Source: Hexun.com165438+1On the afternoon of October 26th, the People's Bank of China announced that the one-year RMB deposit and loan benchmark interest rate of financial institutions would be lowered by 1.08 percentage points from October 27th, 2008, and the benchmark interest rates of other term grades would be adjusted accordingly. From 65438+February 5, 2008, ICBC (60 1398), Agricultural Bank, Bank of China (60 1988), China Construction Bank (60 1939) and Bank of Communications (606544) will be downgraded.
This is the fourth time the bank has cut interest rates this year. What impact does this interest rate cut have on the wealth management product market? What about your investment after the interest rate cut? He Xun. Com interviewed experts from all sides to help you answer.
Stock: Zhang Xiang: The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to reach 2 100.
He Xun stock news
On the afternoon of 26th, the People's Bank of China announced a rate cut. From October 27th, 2008/kloc-0, the benchmark interest rate for one-year RMB deposits and loans of financial institutions will be lowered by 1.08 percentage points, and from February 5th, 2008, China Industrial and Commercial Bank will be lowered (60 1398, share bar). How will this affect the market? How will the banking and real estate sectors be interpreted? He Xun shares connected Mr. Zhang Xiang, the strategist of Guodu Securities, for the first time to solve the doubts for investors in real time.
Zhang Xiang told He Xun. Com believes that the interest rate cut exceeded expectations and is of great significance. It was 27 o'clock before, but many neighboring countries dropped by 100, indicating that the attitude of the central bank has changed. The previous fiscal policy also exceeded expectations, and this monetary policy is complementary to it, which is self-evident for economic development.
Judging from the recent disk, Zhang Xiang talked to Hexun.com about his views. He believes that the hot spots in the early stage of this round of rebound have gradually faded, and today's interest rate cut will break this downturn and the market will have a strong rebound trend; Recently, the stock market is in a negative vacuum period, with frequent positives. With such strong news in the case of a weak callback, this round of rebound may reach 2 100 points. The market trend tomorrow and Thursday may be directly higher, not lower, and it will be a strong rebound.
In terms of sectors, Zhang Xiang said that the news has just come out and industry researchers are doing further in-depth research and analysis; Judging from the current situation, a sharp interest rate cut is good for the real estate sector; As the deposit interest rate has also been lowered, the negative impact on banks has been reduced; Generally speaking, the impact of this interest rate cut is very positive.
Funds: interest rate cuts have a direct impact on fixed-income funds.
He Xun Fund News
165438+1On October 26th, the central bank announced that the benchmark interest rates for one-year RMB deposits and loans of financial institutions would be lowered by 1.08 percentage points, and the benchmark interest rates for other term grades would be adjusted accordingly. At the same time, the central bank's refinancing and rediscount rates will be lowered.
He Xun Fund Channel first connected Jiang Saichun, chief analyst of Desheng Fund Research Center. He said that this interest rate cut is equivalent to the sum of the past four interest rate cuts, which is very strong and has a certain boosting effect on market confidence, and the market will respond in the short term.
He also said that the interest rate cut is an integral part of a series of policy combination punches of the central bank, which is getting stronger and stronger, but in the long run, the impact on the stock market is limited. For funds, the impact of interest rate cuts on equity funds is more indirect, while the impact on fixed-income funds is more direct.
Bonds: The bond market will skyrocket.
He Xun news
165438+1On October 26th, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the benchmark interest rate of RMB deposits and loans and the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions: starting from the next day, the benchmark interest rate of one-year RMB deposits and loans of financial institutions will be lowered by 1.08 percentage points respectively, and the benchmark interest rates of other maturities will be adjusted accordingly. At the same time, the central bank's refinancing and rediscount rates will be lowered.
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (60 1398), Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China (60 1988) (60 1988) and China Construction Bank (60 1988) have been lowered since February 5, 2008. Share bar) (60 1328, share bar), the RMB deposit reserve ratio of large deposit-taking financial institutions such as Postal Savings Bank 1 percentage point, and the RMB deposit reserve ratio of small and medium-sized deposit-taking financial institutions was lowered by 2 percentage points. At the same time, we will continue to implement preferential deposit reserve ratio for Wenchuan earthquake-stricken areas and rural financial institutions.
In this regard, Li Huaiding, an analyst at Everbright Securities, even said "I didn't expect it!" He said that the rate cut far exceeds expectations, which is a major positive, and the bond market will skyrocket.
Li Huaiding analyzed, first of all, the expectation of several interest rate cuts before overdraft has basically been reasonably digested, which means that interest rate cuts have eliminated the previous overdraft pressure.
Secondly, reducing the reserve ratio is conducive to the improvement of funds, so the bond market will enter a reasonable upward track.
Li Huaiding said that the previous expectation was that 54 basis points were certain and 8 1 basis point was possible, but 108 basis point was unimaginable.
He said that the future bond market will enter a reasonable upside space, so investors are advised to actively buy, but low-credit bonds should be avoided.
"I have a potential concern", Li Huaiding finally said that the previous 7.4-8.0% judgment may be a bit optimistic, and the previous 7.0% concern may be a reasonable level. This sharp decline indicates that the economic decline may be too fast. The trend of the bond market will become more uncertain in the second half of next year.
