if the economy is depressed, it will be too hot.

Nobody likes economic depression, which means more unemployment and lower income. However, the law of the economic cycle is difficult to be transferred by human will. If there is a peak, there will be a trough, so the government always tries to smooth this curve. This generation can always hear the words of macro-control after working, but the economic heat is still unabated, the pressure of energy conservation and emission reduction is increasing, environmental pollution is serious in some places, and house prices and stock prices are hanging high. China's economy will still be good for several years, but who can guarantee that it will not be depressed after overheating? For this generation, they must face all this and bear all this.

I'm not afraid of buying a house, but I'm afraid of buying a house.

Of course, I feel uneasy without a house wandering in the city. Besides, the house price is increasing every day, and it may double again in two years. The speed of wage growth is far behind the speed of rising house prices. If you don't bite your teeth, you may not have a house to live in this life. But is it safe to buy a house? It's good to be a house slave. I'm afraid I bought an unaffordable house at the beginning. When the house price fell in the economic depression, even the monthly payment was not paid, and the house was forcibly auctioned off, which was much more terrible than not being able to afford a house.

I'm not afraid of working, but I'm afraid of having a job.

It is no news that the employment situation is grim, and this situation will not be alleviated or even aggravated in the short term. Even if people without jobs own a house, they are just abandoned by a city, which is even more terrible. But aren't you afraid of having a job? People in the workplace generally have skill panic, so they must constantly update their knowledge and skills to keep up with the changes of the times. Life-long employment system has nothing to do with this generation. The adjustment of industrial structure, poor management of enterprises and problems of their own abilities may all bring unemployment worries. People will be under increasing pressure in the workplace.

I'm not afraid of getting married, even after I get married.

It's nice to have a home. Wandering in the city without help will increase the sense of insecurity, and it's more efficient for husband and wife to manage their finances together. Marriage is a besieged city. With the development of economy and the change of social concept, it will be "easier to go out of the city than to enter the city" in the future. In fact, people in the "city" are not afraid that divorce is the biggest act of breaking money, and the divorce rate is rising. The pace of life is getting faster and faster, there are more and more temptations from the outside world, and the fear of marriage and the insecurity after marriage are increasing.

don't be afraid of children, even if you have children.

The aging society is coming, and how to provide for the aged in this generation will probably become a worldwide problem. Dink's family lives a chic life, but they are also worried about being lonely when they are old. So what if you have children? It is unrealistic to expect to raise children for old age, and with the increasingly fierce social competition, children have become the main "cost center" of families. The education of children needs a lot of money, and the input-output ratio is not optimistic. Children can bring joy and pressure to a family.

this generation is afraid of everything! But on the other hand, "fear" is not necessarily a bad thing, and risks and opportunities are always accompanied. The recession gives you room to rise, and when you fall, you win the opportunity to enter the market. The pressure of work can make you more professional and professional, and the lack of social security may make you cherish your family more. After all, this generation can have more choices and face more opportunities. The Internet has created a fairer and more open environment for them. As long as they have the ability, they can fully embrace this boiling age. This generation has sufficient reasons to "love".

So, what will those born in 75-85 face in the next 3 years? How do their "fear" and "love" turn into the motivation to win in the end? The next part may help you answer these questions-win for 3 years! Is it possible? Who knows what will happen in 3 years? Yes, things change quickly, and things have changed a lot in 3 years-

3 years ago, who could have predicted that a great economic reform that shocked the world was brewing, and the great changes in material wealth and ideology and culture it brought would make people stunned 3 years ago.

As a result, some enviable employees of state-owned enterprises who ate from the same pot and enjoyed various benefits were laid off. Once some people who were "forced" to buy stocks in order to complete organizational tasks became the first nouveau riche in the capital market; Once some "second-hand dealers" and people who were considered to be doing nothing are now entrepreneurs ...

Change means opportunities. If you foresee the great development of the market economy long ago, you may be willing to meet the challenges of the market instead of relying on the government for everything; If you had predicted the prosperity of the capital market long ago, you might have taken care of your assets actively, instead of getting drunk today. Have we seriously thought about what the future will be like when we feel that fate has made people? What kind of planning should I make for my life?

