In January 2021, the General Office of the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Establishing a National Real Estate Investment Trust Fund (REITs) Pilot Project Library in the Infrastructure Sector". The implementation of the pilot project for public offering of infrastructure REITs will It has a huge impact on the construction of China's capital market. Although the current pilot is not open to commercial real estate assets, the basic asset types may be expanded in the future. Looking to the future, it can be predicted that commercial real estate will gradually be changed by the financialization and securitization of asset investment. Revitalizing existing projects through financial innovation, optimizing structure, and reducing costs have become very important directions in the asset-light model.
Talking about the asset-light market environment, Mr. Zhang Gang said that data can speak for itself, and shared that Blu-ray Culture and Business Travel has adopted the National Bureau of Statistics, relevant big data, listed company announcements, corporate official websites, public information, etc. , review the current status of the light asset market.
·In the era of inventory, the market size is huge
"From the supply side, we have calculated the area of ??commercial property construction started, completed area and growth rate from 2005 to 2020. In the past 15 years, The cumulative area of ??commercial property construction is 3.67 billion, and the cumulative area of ??completion is 2 billion; in the past 10 years, the average growth rate of new commercial property construction area is 6.49%, and the average growth rate of completed area is 6.47%; the supply side supports the continuous supply of commercial properties.”
"On the sales side, in the past 15 years, the sales area of ??commercial properties has accumulated to 1.68 billion. In the past five years, the growth rate of commercial property sales area has slowed down and has entered negative growth since 2018. In 2019, the sales area growth rate was - 14.9%; while the average area for sale of commercial properties is 180 million. The growth rate of sales area has slowed down, and the difficulty of selling commercial properties has increased. At the same time, the proportion of holding and building has increased. ”
The difference between the supply side and the sales side. It has created a commercial property stock of over 4 billion. Its huge scale and quantity have made it clear that the industry is changing from incremental to stock. At the same time, commercial property management services have also ushered in a new market. In the words of Mr. Zhang Gang, " The 'spring' of asset-light commercial real estate has arrived."
·Competition has intensified, and companies involved have increased but are scattered
"Among the top 500 property service companies, 279 have deployed commercial property management. Services account for 75.8%; however, the management area is only 738 million, accounting for less than 20% of the commercial property volume, of which nearly 90% are in second- and third-tier cities. ”
“At the same time, the top 50 commercial real estate companies are commercial. The area under operation and management is 220 million, accounting for less than 7% of the commercial property market. The scale to be managed is huge. The market presents a situation of scattered commercial operation and management scale and low industry concentration. ”
·Market opportunities. Aiming at gaps to create differentiation
According to statistics, as of the end of September 2020, 29 companies (with light asset output business and a total area of ????100,000 under management) had light asset projects under management, totaling *** 287 (opening time until 2023).
“Analyzing these light asset projects, we found that they have obvious characteristics in layout area and volume. In terms of layout area, non-first-tier cities are the main battlefield for light asset competition, mainly concentrated in the second and third tiers. Cities, accounting for nearly 70%; among them, shopping mall light asset projects are concentrated in economically developed areas, with South China and East China accounting for more than 50%; in terms of volume, light asset projects with RMB 50,000 to RMB 200,000 account for 85%, and competition is fierce , while light-asset projects of less than 50,000 square meters account for only 13%. ”
·Capital is optimistic, and the dual capabilities of asset management + business management are tested
In Mr. Zhang Gang’s opinion. , there are three dimensions of asset-light operations in the market, the first is real estate development-based companies, the second is property services-based companies, and the third is the "back wave" in the commercial real estate field - capital-driven of enterprises.
“Competition in these three dimensions has its own focus, but it will all intensify. At the same time, with the advent of the dual-mode era of quasi-REITs and REITs, the capital market will be more optimistic about the commercial real estate field and will be more optimistic about light asset management. The dual test of the company's asset management capabilities and business management capabilities is about to come."
Blu-ray Culture, Business and Tourism's asset-light business output is centered on marketization, focusing on "internal value support and external value creation" and directly targeting business. The real estate industry suffers from double stagnation. Under the pressure of the black swan of the 2020 epidemic, it also bucked the trend and expanded nearly 100 light asset projects.
To have such a huge competitive advantage in the market, Mr. Zhang Gang said: "Horizontally, that is, business management capabilities, we span eight major categories and have formed a benchmark product line; vertically, that is, asset management capabilities, we have integrated asset management and have complete asset management capabilities and experience; at the same time, we are also at the forefront of the industry in creating the fourth dimension, that is, digital space. Capabilities constitute the unique competitiveness of Blu-ray Culture and Business Travel.