Speculation on the state reserve of copper is typical.
I'll extract it for you.
"I thought it was a gold mine, but it was actually a fire pit." Under the encirclement and suppression of international funds, domestic institutions are once again fragile.
Fragile. This time, it was the State Reserve Copper that was targeted by financial predators.
It took only two months to rise from $3,500 to $4,200. It is widely rumored in the market that the National Material Reserve Adjustment Center (hereinafter referred to as the National Reserve Center) has a floating loss of more than 654.38 billion US dollars, and there are countless insiders who follow suit.
Gambling may have just begun, and the outcome has not yet been decided, but how many rat warehouses are hidden behind the NDRC's approval to regulate copper prices? Who is state-owned capital paying for? The massive emptying of copper, which relies on 60% imports, has formed a confrontation with international speculative purchases. Will China import copper next year? Are all the people who "pat their heads" going to leave on this matter?
From 165438+1October16, the 20,000 tons of copper sold to the market by China State Material Reserve Bureau (hereinafter referred to as the State Reserve Bureau) was quickly submerged by the high tide. 165438+1On October 23rd, the State Reserve Bureau sold 20,000 tons of copper again, and the effect gradually appeared. The day before, LME copper in March finally lowered its head and closed at 4 1 10 USD/ton, down 105 USD from the previous trading day.
According to the transaction data, the varieties delivered on February 265438+February 2 1 hold 4 1098 lots (about10.02 million tons, 25 tons each), and the total positions of all copper futures contracts are 2 1067 lots (about 250,000 tons).
"If the position and inventory are at this ratio, the trend has nothing to do with fundamentals, and it is entirely a gamble of funds." Song Guoqing, a professor at Peking University Economic Research Center, said.
An empty list of dangers
This incident originated from 8000 empty bills of a trader named Liu.
Liu is the director of the import and export department of the State Reserve Center, responsible for the hedging and cross-market arbitrage of materials (mainly copper) of the State Reserve. A futures trader said that Liu had disappeared around the "Eleventh" this year. Later, the person in charge of the National Reserve Center said that these empty sheets were Liu's personal behavior, "not ours".
According to one dealer's estimation, Liu placed 8,000 lots (200,000 tons) of short copper orders for three months around September 20th, and the price was around 3,500 dollars. After that, LME copper prices rose all the way. The "Eleventh" holiday rose by 158 USD, and the bears suffered heavy losses.
According to the calculation of more than US$ 5,000 (US$ 200/ton) per lot of copper mine, the deposit required by Liu Kongdan is as high as US$ 40 million, and it will be added continuously due to floating losses. According to speculation, due to the need to add a huge margin, Liu's empty order cannot be concealed and exposed.
After the news of Liu Bei's quilt spread, the market expected that 200,000 tons of empty orders could not be delivered, so it could only cut the meat and push up the price in many ways, so copper futures soared again. As of June 22nd, the loss of 165438+ Liu Suojian's empty bill has reached USD 600/ton, totaling USD 65438+USD 200 million.
Just as the copper price soared and Liu Kongdan's loss was getting bigger and bigger, the practice of the State Reserve Bureau made the market noisy again.
On June 1 16 and June165438+123, respectively, the State Reserve Bureau entrusted the State Reserve Center to sell 20,000 tons of copper by open bidding. The news that the reporter got from the spot dealer said that such an auction will continue twice.
Although the State Reserve Bureau interprets throwing copper as a supporting measure for macro-control and "alleviating the current tight domestic copper supply and meeting domestic consumption demand", as Liu himself is a trader in the State Reserve Center, the State Reserve Bureau entrusts the State Reserve Center to auction copper, and the market is more willing to interpret his move as a confrontation with international funds.
There are various rumors about how Liu established these positions and who will "pay the bill". The latest news is that eight international futures brokerage companies and fund companies for Liu Jiancang will send people to Beijing to negotiate this matter with the State Reserve Center.
A "big head" fell from the sky
"He was authorized to do so? Who authorized it? " Song Guoqing asked. He believes that if there is authorization, it can only be said that the authorized person does not understand the international futures market. "I thought it was a gold mine, but it was actually a pit of fire."
"China is a copper importer and should do more in the futures market." Huang Yongshan, director of Beijing Zhou Tong Investment Technology Research Institute, said, "If we produce more quilts, we will provide a firm offer. We will import copper anyway. Shorting is simply speculation. "
According to foreign news, Liu "has a gentle personality and is quite low-key." He is famous in the circle because he accurately judged the start of the copper bull market two years ago and is "famous for his skillful technical analysis". People in the domestic futures industry generally believe that Liu's position is getting bigger and bigger because he refuses to admit defeat.