For those born in 1975-85, they will soon shoulder the heavy responsibility of China's economic development, and the next 3 years will also be the golden 3 years of their lives. This generation has grown up in the tide of reform, and also bears the costs and pains brought by reform. They have been branded as market economy since childhood, but they often feel lost and confused when they become the main force to promote the development of market economy. There is no doubt that this generation will win the next 3 years, and China will also win the world for 3 years.

Qian Jing hopes to predict some possible situations in China's economic and social operation in the next 3 years, and also make a life plan for those born in 75-85. Maybe you think this kind of planning is meaningless. After all, life is full of too many variables, but the choices you need to make now, such as buying a house, career development, starting a business, etc., may greatly affect your next 3 years. Maybe you doubt the reliability of this prediction. After all, too many things will happen in 3 years. We don't deny this. We may not give you a definite result, but we will tell you a correct attitude and method to face the future.

financial management is a kind of planning, and life needs planning.

memories of growing up and their characteristics

this summer, there are two popular movies related to the childhood memories of people born in 75-85. One is Transformers, and the other is Doraemon and His Dinosaur. When young men and women flock to the cinema with their partners or even their children, they are more directed at transformers toys who once fell asleep and the robot cat who is naive and can always conjure up new things. They are not so much looking for a movie as looking for a memory.

This nostalgia is also pervasive on the Internet. Sometimes, this generation has thousands of posts recalling their childhood, and the followers continue to post their memories-besides Transformers and Robot Cats, there are also fairy tale kings, glass balls, Contra, Street Fighter 2, cats and mice, saint saint seiya, sixteen-year-old flower season, a small spoon of sour plum powder, bubble gum, three fresh noodles, calcium milk biscuits and Little Tiger ... < P It is really puzzling that a group of people who are still young are so moved by childhood memories now. However, it is not difficult to understand that this generation grew up together-

They were born in a relatively scarce era, but the material products gradually enriched with the economic reform, and the opening up to the outside world also brought a continuous impact on their spiritual world; They were born in an era of relative imprisonment. The enthusiasm of men to see Jin Yong and women to see Qiong Yao is usually hidden underground, and once the cage of thought is opened, it will fly higher and farther. They were born in a relatively monotonous era, and the TV media that accompanied them appeared and grew up initially output almost a single content. When there were more and more buttons on the remote control, the Internet flourished and they had more choices. Perhaps, it is precisely because of the lack, imprisonment and monotony that childhood memories have made this generation doubly cherish and moved.

This generation was born and raised with the reform and opening up, and has special feelings for money and the market: they longed for money in their childhood ignorance and knew the magic of money, but at that time they were still in an environment that was deeply alert to the commercial society. As they grow up, the commodity economy is developing and their ideas are changing, and they also begin to learn to think independently and create independently. But when they become the main force chasing money to create wealth, they gradually get tired of the ubiquitous business behavior. When the pressure on them is getting bigger and bigger, they miss the simple beauty of the period of relative material shortage.

The following is a passage from a post-8s netizen, which can also be regarded as a declaration issued by this generation:

I am an idealist in 1982.

The only child in the 198s had no brothers or sisters, and there was no shortage of materials when he was growing up, but it was not enough.

When we were young, chivalrous and heroic media edified us with love, compassion and sense of justice, which also made us uncomfortable with such despicable things as hypocrisy, affectation and flattery in the real world.

Although we have been growing up in the Party's propaganda and education, people in the 198s didn't believe in things that we had never experienced, which also taught us to doubt and not blindly follow, and yearn for fairness and freedom in an increasingly progressive environment.

Compared with the older generation, the Cultural Revolution didn't hurt or distort our young minds. Compared with people in the 199s, when there was no material abundance and materialistic desire, we cherished small happiness, which was a simple romantic childhood.

We are a kind generation, and now we have to make a living. Our time will come, and it will come soon. By then, hidden rules will be reduced, and immoral people will have no market.

After reading this ambitious declaration, we may feel some characteristics of this generation, which is consistent with the economic reform and opening up: they are realistic, but they are also a little idealistic; They are eager for wealth, but they are not completely money-oriented; They are not superstitious about authority, but they also have a little admiration for professional experts; They don't have firm beliefs, but they don't lack value recognition; They are influenced by western thoughts, but they also find that there are many dross in them; They are about to take on great responsibilities, but they are still afraid and uneasy about future changes.

People born in 75-85 are about to enter the golden age of their lives, and will also become the leading force to promote the economic development of China. What kind of environment are they in? What kind of future will it face? Where will their characteristics take China's economy? In turn, what impact will it bring to itself? If this generation wants to win the next 3 years, they must face and answer these questions.

