Debon Securities' February fund strategy report believes that cautious optimism is the main tone for fund companies to judge the market trend in 2008, and it is possible to judge the fund by more band operation ideas.
Jiangnan Securities pointed out that in the case of controlling high inflation in China, there has been another snowstorm, and the inflation trend is grim. Administrative means are constantly replacing the hands of the market, and the market is adjusting at any time. Under this uncertainty, the stock market with high valuation is also fluctuating accordingly. In the short term, it is unlikely that the stock market will improve significantly in the first quarter, and the net value of partial stock funds mainly investing in stocks will also fluctuate.
Essence Securities believes that from the long-term trend, stocks in coal, electric power, transportation, steel, building materials, chemicals (APIs), aviation and financial industries have a clear upward trend. Therefore, investors are advised to appropriately increase the fund positions of heavy stocks in these industries. In addition, from the perspective of investment style, funds with heavy positions in second-and third-tier blue-chip stocks deserve attention. Closed-end funds are favored by institutions.
All institutions are optimistic about closed-end funds. Six closed-end funds will expire in 2008, two of which have entered the process of closure, and the arbitrage opportunities of the remaining four funds will still be concerned by the market. Debon Securities said that it can focus on Ji Jinkexiang and Ji Jinkehui. In addition, combined with the analysis of the long-term investment value of closed-end funds, Debon Securities' recommended portfolio for closed-end funds is Taihe, Yi Tong, Jinghong, Kexiang and Ruifu Enterprising.
Low-risk funds and closed-end funds with high dividends have become the first choice in the near future. Jiangnan Securities pointed out that for closed-end funds, it is recommended to pay attention to funds with high dividend announcements such as Fenghe, Taihe, Tianyuan and Kaiyuan. After dividends are excluded, their discount rate will reach 35%.
Essence Securities believes that the dividend market in the first quarter of 2008 is expected to be staged. Therefore, closed-end funds with high discount rate and high residual distributable income will be favored by the market. The combination they recommend is:
Long-term: Ruifu enterprising, Taihe. Short-term: Pratt & Whitney, Jin Xin, Pufeng, Yuyang and Yi Tong.
The decline has brought open buying opportunities.
Although there are still some uncertainties in the market, the upcoming performance market is still worth looking forward to. For open-end funds, Debon Securities believes that this month's open-end fund investment ideas are cautiously optimistic. The downward adjustment of the market has created conditions for strategic intervention.
The funds that Debon Securities suggested to pay attention to are: China Market Selection, Morgan China Advantage, Xingye Trend, Morgan Alpha, Guangfa Jufeng, Huitianfu Advantage Growth, Huaan Manulife, Guangfa Small-cap Growth, Harvest Steady and Guangfa Steady Growth.
At the same time, Essence Securities reported in February that the stock market had a sharp correction and the stock-related funds performed poorly, but they all outperformed the broader market, and the decline brought better buying opportunities.
For investors who hold partial stock funds, it is a wise choice to continue holding them at present.
In February 2008, Essence Securities advised investors to pay attention to the following fund portfolios:
Radical type: Huaxia Superior Growth, Morgan Stanley Growth Pioneer, Huaxia SSE 50ETF, Guo Futianyi Value, Everbright Prudential Quantification.
Steady type: Harvest Growth Income, Huitianfu Advantage Selection, Xingye Trend Investment, E Fund Steady Growth, South Steady Growth, E Fund Strategic Growth No.2. ..
Conservative: Huabao Xingye Baokang Bond, and CITIC is stable and beneficial.
Those who can withstand high risks can choose index funds such as 50ETF and dividend ETF; Low-risk enthusiasts can choose to invest in bond funds, money market funds and closed-end funds with high dividends. At the same time, the fund to be issued is worth investing, and low positions will bring good returns. In addition, due to the pursuit of safe-haven funds, the bond market has been rising recently, but there will be a wave of adjustment in the bond market without a clear termination of the interest rate hike channel, so bond funds also have adjustment risks in the near future. Note: Harvest Bond, Southern Baoyuan.
