The black swan effect generally refers to the black swan event. The black swan event is a very unpredictable and unconventional event, which usually causes negative reactions or even subversion in the market chain. Generally speaking, the black swan event refers to an event that meets the following three characteristics: unexpected; Have a significant impact; Although it is unexpected, human nature urges us to make up reasons for it afterwards, which is more or less explained and predictable.

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Black swan exists in all fields, no matter financial market, business, economy or personal life, it can't escape its control. The concepts of "grey rhinoceros" and "black swan" complement each other. The "grey rhinoceros incident" is so common that people have become accustomed to it, while the "black swan incident" is extremely rare and unexpected.

There are three differences between the events of grey rhinoceros and black swan: first, black swan symbolizes events with small probability and great influence, while grey rhinoceros symbolizes potential crisis with large probability and great influence; Second, the black swan occurs directly in a short time, while the gray rhinoceros has certain external performance, and it will only erupt after accumulation; Third, the loss of black swan is limited, and the short-term loss of grey rhinoceros will be huge.

On 20 15 65438+ 10/9, the market suffered from the black swan event of margin financing and securities lending, the stock index fell sharply, the brokerage sector fell collectively, and the Growth Enterprise Market became an active sector on Monday, but it also showed a trend of ups and downs. In terms of sectors, small-cap drugs, low-priced drugs, delivery expectations and medical devices remained red-hot, and brokers, banks and funds led the market with heavy positions.

Regarding this weekend's black swan event of margin financing and securities lending, some active private investors in Shenzhen believe that this decline is only a rapid decline in the process of rising, and the decline will not be deep and the adjustment time will not be long. This week's possible adjustment will pass, just a repeat of the last bull market of 5.32, and will not change the upward trend.

For the market outlook, once there is a black swan, there will be panic in the market, the market callback is inevitable, and the inertia decline will continue. Investors can carry out band operation on individual stocks in their hands, especially the underlying stocks of margin financing and securities lending and the stocks with large increase in the previous period. It is suggested that investors with short positions wait and see, and it is not too late to enter the market before the stock index stabilizes tomorrow and the new share subscription funds are lifted.