Semiconductors set off a wave of daily limit.

Stimulated by the news that Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Company has copied TSMC, on November 15th, the A-share Wind Semiconductor Select Index rose by more than 7%, and there was a wave of daily limit for individual stocks, including Juchen, Chuangyao Technology, Zhuo Shengwei (3782), Xin Pengwei, Shengbang (3661) and Lin Weina and Weir (6351).

U.S. semiconductor index entered a technical bull market

Why did the semiconductor sector suddenly break out? Zhang Wentian, the fund manager of Baoying Fund, said that the main reasons are as follows: 1. The market expects that the third quarter of this year will be the worst stage of the fundamentals and performance of related companies, and the follow-up industrial chain is expected to gradually usher in repair from the perspective of the inflection point of inventory; 2. Recently, hot spots in the A-share sector have rotated, and the institutional positions of semiconductors are relatively small, and the signs of institutional funds covering positions are obvious; 3. The news of Buffett's increase in holding TSMC, a leading foundry company, is catalytic.

since the beginning of this year, affected by the weak downstream consumption, the overall prosperity of the semiconductor industry has been poor, and the semiconductor sector has continued to fall into adjustment. As of the close of 15th, the Semiconductor Select Index still fell by 23.15% during the year, and nearly 4 concept stocks still fell by more than 2%. The stock prices of many concept stocks such as Weir, Huiding Technology (6316) and Xinhai Technology halved.

Not only A-shares, but also the global semiconductor industry has fallen into a cold winter, and its share price has dropped sharply. For example, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen by nearly 5% since the beginning of this year, and the share prices of semiconductor giants such as NVIDIA, TSMC and AMD have all been halved during the year.

however, the share price of semiconductor companies turned around a month ago. The share price of U.S. semiconductor companies took the lead in rebounding. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 23.35% in the past month, and entered a technical bull market. Major constituent stocks bottomed out one after another. Nearly half of the constituent stocks rose by more than 2% in the past month, among which Ram Research, ASML, Applied Materials and NVIDIA rose by 52.4%, 47.76%, 44.62% and 37.7% respectively.

The share of semiconductor funds increased against the market

Affected by the surge in the semiconductor sector, on November 15th, the OTC funds of heavy semiconductor and index funds tracking the chip industry rose collectively, such as chip ETF, chip 5ETF and chip leader ETF, which rose by 7.19%, 7.1% and 6.53% respectively.

among the OTC funds, the net value of active funds such as Taixin Small and Medium-sized Select, Nuoan Growth (327), China Merchants Advantage Enterprise and Galaxy Innovation Growth of Chongcang Semiconductor all increased by more than 5% every day.

however, the overall performance of semiconductor theme funds is poor, with most funds losing more than 2% during the year.

The data shows that the attitude of fund investors towards semiconductor theme funds is declining and buying more.

according to p>Wind data, as of November 15th, 222, the shares of six semiconductor-themed ETFs have increased by 1.183 billion shares in the past month, among which the shares of Guotai CES semiconductor chip ETF, Guolian 'an CSI Quanzhi semiconductor ETF and Huaxia CSI semiconductor chip ETF have increased by 652 million, 622 million and 329 million respectively.

among passive funds, the latest scale of Guotai CES semiconductor chip ETF, Guolian' an CSI all-index semiconductor ETF and Huaxia CSI semiconductor chip ETF has exceeded 1 billion yuan, which are 11.253 billion yuan, 12.228 billion yuan and 17.798 billion yuan respectively.

in September this year, the first batch of ETFs mainly investing in science and technology innovation board chips were officially approved. On September 3th, Huaan SSE science and technology innovation board Chip ETF and Harvest SSE science and technology innovation board Chip ETF were successfully issued and listed, which continued to bring incremental funds to the semiconductor sector.

judging from the share of OTC semiconductor active funds, as of the end of the third quarter, Cai Songsong's share of Nuoan Growth in the third quarter increased by 2.3 billion shares, Kong Xuebing's stable strategy of Jinxin and the preferred share of Jinxin industry increased by 27 million shares and 84 million shares respectively, and the shares of Taixin's small and medium-sized selection, enterprises with investment advantages and Galaxy's innovative growth all increased.