"I haven't made such a long and short bet on copper futures for a long time. Foreign funds have strict risk control. After losing weight to a certain extent, they will stop rather than continue to add weight. It's hard for everyone to find an opponent. This time, Liu was caught, "Huang Yongshan said." It's not so much that international hot money is calculating China. Rather, our risk control is too weak. With such a big list, someone will naturally come to you. "
Author: Qiu Feng still replied to this speech on 2005-12-1711:32.
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2 China was forced to empty the warning of the battle for the pricing power of the State Reserve Copper.
In fact, Liu's position is only 65438+ 0/5 of all empty orders.
"In addition to these 200,000 tons, how many are following the trend?" Huang Yongshan said: "Many domestic institutions have lost money in LME this year. This time, if someone comes out to cooperate with foreigners, they will definitely come in and short, and they will retaliate. "
According to the report of Securities Market Weekly, in addition to a large state-owned nonferrous metal company with empty orders of10.5 million tons, a famous domestic futures speculator has also set foot in it.
"If the quantity is large enough, you can ignore the fundamentals. Because of the spot loss, futures can be earned back by forcing the air. " Professor Song Guoqing said, "The key to shorting in the futures market is to let bulls grasp the spot. Although there will be an oversupply of copper next year, the inventory growth is a slow process, ranging from 30,000 to 50,000 tons per month. The bulls only need to eat the increased inventory. "
However, the on-site control of bulls in LME copper futures market is obviously extraordinary.
June165438+1October 10 Chile's State-owned Copper Industry Committee (Cochilco) lowered its copper production forecast for 2005 from the original 5.504 million tons to 5.372 million tons. As the largest copper producer, Chile's copper output in 2004 was 5.6 million tons, accounting for 36% of the global total output. Among them, the copper output of copper mines controlled by foreign companies is 3.09 million tons.
On the one hand, the futures price soared, and on the other hand, the news that the largest copper producer reduced production was intriguing.
LME traders believe that speculators have bought a lot of copper, creating the illusion of shortage. This strategy is the same as that adopted by Tadao Hama in the Sumitomo incident 10 years ago, and the artificial manufacturing market is in short supply.
Alan Lu, an analyst at Hongye Futures, believes that the price of crude oil, as the leading commodity, has been falling continuously recently, and the prices of aluminum, tin and nickel have not performed very well, and the prices of agricultural products have hit record lows. Therefore, inflation cannot be used to explain the rise of copper prices. The strength of the US dollar is also negative for copper prices. If the "China factor" is at work, Shanghai copper futures prices have been lagging behind London copper futures prices.
Therefore, the only reason why LME copper futures rose sharply was "forced liquidation".
In recent years, the global control of non-ferrous metals has been further concentrated. Although the relationship between supply and demand in the copper market is facing a turning point, the bulls take advantage of the lack of inventory in the exchange to squeeze positions, and the bears are not prepared enough for this, which greatly increases the probability of success of this desperate "forced position" behavior.
Under the planned encirclement and suppression of international funds, Liu, who is famous for his skillful technical analysis, has become the "big head" of the market.
Add mistakes to mistakes.
Regardless of whether the international fund has a conspiracy or not, the objective conditions are unfavorable to China institutional investors who participate in LME. Huang Yongshan believes that due to the lack of an influential financial platform and the inability of domestic futures brokerage companies to become members of LME, domestic institutional investors can only quote through overseas institutions, and the core information of their transactions is mastered, so they are often passive in the game.
LME members are divided into five categories, the highest level is ring trading, which can conduct self-operation, brokerage, settlement and other businesses, and trade 24 hours a day. This kind of brokerage company is called "market maker". The "market maker" must quote for market participants at any time. And a large number of empty orders like Liu may force the "market maker" to become the long-term main force. Once this happens, these "market makers" are both brokers and self-employed, and they know their opponents' every move and have a good chance of winning.
To say the least, even if "market makers" are not self-employed, they are inextricably linked with international funds. It is easy for China investors to expose their business secrets through the foreign-funded institution trading agent, thus becoming the target pursued by international funds.
In addition, due to the global financial environment with low interest rates, the derivatives market is full of hot money.
According to the data released by American Pioneer Hedge Fund International Consulting Company, the total assets managed by global hedge funds increased by 24% in 2003 and 16% in 2004. In 2004, the new investment of global hedge funds reached130 billion US dollars. There are about 500 hedge fund companies in London alone, managing about $654.38+02 billion in assets.