For this reason, we need to explore the fear and love of this generation first-

The fear and love of this generation

When we are in primary school, we don't need money to go to college;

When we were in college, primary school was free.

before we can work, work is also assigned;

when we can work, we have to hit our heads and barely find a hungry job;

when we can't make money, the house is allocated;

when we can earn money, we find that we can't afford to buy a house.

when we don't enter the stock market, fools are making money;

when we rushed in, we found ourselves a fool;

This is a self-deprecating remark made by the newborn in the late 197s and 198s, which has aroused widespread concern. For those born in 1975-85 (the scope can be narrower), it is indeed in an embarrassing situation. They have caught up with the reform of housing commercialization and education industrialization, and experienced the expansion of university enrollment and this bizarre bull market. They have borne the cost of the reform, and before they can enjoy the benefits of the reform, they have been pushed to the forefront of the market tide. Faced with all kinds of risks and great changes that may occur in the next few decades, they will feel uneasy in their hearts-

Great Forecast for the Next 3 Years

It is almost impossible to predict what will happen in the next 3 years completely. Just as 3 years ago, who could have predicted that China's economy would undergo such great changes, 15 years ago, who could have predicted that the Internet would have such a profound impact on our lives. However, economic and social development also has laws to follow, and history is often repeated. We can't paint a clear picture of the next 3 years, but this doesn't prevent us from making predictions in advance on some issues-for example, when China's economy will usher in a depression, and what are the precursors for the stock market to turn from bull to bear. This does not affect our imagination to look forward to the next technological revolution and the changes in people's consumption patterns. Don't treat this prediction as a game. Successful people are often far-sighted. Only by seeing clearly the "potential" and using "skills" can this generation win the next 3 years.

1. How far is the economic depression from this generation?

Prediction and suggestion: China's economy will enter a relatively depressed period in the near future. Therefore, at this stage, you should reduce your debts as much as possible. For example, it is best to repay your mortgage in advance. We should pay close attention to the changes in economic indicators and people's willingness to consume around us, especially the latter is more intuitive. Once there are obvious signs of depression, properly sell all kinds of assets in your hands, such as real estate, some stocks, funds, etc. Then judge the bottom of the depression as much as possible and buy various assets in time.

for people born in 75-85 years, will they experience an economic depression during their career or mortgage in the next 2 to 3 years? The answer is almost yes. Economic cycle fluctuation is a normal state, and no region can avoid it. What we are concerned about now is when the depression will come and how deep it will be.

Of course, it is too difficult to make an accurate forecast of the economic trend, even the top economists can't make it. But at least you need to be alert to some signs, just like thinking about taking an umbrella when it gets cloudy. Next, we will give some signs of economic depression in the past two years, and it is up to you to judge whether it will turn into a real depression. For those born in 75-85, it is very important to grasp the economic cycle, so that we can formulate coping strategies as soon as possible.

sign 1: the investment cycle has come to an end, and the danger of overproduction is brewing in the high economic growth driven by investment demand.

China's economy is mainly driven by investment, so we must first analyze the changes of investment. The data shows that the growth rate of urban investment in the first four months of last year was 29.6%, and it has dropped to 25.5% in the first four months of this year. In the first quarter of this year, the investment in new projects was negative growth of 13.5%. This shows that the main driving force of China's economic growth-investment-is slowing down, and it is beginning to shift from promoting the growth of total demand to promoting the growth of total supply, thus brewing a crisis of overproduction.

The observation investment should mainly focus on the changes in the machinery and equipment manufacturing industry. Up to now, this investment cycle has basically ended the civil construction stage and entered the equipment installation stage. After the stage of equipment installation, commissioning and trial production is over, the investment project will be completed, and it will enter the qualitative change point of investment from demand to supply. If consumption and export cannot take the place of investment demand, the overproduction crisis will be inevitable. There are many statistics to support the investment cycle to enter the stage of equipment installation, and the shrinking external demand may accelerate the excess capacity.

sign 2: the real estate market overdraws the future spending power, the wealth effect brought by the stock market is weakening, and inflation actually reduces the purchasing power of wages.

in a mature economy like the United States, consumption expenditure is the most important indicator to judge the economic cycle. Although the situation in China is different, we must not ignore consumption.