These areas are expected to usher in the valuation repair market

The enthusiasm of fund investors to add semiconductor theme funds is high, which is inseparable from the long-term investment opportunities contained in the semiconductor industry.

Kong Xuebing, the fund manager of Jinxin Fund, recently said in an interview with China, a brokerage firm, that China has the largest application market of semiconductors in the world, and the annual total import of semiconductors even exceeds crude oil. China's leap from a big manufacturing country to a powerful manufacturing country needs strong semiconductor industry support, which contains long-term investment opportunities, both in terms of efficiency improvement and safety control.

However, after years of development, the industry position of domestic semiconductor companies is constantly changing, and the stock price performance of related companies will continue to differentiate. Kong Xuebing pointed out that the domestic semiconductor industry has superimposed the inevitable cyclical fluctuations and the growth opportunities created by domestic substitution. The division of labor in the industry has become more and more detailed, and the industrial chain has basically achieved full coverage. From the overall lack of core last year to the structural shortage this year, the accumulated inventory in some fields is too large, and there is a staged surplus. The difference in prosperity in each sub-sector is very obvious, which is manifested in the differentiation of stock prices. For example, the prosperity of some consumer chips has declined, and the share price has fallen sharply. However, the small leaders in a few sub-sectors have seized the opportunity of domestic substitution by virtue of forward-looking business layout and continuous R&D accumulation, and their business performance and market share have improved significantly. In this year's market environment of the overall downturn in the industry, the share price of related companies has obvious relative returns.

From a fundamental point of view, Zhang Wentian, the fund manager of Baoying Fund, believes that the semiconductor boom field has entered the destocking stage since the fourth quarter of this year, and the inventory pressure of chip design companies has gradually eased. Now the semiconductor boom target has entered the bottom grinding process from the downward stage, and it is expected that there will be a turning point in performance and profitability in the second quarter of next year.

in terms of stock price, short-term trading and expected factors are often earlier than the profit turning point, just like the bottom process of the last semiconductor cycle (219Q1-219Q3), and the market also comes before the profit turning point. However, the decline of semiconductor design this year is generally more than 5%. Standing at the current point in time, it is necessary to maintain the preliminary judgment that the semiconductor stock price is in the relative bottom area.

what areas of the semiconductor industry are the institutions optimistic about? From the medium-term perspective, Zhang Wentian, the fund manager of Baoying Fund, believes that the track or target with certain alpha logic, as well as the target with a large decline in the previous stock price and a certain alpha logic of the company's products are expected to usher in the valuation repair market.

Open source securities said that the capital expenditure of wafer factories is high, and the autonomy of domestic semiconductor materials and equipment is accelerating. The proportion of wafer manufacturing capacity in Chinese mainland is still low, while the domestic semiconductor market demand is relatively high in the world, so there is still much room for improvement compared with the demand.

Kong Xuebing is more optimistic about the long-term investment opportunities brought by the acceleration of domestic substitution and the increase of market share of excellent companies. Domestic substitution links need to rely on continuous R&D accumulation and the coordination of industrial chain, from point to line and then to surface, to achieve a breakthrough in key core technologies from to 1. The semiconductor field where domestic substitution is expected to accelerate is mainly concentrated in the previous link of wafer manufacturing. Consumer chips and power semiconductors, which are greatly affected by the macro economy, are currently in the stage of destocking, and the most difficult moment of marginal impact has passed, and there is a certain room for valuation repair in the future. However, in the long run, these categories may be subject to high permeability and intensified competition, and the valuation level may gradually move closer to consumer electronics, which is not suitable for using the semiconductor valuation framework.