Since September this year, after the international crude oil futures price broke through the $80 mark in a record, it has set a new record for many times after a slight downward adjustment, and once soared to $90 per barrel in intraday trading.

This round of international oil price rise is even more unreasonable in the view of Dao Heng Securities analysts. "In the past, after the hurricane season in the United States, oil prices generally fell to a certain extent. Instead of falling, it will rise this year. Apart from the impact of basic data such as US oil inventory data and OPEC crude oil production, the biggest factor is the speculation of international speculators. "

Guan Qingyou, an expert on oil issues at the Tsinghua University National Situation Research Center, pointed out that the top ten hedge funds in the world accumulated 654.38+050 billion US dollars. Although it is not clear how much money is used to speculate on oil futures, it is certain that a large part of it is involved in speculation.

At the same time, he said that there is no obvious downward trend in the demand for oil from Asia and other countries in major oil consuming countries and emerging markets, which will support the international crude oil price to operate at a high level.

Domestic refined oil prices will not increase.

Yesterday, Zhu Zhixin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, publicly stated that the sharp rise in crude oil prices will increase the cost of refining, and without adjustment of domestic refined oil prices, it will inevitably squeeze the profits of refining enterprises. However, he also said that the price increase is both pressure and motivation, which is conducive to the energy-saving and emission-reduction work of enterprises using crude oil as raw materials.

He emphasized that the adjustment of domestic refined oil prices takes into account not only the cost price of crude oil, the relationship between supply and demand, the finished products of enterprises and other factors, but also the social affordability. "Two benefits are the most important and two disadvantages are the least."

The reporter interviewed a number of analysts and agreed that in view of the high domestic CPI index and the current inflationary pressure, raising the price of refined oil products will inevitably lead to an increase in the price of upstream raw materials, further pushing up the CPI index, so it is expected that at least the price adjustment policy will not be introduced at the end of the year.

The supply of refined oil is still tight

The relevant person in charge of Sinopec Group pointed out that Sinopec has been refining at a loss since June this year. With the international oil price rising, the losses are further aggravated, and some small refineries have been unable to bear the losses and shut down.

He revealed that in order to ensure domestic supply, Sinopec's refining and chemical enterprises have adjusted the maintenance cycle of 5438+ 10 in June to further increase production capacity. In August and September, the average monthly processing volume of crude oil increased by 370,000 tons compared with that in June (5438+10-July), of which the domestic supply of refined oil increased by about 390,000 tons, but it still could not meet the rapid growth of the market.

According to the information published on the website of Sinopec, on June 5438+08, Beijing's refined oil market was short of resources, of which a small amount of PetroChina gasoline was transported abroad and diesel oil was basically stopped. Sinopec's gasoline and diesel were delivered normally, but the social unit completely stopped selling this batch of gasoline and diesel. At present, the price of Sinopec 90# standard gasoline is 5850 yuan/ton, 93# standard gasoline is about 6 100 yuan/ton, and the price of 0# standard diesel is about 5600 yuan/ton.