These funds are always looking for prey.
In LME, 1000 lots will become the target immediately. "Both sides of a large transaction know each other very well, and brokers can spread a message throughout the market within 5 minutes." An LME trader said.
Compared with the experienced international funds that have been in the market for many years, China investors are too immature.
Song Guoqing pointed out that China's huge foreign exchange reserves bought a large number of US Treasury bonds, thus ensuring the low interest rate of the US dollar. The low interest rate environment makes large-scale hot money flood into the derivatives market for speculation. In this sense, "China's foreign exchange reserves indirectly forced China to be in the copper futures market."
Author: Qiu Feng still replied to this speech on 2005-12-1711:32.
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3 China was forced to empty the warning of the battle for the pricing power of the State Reserve Copper
Huang Yongshan said that copper is different from other commodities, its storage cost is extremely low, grain will expire, and crude oil storage is dangerous. As for copper, "bronzes thousands of years ago are still good to dig out." Moreover, the spot size of copper is very small, which is equivalent to "small-cap stocks" in the international financial market, and it is easy to be forcibly sold.
Risks of national reserves
Just when the National Reserve Center began to throw copper, the news of "missing traders" spread all over LME. As a result, the copper futures price difference between Shanghai and London is widening: Shanghai copper is in a dilemma, while LME is soaring.
Whether in London or at home, some people think that the real intention of the State Reserve Bureau to throw copper is by no means to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand; It is to suppress the LME copper price to reduce the losses caused by empty orders.
Although there are rumors that the inventory of the State Reserve Bureau exceeds 6.5438+0.3 million tons of copper, and China plans to export 200,000 tons of copper, the LME copper price remains unmoved and continues to rise.
On the one hand, the IMF believes that in 2004, due to the decline in imports but the increase in consumption, China's domestic production and imports were insufficient to meet consumer demand. At that time, the State Reserve released about 200,000 to 300,000 tons of copper, and the inventory was empty, and it will be replenished at an appropriate time.
On the other hand, the bulls are already riding a tiger, and they have a lot of cash and funds in their hands, which is strong in pressure resistance. They won't stop until they see the copper in storage.
This has caused the situation that the more high-profile the State Reserve Bureau throws copper, the more international funds have no fear of pushing up copper prices.
Basically, 8000 hands are still empty. So far, no one is responsible for this vicious incident except the missing Liu.
Both the State Reserve Bureau and the State Reserve Bureau Center said that these empty orders had nothing to do with them. It seems more like Liu used his power to make a lot of deals. It is incredible that such a huge amount of money can be used without being noticed. In these unusual transactions, Liu did not encounter any trouble, and the weakness of financial risk control of relevant departments can be seen.
In London, LME denied that the National Reserve Board was a member. Only members can be allowed to trade, so Liu's trade may be done through other members. LME said that the responsibility of the exchange is only to maintain the trading order, and it is the responsibility of members to verify the identity of customers.
In China, according to relevant policies, overseas futures investment must be approved by the CSRC. An official of the CSRC said that the China government only allows 3 1 companies to conduct futures trading overseas, and the State Reserve Center is not one of them. Then, aside from Liu's over-limit positions, is it appropriate for the State Reserve Center to bypass the CSRC and directly send traders to conduct futures trading?
Some market participants believe that this incident reflects the opaque operation of the foreign storage department and the lax internal control mechanism, resulting in a precedent for losses.
The "cotton storage incident" is one of them. China Reserve Cotton Management Company was established in March 2003. By the beginning of 2005, the loss of reserve cotton in China was nearly 654.38 billion yuan, equivalent to its total registered capital.
An enterprise researcher commented that the state reserve enterprises are engaged in business activities at the same time, which will easily lead enterprises to transfer the business risks that may occur at any time to the reserve activities, thus increasing the risks and costs of the state reserve and reducing the efficiency of its functions.
The hand of the government
Although the official has never given a formal response to the "Liu incident", the State Reserve Bureau, which has always been mysterious and low-key, has made frequent high-profile appearances recently. Officials from the National Development and Reform Commission, its competent department, also often comment on copper prices. The intention to control the inflated copper price is obvious.
Jia, deputy director of the Economic Operation Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission, said recently that the rise in copper prices triggered a substantial increase in investment in copper smelting. According to preliminary investigation, there are currently 18 projects under construction and planning in China, with a total construction capacity of 2.05 million tons. According to the development trend, the smelting capacity will be nearly 3.7 million tons by the end of 2007, far exceeding the national copper concentrate resource guarantee capacity and the amount of copper concentrate that may be provided by the international market at that time.
