What to watch in the stock market: The decline continues, and the shock bottoms out (1) One-week trading overview: The above-mentioned stock index of the two cities fell 98 points to close at 1871.16 points; the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index fell 53 points to close at 6658.51 points, ending the current session

Transactions of the last week of the month.

Comparing the two cities, the trend of Shenzhen stock market is stronger than that of Shanghai stock market.

Moreover, the daily K-line and weekly K-line of the two cities' market are all in a downward position.

Among them, the Shanghai Composite was under counter pressure from the 60-day moving average, and last Friday began to break through the 30-day moving average; while the Shenzhen Composite Component Index is still about 300 points away from the 30-day moving average.

It is worth mentioning that last Thursday, stimulated by the central bank's interest rate cut on the 26th, the market opened higher, but "the river ends in the east" ended with a lower K-line.

On the last trading day of this week, the two cities opened lower and moved lower following the inertia of the previous trading day, shrinking and hitting the bottom, leaving a 2-point low opening gap that has not been filled. The market trend is weak, and the market is in the form of a relay of decline.

Next Monday, if the news is relatively calm, there will technically be a process of breaking through the 30-day moving average. Only in this way can panic chips be made.

(2) Analysis of the reasons for the market shock and decline: The reason why the market in the two cities has gone out of the downward trend is mainly because of the rebound that started in the past two weeks. After the continuous sharp rebound in the previous market for more than a week, most stocks in the two cities have accumulated

The increase has reached more than 30%.

As the rebound and rise continues, the focus of the early market correction shifts downward, instantly transforming into real lower-end profit orders. These profit orders will accumulate more and more as the stock index rises.

Short-term individual stock sectors have accumulated a considerable amount of profit taking. It is these extremely large number of profit taking chips that, once poured out, will become the biggest killer that blocks the rise of the market and forces it to turn downward.

Among them, there are a lot of profit-making orders that need to be digested, which can be seen from the fact that the recent leading varieties in the market have entered a period of profit-taking.

Technical analysis shows that after the short-term stock index has continued to rise sharply, there is a technical requirement to adjust and clean up the floating code, and stock index fluctuations are inevitable during the day.

However, the market will generally show a trend of shock and momentum, with the bottom gradually rising and then rising and falling back.

The trading volume of the two cities in the past ten days is 1.5 times that of the previous ten days, and long funds have not been withdrawn.

Short-term decline, medium-term optimism has become the main tone of the recent stock market operation.

Even if the market correction is in place, it will still linger at the bottom for many days to accumulate upward momentum.

Judging from the current market situation, the differences between long and short are increasing, and bulls and bears coexist at the same time. However, in the market under high prices, it is always easier for the short side to take advantage.

As the market adjustment time prolongs, the market's long-term energy has been greatly consumed, and market investment confidence has begun to become cautious again.

The market volume can shrink significantly. Although this shows that the market has a strong reluctance to sell, the market in the two cities is still under the suppression of the forces of the short side. Many moving averages are arranged downward. The market is obviously unfavorable to the bulls and all the long opportunities are lost.

It may be difficult to improve.

As far as the current market conditions are concerned, amid the recent turbulence of the stock index, the expected benefits of the market have been delayed in materializing, causing market investment confidence to become cautious again. Market volume has begun to shrink significantly. Since the market lacks the momentum to continue to rise, it has no choice but to retreat.

One step to gather momentum and organize.

Amid the turmoil in the stock index, large and small companies are more determined to reduce their holdings.

According to the changes in shareholdings of the company's major shareholders announced in November, from the beginning of the month to November 24, the total number of major shareholders reduced their holdings to 281 million shares, with a market value of 2.256 billion yuan.

The number of shares reduced in October was 165 million shares, with a market value of approximately 1.077 billion yuan. In comparison, the number of shares reduced in November was 70% higher than the previous month, and the market value of reduced shares was more than double that of the previous month.

In the rebound in November, the motivation for large and small non-profit companies to take advantage of the rebound to significantly reduce their holdings increased significantly.

The non-issues, large and small, that plague the market have not been fundamentally resolved, and market confidence is difficult to effectively restore. It is inevitable that the market will go back and forth in the process of building a bottom.

(3) Forecast of market outlook: After the stock index fluctuated for about a week, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is currently running its 30-day moving average again.

In the market outlook, the market will start a new round of correction to regain upward momentum.

However, the stock market will still maintain strong fluctuations. The range of fluctuations will range from the high point of 1812 points at the bottom of the market decline ten days ago (the bottom point is higher than the original lowest point) to the 60 moving average of 2040 points.

In this case, even if the market falls back to the bottom, it will still have to consolidate at the bottom for many days to consolidate the bottom to accumulate momentum for another upward attack. In this way, the next upward shock can start.

Even when the market is oscillating and falling, the stock prices of those rotating sectors and those of individual stocks that have oversold and compensated for their gains will still be turbulent and emerge in endlessly, making it dizzying to see.

(4) Short-term operation suggestions are given: When the GDP growth rate falls, the performance of listed companies in the fourth quarter declines, and the stock market will fluctuate at the mid-term bottom for a long time, retail investors must be more cautious in stock market operations and need to take high-level measures respectively.

The operation techniques are to sell at one point, cover positions in an appropriate amount or increase positions by selecting stocks, increase selling operations and reduce buying operations in an appropriate amount.

Even if you add to your position, you should still choose strong stocks with policy support, or stocks that are oversold at low prices, have little cumulative growth, and have room to make up for gains in the future, as well as stocks with a price-to-earnings ratio of less than ten times and stocks that have

Big funds accumulate long positions in individual stocks to wait for individual stocks to rise, but do not blindly chase the rise at high levels.

Stock investors who added to their positions and bought light positions during the correction do not have to rush to liquidate their positions.