1. Gold standard
In 1919, when World War I broke out, Britain stopped implementing the gold standard.
In p>1925, after World War I, Britain hoped to embark on the road of recovery and restore the gold standard system with the help of the gold standard system.
in p>1931, the American economic crisis of 1929 triggered the global economic depression, and Britain ended the gold standard.
in p>1933, American president Roosevelt announced that the free trading and export of gold were prohibited, and asked the people to hand over all their gold to the bank. The United States abandoned the gold standard.
2. The "Bretton Woods System"
In 1944, when World War II was drawing to a close, representatives of 44 countries gathered in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, USA, and some participating countries signed the Bretton Woods Agreement the following year.
The core of the international economic system changed from gold to US dollar, and the US dollar at that time was supported by 75% of the world's gold reserves. The United States holds more than $2 billion in gold, but less than $1 billion in debt, which can be described as a heyday.
the official price of $35 an ounce of gold lasted until 1967. At that time, because the United States was mired in the Vietnam War, the huge fiscal deficit repeatedly hit the credibility of the dollar, so countries sold their dollars and snapped up gold. With the deepening of the Vietnam War, the deterioration of the financial situation in the United States finally detonated the dollar crisis.
3. In March 1968, the global gold rush led to a record number of transactions in the London gold market. The United States could no longer maintain the official price of gold, and finally had to announce that it would give up the market supply of $35 per ounce. Since then, the price of gold has officially entered a free float.
Seven years later, due to the deepening of the US dollar crisis, western countries announced that they would abandon the fixed exchange rate system and implement the floating exchange rate system. So far, the Bretton Woods monetary system completely collapsed and gold embarked on the course of non-monetization reform.
but it didn't last long. By 196, the super-strong position of the American economy had been eroded, and the current assets held by foreigners in that year had increased from $8 billion in 195 to $2 billion. That is to say, if all of them were converted into gold, the gold reserve in the United States would bottom out.
4. In 1967, France withdrew from the gold pool.
de gaulle's self-interest in taking the side of speculators. France has the most gold in the world except the United States. If it claims to raise the gold per ounce to 7 dollars, France will make a lot of money.
As a result, the U.S. made unlimited use of dollars to make up the balance of payments deficit, and the dollars flooded, which exported domestic inflation and aggravated the worldwide inflation. When a large amount of gold in the United States was lost, the dollar as the material basis of international reserves was greatly weakened. Finally, its fixed connection with gold was cut off, and the law of paper money circulation came into play. The dollar is bound to depreciate relative to gold, and the official price of 35 dollars for an ounce of gold is already vulnerable.
5. On November 18th, 1967, the pound depreciated for the second time after the war.
On March 17th, 1968, the "Gold Pool" disintegrated.
on August 8, 1969, the franc depreciated by 11.11%. ?
On August 15th, 1971, President Nixon of the United States made a televised speech, closing the golden window and stopping governments or central banks from holding dollars to exchange gold. The dollar broke free from the prison of gold and floated freely in the foreign exchange market. At that time, the effect of this move also oppressed West Germany and Japan to realize currency appreciation, so as to improve the balance of payments of the United States
6. Next, the price of gold was as sturm und drang as a wild horse.
In p>1972, the price of gold in the London market rose from $46 to $64 per ounce.
in p>1973, the price of gold exceeded $1.
from p>1974 to 1977, the price of gold fluctuated between $13 and $18.
in p>1978, crude oil soared to $3 a barrel, and gold price rose to $244.
in p>1979, the price of gold rose to $5. The Statue of Liberty on the cover of Businessweek, published on March 12 this year, was in tears, with the title "The Decline of America". In October, the inflation rate in the United States broke through 12%, and gold became a powerful weapon against inflation.
7. 198 was the year with the biggest ups and downs in the world gold market. After the Reagan administration came to power, it implemented the high interest rate policy, which made the exchange rate of the US dollar firm and dealt a great blow to gold investors.