Futures: It is expected that the futures market will end its recent consolidation.
He Xun futures news
165438+1On October 26th, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the benchmark interest rate of RMB deposits and loans and the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions: starting from the next day, the benchmark interest rate of one-year RMB deposits and loans of financial institutions will be lowered by 1.08 percentage points respectively, and the benchmark interest rates of other maturities will be adjusted accordingly. At the same time, the central bank's refinancing and rediscount rates will be lowered.
From 65438+February 5, 2008, ICBC (60 1398), Agricultural Bank, Bank of China (60 1988), China Construction Bank (60 1939) and Bank of Communications (606544) will be downgraded. At the same time, we will continue to implement preferential deposit reserve ratio for Wenchuan earthquake-stricken areas and rural financial institutions.
In view of the impact of interest rate cuts on the recent trend of the futures market, Xu Jinggang, chief trainer of Jinghua Mid-term, told He Xun. Com believes that the central bank continues to cut interest rates and deposit reserve ratio, indicating that the macro-environment of the market is still very severe. Although the interest rate cut market has already had certain expectations, this time the intensity has exceeded the market expectations, and this adjustment to the money market will certainly bring some impact to the futures market. Recently, the futures market has fluctuated, and the market rebound needs the cooperation of certain fundamentals. It is possible that with this interest rate adjustment, all varieties will end the current cowhide market and get out of the consolidation.
Mortgage: the monthly payment is reduced 15% or can be repaid in advance.
He Xun stock news
On the afternoon of 26th, the People's Bank of China announced a rate cut. From October 27th, 2008/kloc-0, the benchmark interest rate for one-year RMB deposits and loans of financial institutions will be lowered by 1.08 percentage points, and from February 5th, 2008, China Industrial and Commercial Bank will be lowered (60 1398, share bar). How will this affect the real estate industry? He Xun shares the first time to connect a well-known brokerage real estate industry analysts, real-time solution for investors.
The impact of this interest rate cut on the real estate sector is mainly reflected in two aspects:
1 is good for developers. The asset-liability ratio of real estate developers is generally high, probably above 70%. For enterprises that borrow a lot, reducing the loan interest rate means reducing the financial cost, thus reducing the cost and undoubtedly increasing the profit.
In addition, the reduction of the bank deposit reserve ratio will release more liquidity, and the possibility of developers getting more funds will also increase.
2. It is also good for buyers. Two interest rate cuts this year can reduce the monthly repayment 15% or more. This has obviously promoted the recovery of new and second-hand housing transactions.
Judging from the disk of real estate stocks, the recent trend of real estate stocks is strong, and interest rate cuts are expected. As the interest rate cut exceeds expectations, the strength of real estate stocks will continue.
Repay the loan in advance after cutting interest rates. Before repaying the mortgage, it is best to calculate an account, because not all prepayment can save money. For example, if the repayment period is over half and the principal in the monthly repayment amount is greater than the interest, then the significance of early repayment is not great.
Bank financing may become a "meager profit" product.
Xinlang finance
Successive interest rate cuts have led to a continuous decline in the yield of short-term wealth management products of banks that were popular before. Recently, the related wealth management products issued by banks have an obvious downward trend in income. At present, the yield of bank wealth management products with a maturity of 1-2 months is about 0.5 percentage points lower than before.
Although the liquidity is good, most of the wealth management products currently on the market are invested in credit and bill assets, so the impact of interest rate cuts has led to a continuous decline in their yields. In the long run, the prospect of such products is not very optimistic. Insiders said that the existence of interest rate cuts is expected to make bank wealth management products in a low-yield state for some time to come. As long as the central bank cuts interest rates, the income of these products will inevitably be lowered.
Gold: interest rate cuts are slightly beneficial to gold prices.
He Xun Gold News
The People's Bank of China has decided to reduce the benchmark interest rate for one-year RMB deposits and loans of financial institutions by 1 1.08 percentage points from October 27th, 2008, and adjust the benchmark interest rates for deposits and loans of other maturities accordingly. At the same time, the central bank's refinancing and rediscount rates will be lowered. Liu, manager of Fuyuan Gold Trading Department, told the reporter that the interest rate adjustment was not large and the adjustment time was timely. We can see the determination of our government to actively respond to this global financial crisis. Recently, China's economic indicators also show that the financial crisis is still grim. Reducing interest rates again is a further measure taken by China financial decision makers after paying close attention to market dynamics, and it is also to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. This measure is conducive to strengthening liquidity in the banking system, promoting the steady growth of money and credit, giving full play to the positive role of monetary policy in supporting economic growth, stimulating residents' consumption and expanding domestic demand. Liu believes that the interest rate cut has no obvious impact on the gold market in China, but it is good news for the securities market and the real estate market. The interest rate cut may lead to a slight decline in the RMB/USD exchange rate in the offshore market, which may support the gold price in China. At the same time, interest rate cuts have certain positive significance for avoiding deflation risks and promoting moderate inflation, and are slightly beneficial to the price of RMB gold.