The impact of global political and economic situations on the gold market 1. The impact of political and financial events on the price of the U.S. dollar and gold is becoming complicated.

The frequent occurrence of financial crises in the 1990s has shown that financial globalization has entered a new stage.

First, as the status of emerging countries increases and their influence increases, currency problems of small countries will also trigger global financial turmoil.

Second, globalization is a double-edged sword, with both advantages and disadvantages.

Third, with the development of financial globalization and informatization, international financial risks are increasing **** Popular clicks **** Special recommendations **** How to treat acne, bad breath, oral ulcers, and care for women if you accidentally become pregnant. Focusing on women’s health, my country has made new breakthroughs in the treatment of kidney disease amid the hot investment promotion!

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Therefore, in the general trend of economic globalization, people must also explore new international financial security mechanisms.

However, as the global hegemon, the performance of the United States in the international community is often difficult to understand.

At the critical moment of the international financial crisis, the United States did not play the role of "savior".

This has intensified people's concerns about the United States and the dollar, but the global turmoil has made people look forward to the stability of the dollar.

The sharp rise in gold and oil prices has prompted a large number of international hedge funds to participate in profit-seeking, which in turn has an impact on the trend of the US dollar.

International market relations are becoming increasingly complex.

2. The impact of the strength of the US dollar on the price of gold.

Since the gold market price is priced in US dollars, in general, an appreciation of the US dollar will push the price of gold down, while a depreciation of the US dollar will push the price of gold up.

The strength of the U.S. dollar will have a very significant impact on gold prices.

Therefore, when analyzing the trend of gold prices, we should make a directional judgment on the future trend of the US dollar.

What period is the U.S. dollar in?

First, the birth of the euro and the launch of the Asian dollar pose a huge challenge to the US dollar. Objectively speaking, the world economy's demand for the US dollar is shrinking.

The U.S. economy is also showing some bad signs, among which the "twin deficits" are particularly eye-catching.

In 1978, the total current account deficit of the United States was less than 1% of its GDP, but today it is close to 6%.

American households save at a much lower rate today than they did 28 years ago, so they borrow more to buy homes and spend money.

The federal government has also borrowed more foreign debt. In 2005, the U.S. government budget deficit rose to 3.6% of GDP from 2.7% in 1978.

Fortunately, so far, there are still some situations that are different from that time. For example, the inflation level in the United States is relatively much lower than it was then. Investors still have confidence in the United States and believe that the Federal Reserve will continue to maintain this state.

Although the fall of the US dollar and the rise in oil prices have recently caused a slight increase in inflation, the 14 consecutive interest rate hikes have led most people to believe that this is only a temporary phenomenon, and the US dollar did bottom out in 2005.

Compared with 9% in 1979, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond remains at 4%, the lowest level in nearly 40 years.

Judging from the trend of the U.S. dollar in the foreign exchange market, from 2001 to the end of 2004, the U.S. dollar began a process of substantial depreciation. The U.S. dollar index fell from more than 120 points to more than 80 points, which largely promoted

Strong rise in gold prices.

However, since 2005, the U.S. dollar has begun to enter an upward trend, which has inhibited gold's continued rise.

Generally speaking, there is a negative correlation between the U.S. dollar index and gold prices, but there are many exceptions.

However, this exceptional situation is only short-term and cannot exist for a long time.

This is because the gold market and the foreign exchange market are two financial markets that interact with each other but are independent of each other. In addition to being affected by external factors, they also have their own internal operating rules. The trend of the US dollar index only provides a frame of reference.

Therefore, it is necessary to pay close attention to the trend of the US dollar index, but the trend analysis of the US dollar index cannot be used to replace the trend analysis of the international gold price.

3. Crude oil futures prices reflect that the international economic situation is at the cusp of the storm.

Crude oil prices have been in an upward channel for five or six consecutive years, especially the strong rise in the past two years (from a periodic low of 24.87 US dollars per barrel in April 2003 to a historic high in August 2005

(USD 71.36/barrel), it is still operating in the high price zone near USD 60/barrel recently, indicating that global economic development has reached the cusp of the storm again.

By comparing the trends in international crude oil prices and gold prices, we can find that there is a positive correlation between the rise and fall of international gold prices and crude oil futures prices for most of the time.

However, there are also phenomena where crude oil futures prices and gold prices rise and fall inconsistently.

Therefore, the international crude oil futures price can only provide a reference system for the international gold price, and the method of analyzing the crude oil futures price cannot replace the analysis of the international gold price trend.

However, sufficient attention should be paid to the global economic problems reflected in the changes in international crude oil futures prices and the impact these problems will have on the gold market.