Previously, Chile's state-owned copper company (Codelco) predicted that the price of copper would fall to $1 1 pound ($2,205/ton) in 2007 due to oversupply.
In other words, when China can be released, the copper price is low, and the competition for copper concentrate resources will greatly increase the production cost of copper. China copper industry will suffer huge losses, and the inefficiency of investment is obvious.
To this end, the National Development and Reform Commission said that it will curb blind investment in the copper smelting industry through economic and legal means.
As one of the supporting measures for regulation and control, the State Material Reserve Bureau under the National Development and Reform Commission entrusted the State Reserve Center to auction 20,000 tons of copper on 10/16 and 165438+23 respectively. Moreover, such an auction will last twice.
In addition, Wang Huimin, director of the State Reserve Center, confirmed that the Center continuously threw out 40,000 tons of copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange through COFCO Futures. In the first two weeks of June 165438+ 10, the copper inventory in the previous period increased by more than 32,000 tons. Industry insiders estimate that a large part of the new inventory will be used for the delivery of empty bills held by the State Reserve Center. At the same time, it is reported that the State Reserve has transported18,000 tons of copper to LME's warehouse in Asia, and will export another 30,000 tons of copper for delivery before the end of1/kloc-0.
"Securities Market Weekly" learned that the selling operation will be carried out by the State Reserve in both domestic and foreign futures and spot markets at the same time, and the selling strength will be grasped evenly and reasonably. Spot auction will be adopted in June165438+1October, and futures delivery will be adopted in February 65438 and June 65438+1October next year, with an average release of inventory.
As early as the beginning of 1 1, an official of the national development and reform commission asked experts in the futures industry whether it was feasible to release 200,000 tons of state reserve copper. This shows that the total amount of copper thrown by the State Reserve may be around 200,000 tons.
Li Jinbao, an analyst with Shanghai Interim Company, said that this series of measures means that copper price regulation has entered a substantive stage, so as to ease the tight demand for copper in the domestic market and curb the excessive growth of copper production capacity.
Previously, the National Development and Reform Commission had conducted similar supervision on other industries. For example, since the beginning of 2004, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have taken a series of control measures for the steel, cement and electrolytic aluminum industries. Therefore, in April 2004, the price of electrolytic aluminum began to drop by 2000 yuan/ton. Since September 2004, the price of cement in East China has been declining, from the highest 400 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton; The price of steel was the last one to turn around. The comprehensive index of steel fell from 139 in mid-April 2005 to 104 at present, and it has not stopped falling so far.
Obviously, the National Development and Reform Commission is handy in regulating domestic commodity prices. This time, what will happen if you meet international speculators on copper prices?
In the past year or two, "China" has repeatedly become a hot spot in the international commodity futures market. Whether it's crude oil, metals or agricultural products, the price of China, a big buyer, will skyrocket as soon as he makes a move. The reason is that whoever can influence the futures price will have the initiative in pricing.
From this point of view, if there is a good intention behind this copper transaction-adjusting prices through the futures market, it is also of positive significance. However, whether it can be successful is still unknown.
Song Guoqing believes that domestic institutions do not know enough about international speculative forces. In recent years, the domestic futures industry has been creating a lot of public opinion for the "commodity pricing power", but it has not taken into account the lack of necessary financial platforms and competitive financial institutions in China. Foreign-funded institutions not only have capital and technological advantages, but also have the "hegemony" of rating and public opinion. Simply put, they made the "rules of the game". Domestic institutions are weak, at a disadvantage, and do not understand the rules of the international financial market, which inevitably leads to losses.
This situation will continue to happen as China is increasingly integrated into the global economy. Therefore, it is wise to plan the response measures as soon as possible.
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In a word, futures trading that should have been used for hedging has become speculation.
In the case of the national reserve of copper, Liu Bing changed hands to bet that the copper price would fall, and at the same time, the national reserve could not pay for the shortage of copper. China is also an importer of copper.
Therefore, the people who originally hedged were really engaged in speculation, and were bought by foreign parties to push up the copper price, and finally lost money.
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The enlightenment to us is that when China does not have absolute international financial strength.
In derivatives, we should strictly engage in hedging activities and not speculate.
At the same time, we will establish a strict fund supervision system to avoid continuing to hide gambling after losses, and want to smooth this hole.