Since 20 16, the increase of pension has been decreasing year by year. From 10% in 20 16 years to ~2020, with an adjustment range of 5% and 4% in 202 1 year. According to this trend, the pension adjustment in 2023 will either remain unchanged or decline. If the amplitude remains the same, it is 4%; If it falls, the high probability will be that, in fact, the determination of the pension adjustment range is not a simple numerical problem, and the following five factors should be comprehensively referred to:
First, social wage growth.
According to the figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the per capita disposable income of the national residents in 2022 was 36,883 yuan, an increase over the previous year. The wage income is 20,590 yuan, with an increase of src = "/feed/c 8177f3e6709c93d3126afcd43866d7d0054d1.JPEG @ f _ auto? Token = c588921d5213da152db8f34d7d412ed5 "/> Compared with last year's situation, this year is indeed much worse. In 20021year, the per capita disposable income of Chinese residents was 35 128 yuan, a nominal increase over the previous year, with wage income increasing second and prices rising.
There are tens of millions of commodities, and the price increases are different. There are generally three indexes to measure prices, namely, consumer price index, retail price index and industrial product ex-factory price index. Generally speaking, the consumer price index is the basis for measuring the retired elderly.
In 20021year, the national consumer price index rose only one year compared with the same period of last year. It is mentioned in the Social Insurance Law that the basic old-age insurance benefits should be improved in a timely manner according to the average social wage increase and price increase.
Generally speaking, the growth level of pension should exceed the price increase.
Third, the level of pensions.
The level of pension also limits the level of pension adjustment. After all, the higher the pension level, the more money will be increased in the same proportion, and the more pension funds will be spent.
In 2004, our per capita pension level was only 7 14 yuan. After 10 years of growth, the per capita pension level of enterprise retirees in 202 1 year is 2987 yuan, and the growth of 4% in 2022 will exceed 3 100 yuan.
Fourth, the income and expenditure of the endowment insurance fund.
You can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear. If there is no pension fund, who will bear the growing pension?
In recent years, the income and expenditure scale of China's endowment insurance fund has become larger and larger. In 20021year, the income of employees' basic old-age insurance fund was 60,455.5 billion yuan, and the expenditure was 5,648/kloc-0.0 billion yuan, and the accumulated balance was only 5,257.4 billion yuan, which was less than one year's expenditure.
In 2022, China also implemented the policy of delaying the payment of endowment insurance premiums, which will also put pressure on endowment insurance funds. But overall, it will be returned in 2023, and the pressure is not great.
At present, the National Social Security Fund Council also manages trillions of social security fund rights. In addition, 65,438+00% of the shares of state-owned enterprises have been allocated to the social security fund, and with the support of financial subsidies, pensions can still be paid in full and on time.
Fifth, the trend of aging.
The most shocking thing about this year's population is that in 2022, the population of China experienced negative growth. In that year, the number of newborns was 9.56 million, the number of deaths was1.046,5438+0.000, and the total population decreased by 850,000.
In recent years, China will enter the stage of rapid aging. The baby boom from 65438 to 0962 will soon be 60 years old, which will be the trend in the next decade. Therefore, in 2022, the population over 60 years old in China will reach 280.04 million, accounting for 202 1. At that time, the population over 60 in China was only 267.36 million, which was a great pressure on the total population of China. No wonder it will promote delayed retirement.
Based on the analysis of the above five factors, the probability that the pension adjustment level will exceed 4% in 2023 is very small, and it is not easy to keep it at 4%. However, it is indeed possible to drop to around. But in any case, the pension growth will continue to increase at the level of the previous pension, and the state will also take care of people with lower pension levels, so life will definitely be guaranteed and peace of mind will be good.