At present, the risk-free interest rate represented by 10-year treasury bonds has been accelerating since the end of 20021. The current macroeconomic fundamentals and monetary policy environment will continue to benefit the bond market, and the yield of short-term government bonds is expected to continue to operate at a low level. However, in terms of annual time unit, it is difficult for the domestic bond market to rise continuously for more than three years, and the main logic behind it is that the domestic economy is more resilient. If the economy successfully bottoms out during the year, monetary policy will turn neutral with major overseas economies, and it is not excluded that the bond market will adjust accordingly.

In 20021year, the domestic credit bond market was divided, the credit risk continued to be released in an orderly manner, the high-rated credit spreads fell to a historical low, and the corresponding low-and medium-rated credit spreads remained at a high level. In 2022, with the introduction of the steady growth policy, the overall credit environment is expected to further improve, and investors' tolerance for credit risks is expected to increase slightly. Under the premise of steady economic recovery, the solvency and financing environment of low-and medium-rated issuers are expected to be repaired, and the corresponding credit spreads of low-and medium-rated issuers are expected to converge slightly.

Based on the judgment of macroeconomic operation and the rhythm of monetary policy, we are relatively more optimistic about the performance of the bond market in the first half of the year. In terms of investment strategy, it will be more inclined to maintain the standard duration, and at the same time, on the basis of adhering to the "high rating and short duration" of credit bond investment, it will explore investment opportunities with similar credit spreads.