders, they can only make money by waiting for a bull market and stock prices to rise sharply.

In the final analysis, those who are bullish on the stock market are always the largest group of people in the market, retail investors. They come to the market with the dream of getting rich. Everyone has a sense of luck, what if they make a profit this time, so everyone

You can only work hard to do more.

Of course, during the bull market decline, the so-called "experts" shouting that the bull market is coming and retail investors holding on and waiting are just to increase everyone's confidence in A-shares!

Indeed, many people always think that the stock market will rise sharply.

I never felt that a fall in the stock market would pose much risk. Even in 2018, I thought the stock market would rise sharply. This year, I still feel that the stock market will rise sharply.

At one of our class reunions, a classmate said that this year will be the same bull market as in 2014-15.

The words are astonishing.

Asked why he felt this way, he said that with the launch of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, the index cannot fall. The top management has set the tone for the stock market like never before, so the stock market will definitely surpass 15 years.

You know, the person who said this is the general manager of a sales department of a securities firm!

(Excluding the temptation to increase funds and make more transactions, after all, the relationship and relationship between classmates are very good).

So, why do some people always think that the stock market will rise sharply?

I guess there may be the following reasons: First, the lack of macro-thinking ability about the country's finance and economy.

We cannot see the dilemma of the financial and economic situation gradually increasing pressure and increasing problems.

It is also impossible to understand how these dilemmas are formed and how to resolve them.

Second, there is a lack of understanding of the stock ecology, and they do not know that most companies in the stock market have performance decline, fraud, equity crisis and fraud, as well as internal related transactions and related acquisitions.

Third, they are innate optimists. Even if they lose money for a long time, they still imagine that the stock market will rise sharply one day, and they will make back all the money they lost from the stock market and still make a fortune.

In fact, the stock market ecology has an obvious turning point in 2015-16. This turning point is the gradual tightening of supervision, the space for capital operation and storytelling is gradually squeezed, industrial capital continues to withdraw from junk companies, and investor differentiation becomes more serious.

That is, the number of people withdrawing from junk companies and entering good companies gradually increases.

Take the Hong Kong Stock Connect and MSCI Index Funds as examples. They continue to buy Chinese stocks in large quantities, but most of the time they are unable to reverse the decline of the index. They have an impact on market sentiment in a certain structure and time. Why is this?

Because a large number of domestic private equity and public equity funds have too many investments in small start-up companies, due to lack of liquidity, they cannot exit quickly and can only continue to exit. This has led to a gradual increase in the scarcity of blue chip stocks and a gradual shift in the focus of junk stocks.

The group keeps growing.

Comparing the index trends of CSI 300, SSE 50 and CSI 1000, the differentiation gap after 16 years is huge and gradually widening. This also illustrates my above logic, that is, industrial funds are withdrawing, and a large number of private equity and public funds are continuously withdrawing from junk companies.

the trend of.

People who always think that the stock market will rise sharply lack awareness of the macroeconomic and financial situation, and lack of understanding of the differences between the mid- and long-term trends of the 50 Index and the CSI 1000 Index.

He has no macro thinking at all, still operates frequently, and is still obsessed with the speculation of junk stocks and theme stocks.

They still regard the brokerage sales department as the God who saves the world, but they don't know that they are the biggest harvester.

Therefore, judging from the current situation of Hong Kong stocks, South Korea and the mature US market, whether there will be a bull market in the future will only be a bull market for core assets, rather than a comprehensive bull market and a bull market where chickens and dogs rise to heaven.