Many customers have stopped production, and fewer people say that business is good.
Reprint an article from China Cement Network for reference:
Under the situation that the downward pressure on the economy is not decreasing, on the eve of National Day, the relevant departments airborne the National Day gift package, which mainly has three gifts:
First, mobilize public opinion to pay attention to the problems of 40 million bachelors and more than 200 million elderly people, which means that family planning will be fully liberalized soon, thus 1 will promote consumption, alleviate aging and promote real estate sales.
Second, the tone of anti-corruption has changed. Published the article "Anti-corruption in China enters the second half", arguing that anti-corruption will shift from whole-person anti-corruption to mechanism anti-corruption. The negative effects of anti-corruption on the economy have gradually turned into positive incentives. No worries, no worries. Officials will start working normally, spend normally and buy houses normally, which can be regarded as sharing worries for the country.
Third, under the two ministries and commissions, the down payment for the first suite was reduced from 30% to 25%, and the purchasing power was greatly improved, which was good for real estate and related industries.
It seems that supporting the economy depends on real estate, which is gradually becoming the helpless knowledge of policy makers. The goal is too high, but we still have to work hard to rejuvenate the country! So, what measures are needed to support real estate?
First, encourage childbearing, increase the young population and provide economic vitality.
Increasing the youth population is the only way to inherit the nation and the foundation of all revolutionary undertakings. An aging society is hardly dynamic, let alone growing. The so-called "mass entrepreneurship and innovation" is an idiotic dream! It can be seen that liberalizing the population policy and encouraging more healthy children have become a top priority related to the survival of the country and its international status. The Prime Minister of our neighbor Japan has just vowed to restore the fertility rate to above 1.8. At present, they are 1.4 respectively. What about Shanghai? It's already below 1.0, which is horrible! In the middle of Qing Dynasty, the population of China accounted for more than 30% of the world's population. In elementary school, we claimed to be a quarter. What about now? Only a little more than 15%. Compared with the world, our population has greatly decreased, perhaps less than one tenth of the newly born population!
Once correct but now wrong, the evil family planning policy has really turned to 180 degrees, and the interest groups that can be attached to a policy will still struggle and continue to punish the future of the Chinese nation for the employment and fines of their small groups. The crimes they committed will be nailed to the shame column of history.
From the adjustment of the family planning policy, we can see that the macro-control policy, even if 99% is correct, should be used with caution, because it is extremely difficult to recall the policy after its application period. Another example is the deposit reserve ratio. Because of the inflow of dollars, it has been adjusted from a few percent to dozens of percent. Now that the outflow of dollars is so tight, it is still difficult to reduce it. Why? Because the interest groups formed in this process need to drain the real economy with tight funds, they will not consider the interests of the country, nor will they listen to the instructions of the top leaders. At most, they will do what they want.
Public opinion should not be raped for long. It is hoped that the family planning policy will be adjusted in time, from birth control to encouragement. Only in this way can China's economic growth be meaningful.
The adjustment of family planning policy will bring about the growth of individual family population, which will lead to the improvement of demand; The pressure of life brought by the new population will urge us to work hard, thus improving the output of the whole society and promoting economic development; The expected demand for housing when children grow up will promote the sale of existing homes and stabilize the expectation of house prices, thus stabilizing the value of wealth. It can be seen that the liberalization of family planning is of great significance to the healthy development of the real estate industry.
Second, increase the desire to buy.
The story of the Bird's Nest tells us that birds love houses. Rats love to dig holes, which tells us that rats have loved houses for generations. Human love for real estate and land comes from heredity, not nurture.
"All over the world, it is the land of kings", which shows the supreme ruler's fanatical pursuit of land. Don't ordinary people have this dream pursuit? There must be! Because the genes are the same. Land finance has always been used by rulers and has become the economic basis and financial source of legal rule. Ordinary people are repeatedly used because of our possessiveness. We can't occupy the world and take up a little more private space. It's not too much! The so-called privatization can be regarded as hierarchical ownership to a certain extent, and I believe the ruling class will give it to us.
Human beings are born with the desire to own real estate, or to build or buy real estate. We need a house. In order to increase financial resources, the country needs specialized division of labor, so the real estate industry came into being. In order to accumulate the money needed to buy a house, we need to work hard, which will drive the production of all walks of life and bring overcapacity to all walks of life. In order to solve the problem of overcapacity, the state has implemented a proactive fiscal policy and a "steady" (slow depreciation) monetary policy to encourage residents to spend moderately in advance. Residents who consume in advance get so-called value-added benefits from backward residents, which greatly increases people's desire for subsequent purchases, so the economy can develop.
