The financial crisis was caused by some of the smartest people in the world. These people all have strong science backgrounds and are very good at mathematics and imagination. After they have eaten and have nothing to do, they start tinkering all day long to create something.

Financial derivatives are complex and difficult to understand. From a game theory perspective, many of these products are zero-sum game products. However, they have become valuable under the transformation of financial analysts. In recent years,

Warrant, which is booming in the Chinese stock market, and Zero Cost Collar and Accumulator (transliteration: I kill you later), which have recently surfaced due to huge losses, analyze from a philosophical perspective that their existence is reasonable. These financial derivatives

The existence of products that have been improved by financial engineering has a certain value from a certain perspective, but as Buffett said at the beginning of this century, "financial weapons of mass destruction", the market needs them, but only when they correctly perform their original design.

It is necessary under the premise of principles. For example, the functions of futures are mainly price discovery and hedging.

In response to the crisis, China faces four major problems: First, although China has introduced a four-trillion-yuan plan, including a series of "National Ten Measures", "Nine Financial Measures" and "National Thirty Measures", the key now is the 2009 special

In the first half of the year, can the macroeconomic policies driven and expanded by aggregate demand take effect quickly?

Judging from the data released in the first quarter, GDP growth rate was 6.1%, mainly due to the stimulus of 4 trillion investment.

Since there is already a lot of investment in the first quarter, if we want to maintain 8%, we must increase investment in the second half of the year, and the annual investment will definitely exceed 4 trillion.

Second, can structural adjustment be effectively integrated into this anti-crisis operation and can it be in place?

If it is not in place, it may not be difficult to boost aggregate demand and it can be increased, but in the end it will repeat the story of the past and still do menial work. China's manufacturing industry is still producing a large number of low value-added products in the past.

Whether China can introduce something clear about structural adjustment like Obama did and use structural adjustment as the main driving force to boost domestic demand is a key question.

Third, the problems that may arise in the China crisis.

The situation faced by China under its anti-crisis measures is exactly the opposite of that of the United States.

In the United States, the economic system affects the real economic sector. In China, it is due to external demand problems, problems with the new Labor Contract Law, and perhaps even problems with our macroeconomic policies before September 2008. In China, it is the real economic sector that has problems first, and the financial sector has problems first.

Except for the stock market, other sectors are in good condition.

Therefore, the problems encountered in China are opposite to those in the United States. The real economy may affect the financial system.

Fourth, the issue of enthusiasm of commercial banks.

Many years ago, China embarked on a major development drive in the western region, and later revitalized the old industrial base in the northeast.

The results of these two major strategies were very unsatisfactory. In fact, the responsibility does not lie with the central government. The central government is active and the local governments are also active. However, we must see the things behind these two major developments.

The five major banking systems of Industry, Agriculture, Bank of China, China Construction and Communications, which control the vast majority of monetary and financial resources in the country, rank the western region at the bottom in the internal rating, and classify many regions in the Northeast as credit-rated D and E-class regions.

Just invest in Jiangsu and Zhejiang.

Therefore, the key to China's expansion of domestic demand lies in how to get banks that control most of the monetary resources to take action.

With the introduction of the central government's policy to revitalize the old Northeast industrial base, a large amount of funds are bound to be invested in the Northeast. With the stimulation of funds, the stock market should have a good increase.

The global financial system is currently facing tremendous pressure. The subprime mortgage crisis that broke out in April 2007 has plunged the global economy into recession.

Citigroup believes that the global economy will enter a state of contraction in 2009.

The depth, scope and speed of the adjustment and recovery of the financial industry remain uncertain factors affecting the market.

"Even if the pace of economic contraction is likely to slow down in the second half of 2009, after the economy recovers as expected in 2010, the economic growth rate may still hover at a low level." Obviously, Citigroup is more pessimistic about the global economic situation.

Regarding the forecast of global economic growth and inflation rates, Citi believes that global GDP growth will be 0.5% in 2009 and return to 2.6% in 2010; global inflation will be 2.5% in 2009 and 2.6% in 2010.

Among them, the regions with negative GDP growth in 2009 were the United States, Europe, Japan, and Singapore.

China will still maintain its leading position in GDP growth rate in 2009. Citigroup Investment Research believes that not only is there no problem in maintaining the GDP growth rate of 8, but it will also be slightly higher, reaching 8.2%.

Huang Yiping, chief economist of Citi Asia Pacific, believes: "We believe that the Chinese government has the ability to achieve its target growth." He said, "The proportion of fiscal revenue and state-owned enterprise profits in GDP remains high, while most fixed asset investment and banks

Assets are still controlled by the state, which shows that despite decades of economic reform, the state's ability to promote economic growth has not been weakened. "Although China's GDP can maintain 8, corporate profit decline is inevitable, which means that GDP may have a soft landing.

, but corporate profits will only have a hard landing.

China encountered deflation twice in 1998-1999 and in 2002. The reasons for deflation were weak exports and overproduction.