Judging from the types of lifting the ban, the wave of lifting the ban in July mainly came from the IPO.
From the perspective of industry distribution, Industrial Securities data shows that semiconductors, rail transit equipment, general equipment, batteries, and medical devices are among the top, reaching 84.86 billion yuan, 35.2 billion yuan, 22.96 billion yuan, 22.62 billion yuan, and 265.438 billion yuan respectively;
The market value of rail transit equipment, other electronic, general equipment, aviation equipment and environmental protection equipment accounts for a high proportion of the free circulation market value, which are 1 17.8%, 90. 1%, 63%, 46.8% and 40.3% respectively.
From the perspective of specific stocks, Zhongtai Securities pointed out that there are 7 stocks with a market value exceeding10 billion, and the top three are Qiqi Technology, Zhongwei Company and China Hao Tong; There are only 10 shares whose share of the total share capital is more than 50%, and the top three are Huaxing Yuanchuang, Hangke Technology and Nanwei Medicine.
From a fundamental point of view, the data of Zheshang Securities shows that in 2022, the expected profit growth rate of the company that lifted the ban by Dafa increased significantly, which was significantly higher than the growth rate of 202 1 return to the mother's net profit; The science and technology innovation board company that lifted the ban on "small non-"expects a slight increase in the growth rate of net profit.
It is worth mentioning that analysts believe that although the P/E ratio of companies that lifted the ban in science and technology innovation board in July is not low, the valuation quantile is at the bottom of history.
What is the impact of lifting the ban in July?
Based on the research of many institutions, although the peak period of lifting the ban is often accompanied by a corresponding increase in the scale of reduction, it may have a short-term impact on asset prices from the perspective of funds, but it is still optimistic about the medium and long-term trend of science and technology innovation board.
Most analysts "take history as a mirror", combined with the stock price performance after the centralized lifting of the ban on science and technology innovation boards in the past two years, draw the conclusion that the short-term market is prone to fluctuations.
For example, Industrial Securities said that from the past, the centralized lifting of the ban had a more obvious impact on the rhythm of the stock price trend of the science and technology innovation board in July, but it was mainly dominated by emotional factors, and the stock price showed the characteristics of rapid rebound after a sharp drop;
At the level of individual stocks, the characteristics are basically the same. Compared with non-lifted shares, science and technology innovation board's lifted shares suffered a more obvious impact in July, but the rebound was also stronger.
In the medium and long term, Industrial Securities believes that with the lifting of the ban on a large number of restricted shares, the increase in the number of tradable shares is expected to further enhance the trading activity of the science and technology innovation board, and at the same time, it is expected to enhance the willingness of institutional investors such as Public Offering of Fund and Lu Gutong to increase allocation.
It is worth mentioning that at the beginning of the month, some institutions shouted that "this year's GEM is similar to 20 12", which aroused market concern.
Zhongtai Securities also mentioned the performance of GEM when analyzing the market after the lifting of the ban in science and technology innovation board. He pointed out that after three years of smooth operation, the proportion of circulating market value has gradually increased, and the emotional interference of important shareholders' expected reduction has gradually subsided. 20 13, driven by fundamentals and industrial policies, the growth enterprise market began to enter an independent bull market.
On the whole, analysts believe that as overseas disturbances gradually subside and the domestic focus returns from short-term "steady growth" and "risk prevention" to long-term "independent and high-quality development", Kechuang is expected to become the leader of a new round of upward cycle. If science and technology innovation board's share price fluctuates before and after the lifting of the ban window in July, it may become an opportunity for bottom allocation and medium-and long-term layout.
Zheshang Securities also gave a similar view in its report on the 24th. The new growth reversal has just begun, and the main push of science and technology is just around the corner. There are three driving forces behind this:
First, as far as the macro background is concerned, the economy is heading for a weak recovery, and emerging growth is dominant;
Second, at the meso level, the earnings season is about to start, and semiconductors, national defense, digital economy (industrial software, smart cars), specialization and innovation are expected to relay, and the growth opportunities are brilliant;
Third, in July, the lifting of the ban on science and technology innovation board was mainly based on "big non-lifting the ban", accounting for 80%. Referring to the experience of GEM, after the lifting of the ban, the increase has been increasing within 30 natural days. Although the lifting of the ban on "Xiaofei" has an impact, it has been adjusted in advance in June-April, and more than 260 companies have no pressure to lift the ban on "Xiaofei" this year.
As for the specific direction, Industrial Securities reported on the 29th that in the second half of the year, the main line of the market will further focus on scientific and technological innovation represented by the "new semi-army", and it is suggested to lay out a high-prosperity growth track along the two main lines of "certainty" and "high flexibility":
First, the main line of "strong certainty+high prosperity", including photovoltaic (components, inverters and silicon chips), wind power (upstream materials and complete machines), military industry (structural parts and new materials), UHV (power transmission and transformation equipment and upstream materials), semiconductors (equipment and materials) and 5G (optical modules and optical cables);
The second is the main line of "greater flexibility+high prosperity", the layout of new energy vehicles (lithium batteries, complete vehicles and parts) and intelligent driving (intelligent cockpit and decision execution).