The first gold bull market in contemporary times has come to an end, lasting for 12 years. ? During the 12 years when the price of gold rose from $35 in 1968 to $85 in 198, there was a 3% interest rate every year.
in p>198, the investment in gold reached $1,6 billion, which exceeded the market value of American stocks of only $1,4 billion. In 1959, the investment in gold was only one-fifth of the market value of American stocks.
The first gold bull market in modern times has come to an end, which lasted for 12 years.
Unfortunately, in such a spectacular gold bull market, the real winners are the sellers who supply gold, such as gold miners. Just like the big bull market in various markets, seeing more speculators may not make a lot of money. The price of gold has risen from $35 to $85. How imaginative it is! On the contrary, there are far more people chasing up at $85 than buying and holding at $4.
Bernstein cited such an example. In 198, the American Alaska Pension Fund entered the market and bought a ton of gold at a price of $691. At the end of the same year, it bought another ton at a price of $575. In March 1983, it sold the gold at a price of $414.
The first gold bull market in modern times has come to an end, which lasted for 12 years.
Extended information:
To determine whether the general trend of the gold market is upward or downward, fundamental analysis is often needed. There are many factors that affect the trend of gold prices, and investors need to analyze them one by one to determine the main factors. The following will list the factors that have great influence on the international gold price trend.
1. Gold price in US dollars
Because the international gold price is denominated in US dollars, the relationship between the gold price trend and the US dollar exchange rate trend has become very close. Historical data show that the two are often in reverse interaction. The dollar rose and gold fell; The dollar fell, while gold rose.
2. Gold price crude oil
There is also a close relationship between the international crude oil price and the gold market. As we all know, fighting inflation is a major function of gold, and the international crude oil price is closely related to the inflation level. Therefore, the international gold price and the international crude oil price have a positive interactive relationship.
3. Commodity market
With the economic rise of BRIC countries, the demand for non-ferrous metals and other commodities is increasing day by day. Coupled with the speculation of international hedge funds, the prices of international commodities such as non-ferrous metals and precious metals have risen strongly since 21, and the high prices have aroused the concern of global economic circles.
4. Stock market
As can be seen from historical data, under normal circumstances, the trend of gold price is contrary to the economic situation and the trend of stocks. If the stock market is currently in a bull market, the price of stocks and funds will rise, which will take away a lot of gold investment, which means that the price of gold is likely to fall; If the current stock market is a bear market and the prices of stocks and funds are weak, investors will naturally leave and choose other investment channels. They may choose gold investment, which may push up the price of gold. This change reflects investors' expectations of economic prospects. If investors expect good economic development prospects and the stock market will flourish, they will naturally invest more funds in the stock market, and the funds in the gold market will inevitably be affected.
5. The price of gold and the seasonal supply and demand of the gold spot market
The supply and demand relationship is the basis of the market, and the gold price is closely related to the supply and demand relationship of the international gold spot market. The gold spot market often has a strong seasonal supply and demand law. The first half of the year is usually the off-season of gold spot consumption. According to the data in recent years, the bottom of the gold price generally appears in the second quarter, but stimulated by consumption in developed countries in Europe and America, the spot demand for gold will gradually reach a peak in the third quarter, which makes the gold price continue to rise.
6. Political turmoil
The international political situation and wars between countries often affect the price of gold. When there is political turmoil or war, economic development will be hit negatively, which will lead to inflation and people will turn their attention to gold investment. At this time, the price of gold may rise sharply.
7. Central Banks
Central banks around the world are the largest holders of gold. If central banks start to sell gold, the price of gold will fall in a short time.
8. financial crisis
when the financial crisis comes, people will feel that it is not safe to deposit money in the bank, so a lot of money will flock to other investment channels, such as buying gold. When the financial system of developed countries such as the United States is unstable, the price of gold is likely to rise. The global financial crisis triggered by the American subprime mortgage crisis in 27 caused a sharp rise in the price of gold.
9. Inflation
If the price of a country is relatively stable, it means that its purchasing power of currency is also stable. If a country experiences inflation, the purchasing power of its currency will decline. At this time, market funds will turn to the gold market. Thereby pushing up the price of gold.
Reference:
Baidu Encyclopedia-Gold Price