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How to choose a fixed investment fund?
Fund investors are often faced with two choices: to put all their money into the fund at one time, or to invest regularly with a fixed amount step by step?
For office workers who have a fixed income every month, after deducting the necessary living expenses every month, the remaining funds may wish to participate in the plan of fixed investment of the fund, which can not only cultivate long-term savings habits, but also accumulate a fortune for themselves. Which is better, one-time investment or regular fixed investment? Note the following points:
One-time investment strategy
The premise for investors to adopt a one-off investment strategy is that they believe that the market will rise more and fall less.
For example, A and B each have 6,543,800 yuan invested in the fund. A bought an open-end fund at one time, and B invested 2000 yuan into the fund every month within 5 months. During this period, the net value of fund shares continued to rise, so B's cash was not enough to buy the same amount of fund shares as A's, so by the end of the fifth month, A's fund shares were more and its income was higher than B's, but if the net value of fund shares continued to fall during this period, B could buy more fund shares, so by the end of the fifth month, B's investment income was higher than A's.
The net value of the fund rose.
Decline in fund net value
Of course, these are two extreme assumptions. During this period, it is common for the net value of fund units to fluctuate up and down. Because the amount of funds purchased by B every month is fixed, when the net value rises, the number of purchases is relatively small; Buy more when the net value falls. In the fifth month, who holds more fund shares depends on the degree of net value fluctuation.
Fund net value fluctuation
Regular fixed investment
One advantage of regular fixed investment is that when the time is good, you can buy more fund units. In this way, you don't have to pay attention to the short-term fluctuations of the market-whether it is up or down, this 2000 yuan must be used to buy funds. This is discipline.
In order to avoid sentimentality and hearsay, regular fixed investment is a steady investment method, especially for indecisive investors. One-off investment is suitable when the market continues to rise, or you believe that you will not buy or sell at the wrong time.
On the one hand, regular fixed investment can reduce risks. When the net fund value falls, even if the number of fund units you hold remains the same, your net investment assets will fall. Because the fixed investment is absorbed in stages, it not only allows you to buy more funds at a lower price when the net value falls, but also reduces the loss of investments already held.
On the other hand, the desirability of regular investment lies in "discipline". Investors tend to chase the past performance of the fund, buy after the fund performs well, and sell when the fund's yield drops. This is actually a band operation selected according to market timing. Regular fixed investment avoids this band operation and makes you a disciplined investor, thus avoiding investment mistakes caused by blind pursuit of hot funds.
How to choose a fixed investment fund?
Some investors believe that the biggest advantage of fixed investment is stability. When this method is used to invest in aggressive or active funds, such as stock funds and active allocation funds, it can often achieve good returns. Under the expectation of increasing market amplitude in 2008, stock funds and active allocation funds have higher positions, and their net income fluctuates greatly, which makes the fixed investment more stable. It is worth noting that index funds can also be used as an option for investors to make fixed investment, but ETF funds cannot participate in fixed investment. For ordinary investors with limited funds, such funds can only be bought and sold in the secondary market. In addition, the number of fixed investment funds should be combined with the number of funds in the portfolio. If the fund's investment method is a combination of regular fixed investment and one-time investment, the number of fixed investment funds should not be too much. In the specific operation, investors also need to check the website of the fund company or consult relevant customer service personnel to determine whether their fund has the function of fixed investment.
What should investors do for one-time investment and regular investment? It depends on how long you want to get a return, and whether you care about maximizing the return on investment or minimizing the risk.
The shorter the expected return period, the more likely it is to cause losses by choosing a one-time investment. For funds with unstable performance and large fluctuations in net value, fixed investment may be more suitable. You can also combine these two methods, invest a part of the funds at one time, and then arrange a fixed monthly investment, so as to be eclectic and learn from each other's strengths.
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