Since July this year, various localities have successively announced pension adjustment plans. By the end of July, all localities had accounted for and reissued the pensions that had risen since 1 month. Since August, retirees' pensions have been paid according to improved standards, and their monthly income has increased. While enjoying the joy of pension adjustment, everyone began to look forward to the pension adjustment in 2023, because since 2005, China's employee pension has achieved a continuous growth of 18 years, and it has become a habit for retirees to look forward to adjusting the pension every year. So, how much can the pension increase in 2023? If it goes up by 3.5%, how much can everyone go up? We continue to look down.

First, how much can pensions increase in 2023?

Since 2005, China's employee pension has been rising continuously 18 years. Looking back at the annual increase, it basically echoes the level and speed of China's economic development. In the early stage, the economy developed rapidly, and the increase of pension was high, reaching 10%. In recent years, the economic development has made steady progress. Due to the epidemic, the pension increase has also decreased year by year, from 5% in 2065 to 4.5% in 438+08 to 4.5% in 2022. In fact, it is still too early to analyze how much pensions will rise next year, but some signals have been released.

First, the income and expenditure of pension funds are guaranteed and can support pension adjustment. According to the data of Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, at the end of September, the annual income and expenditure scale of the national basic endowment insurance fund reached 12.6 trillion yuan, and the accumulated balance exceeded 6 trillion yuan. The fund is generally stable, with overall income exceeding expenditure, and the number of participants continues to increase. In addition, the personal pension system as a supplement to the basic old-age insurance was also launched in September this year. In addition, from September 1 2022, the basic old-age insurance for enterprise employees was officially implemented nationwide. Therefore, local pensions are guaranteed to be paid in full and on time through mutual assistance. According to the principle of living within our capabilities and living within our means, pensions will probably continue to rise. Second, the performance of economic development, average wage increase of employees and price increase is also optimistic, and they are all in a state of growth. Therefore, there are indications that the pensions of retirees will continue to be adjusted in 2023.

As for how much it can increase, judging from the current income and expenditure of pension funds, the aging population and the pension level, it is expected that the increase will continue to decline, and the probability of a decrease of 0.5 percentage points is greater. It is estimated that the pension will increase by about 3.5% next year.

Second, if it goes up by 3.5%, how much can everyone go up?

According to the data of Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, it can be inferred that after the pension adjustment this year, the per capita pension is expected to rise to about 3,500 yuan. If it rises by 3.5% next year, the per capita pension will increase by about 1.22 yuan. The average pension level of enterprise retirees is low. Before this year's adjustment, the per capita monthly pension was 2987 yuan. After 4% adjustment this year, the current per capita pension level has reached about 3 100 yuan. If it increases by 3.5% next year, the per capita pension can be increased by about 1 10 yuan. How much each retiree can increase depends on the specific adjustment plan and personal location, payment, basic pension level, age and other factors.

Pension adjustment adopts three ways: quota adjustment, hook adjustment and tilt adjustment. If the increase of pension next year is reduced from 4% this year to 3.5%, then the standards of various adjustment methods will also be reduced or adjusted. Let's take Hebei Province as an example to give you a calculation. How much can each retiree increase?

First look at the adjustment plan. Hebei's quota adjustment this year will increase 46 yuan per person per month, and it is expected to drop to 43 yuan next year; As for the adjustment of payment period, the unified unit price will be adopted this year, and the payment period will increase by 1.22 yuan every year, and it is expected to decrease to 1. 12 yuan next year; In terms of basic pension adjustment, Hebei Province will increase the basic pension by 1.09% in September 2022 this year, and it is expected to remain unchanged next year; For the adjustment of old age, 20 yuan will be increased at the age of 70, 30 yuan at the age of 75 and 40 yuan at the age of 80. It is expected to remain unchanged next year; In terms of the inclination of hard and remote areas, Hebei Province has increased 15 yuan for the first-class areas, 20 yuan for the second-class areas and 25 yuan for the third-class areas this year. It is expected to remain unchanged next year.

Suppose Lao Li of Hebei Province is 69 years old next year, with a payment period of 35 years and a basic pension of 4,280 yuan, and does not belong to retirees in hard and remote areas. Then, Lao Li will increase the 43 yuan in the quota adjustment next year, the linked payment period will be adjusted by 35× 1. 12=39.2 yuan, and the linked basic pension will be adjusted by 4280× 1.09%=46.65 yuan. Generally speaking, it can increase 128.85 yuan, an increase of 3%. Because there is no tilt adjustment for the elderly and hard and remote areas, the overall increase is not high, lower than the overall increase of 3.5%.

To sum up, there is a high probability that pensions will continue to rise in 2023, and it is expected that the increase will continue to fall by 0.5 percentage points, with an increase of about 3.5%. How much each retiree can increase depends on the specific adjustment plan and personal location, payment, basic pension level, age and other factors.