Greed is human nature;
199 1 or so, the per capita housing area in the United States is 27 square meters, now it has increased to 72 square meters, and then it has increased to 100 square meters. Why not? Why not increase it to 200 square meters?
Today, the biggest wish of young people in Hong Kong is to buy a house of their own.
I asked the elites I know privately, because of their work relationship at home (they usually own houses with a floor area of 100 square meters or more). Everyone wants to live in a house of several hundred square meters, and everyone wants to double it. How big a market is this?
It can be seen that it is not difficult to increase the desire to buy a house. What we need is to treat the real estate industry with a normal heart, not to demonize it.
The pillar position of the real estate industry is not to retreat if you want, although many people curse you. Just like National Day, many people get stuck in traffic jams and suffer a lot. Can you blame National Day? Blame yourself. Especially along the Yangtze River, from Wuhan to Shanghai, it will eventually become the largest metropolitan area in the world. If you want to buy a house, buy it.
There are two problems:
First of all, who will clean the big house? Answer: Robots, big houses will drive the development of smart homes and smart manufacturing, and eventually robots will do housework!
Secondly, where is the money for buying this big house? A: At the People's Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission. They have been walking slowly, and I believe they will continue to walk slowly until they walk too long.
Third, lower RRR, lower interest rate and lower down payment to improve purchasing power.
An important prerequisite for improving purchasing power is an appropriate monetary policy, and the important function of the People's Bank of China should be to maintain a stable monetary policy, realize a moderate wealth of money to the economy, and thus improve economic vitality. Unfortunately, in recent years, monetary policy has been steady and tight, which seems to be depressing RRR, but in fact it can't keep up with the speed of dollar outflow; It seems that the interest rate is being cut, but the excessive reserve ratio makes the actual cost of funds decline limited. Amitabha reduced the reserve ratio and the real interest rate to the world average. This characteristic of China is too harmful to the economy.
Credit governments to improve purchasing power are also being introduced one after another, and drip irrigation policies such as reserves are also being implemented. If it is reduced to 20%, it will be great for all property buyers, regardless of a set of two sets, regardless of residential sales! Our leaders are always afraid that too much water will drown fish, so there is no need to worry so much. Most of the fish were not drowned, but were killed by the bait on the hook under the leadership. The current forms of these lures are Internet++and so on.
Fortunately, in any case, when RRR cut interest rates, cut interest rates and made down payment, leaders finally worried that the economy would not be stable, although they still looked confident. If the economy doesn't pick up, it will fall three times! We have complete confidence in their ability!
Fourth, realize the transformation of real estate from pillar industry to wealth pillar.
Realizing the normal development of real estate industry and giving full play to the role of real estate pillar industry at this stage are important means to stabilize economic development at this stage. Otherwise, the standing board will be removed before the pig flies, and the consequences of economic collapse will be very serious. You can't take this board. Give pigs time to grow wings.
One day, the pig flew. Do we have to destroy that board? In fact, the concept of China people is not necessarily to develop vigorously when there are shortcomings, but to abandon it when there are surpluses. With the support of public opinion, policies are changeable, artificially expanding market fluctuations, resulting in greater wealth losses. We should consider changing our way of thinking, instead of going from the extreme left to the extreme right and being capricious. When real estate develops to a certain stage, it needs to change from wholesale production to customized production, that is, on-demand production, in order to maintain the stability of stock asset prices and realize the transformation of real estate industry from pillar industry to wealth pillar, which will greatly test the wisdom and determination of politicians.
Only when real estate is successfully transformed into a pillar of wealth can we be sure that the economic development speed is low, but we are lucky and happy; We can also be sure that the foundation for the development of new industries is solid and the mentality is balanced rather than impetuous. Amitabha!
Conclusion:
1, the economy officially started, and house prices entered an upward channel (excluding villages and towns), and the increase accelerated at the end of 20 16.
2. After the National Day, the real estate and cement stocks rose, with some shocks, and accelerated by 20 16 in the second half of the year.
3, cherish the last round of real estate opportunities, if there is still mass carnival, you should quit the rivers and lakes.
4. The descendants have their own descendants, as Zong said: "Take a step and look at it, and don't make long-term plans."