Looking back on 20 14, a series of platforms and technologies represented by smart investment are regarded as subversive forces. At that time, the market thought that this would change people's investment and financial management behavior patterns and make financial consultants and offline wealth management institutions unemployed. Look, things have changed. Robots don't give up, people give up. Mr. Li lamented.
The first hurdle: lack of trust is regarded as "sales promotion"
"There is no universally recognized asset allocation model in China theoretical circle. Different platforms will have different algorithms and models, and its core configuration ability cannot be reflected in a short time. It is difficult to convince others that' my model is the best'. " An industry insider commented like this.
According to some industry insiders, there are three main types of enterprises entering smart investment in China at present: first, startup companies; The second is mutual gold company; The third is the traditional financial institution that finally entered the game.
In the intelligent investment algorithm, some financial institutions entrust external development, which leads some financial institutions to adopt homogenization strategy to invest in the same trading variety. With the development of smart investment business, this phenomenon will intensify.
At the same time, it is not uncommon to pay attention to the intelligent algorithm model because of programming errors and insufficient data utilization. The famous Oolong Finger Incident of Everbright Securities is an example.
2013 August16 June 1 1: 05, the Shanghai composite index suddenly rose by 5.96%, and all more than 50 heavyweights hit the daily limit. The main reason for the market change on that day was the massive purchase of self-operated accounts of Everbright Securities. After verification, there are design defects in the self-operated strategic trading system of Everbright Securities, resulting in huge orders after chain triggering. This incident has aroused great concern from all walks of life and has become the most serious trading mistake in China stock market for more than 20 years.
In addition, China's capital market has its particularity. Analysts believe that the China market is quite different from foreign markets, and the difficulty lies in how to find a series of indicators suitable for the local market, such as China PMI, scissors difference between M 1 and M2, PPI and CPI. In China, many things of orders of magnitude can affect the economic cycle more, and the results may be very different based on different variables.
Xiao Liu, a smart financial practitioner, told Jin Pingmei that the development of domestic Internet financial management is generally a process of imitation and localization of American counterparts. In the United States, smart investment consultants mainly provide users with two aspects of value. First, reduce management costs and replace expensive fund managers with machines; The second is to save taxes and fees. In China, everyone uses smart financial management by default to "sell" products to me, "lacking the foundation of trust."
In Xiao Liu's view, domestic intelligent financial management is only a concept now, with few participants and small investment. The industry lacks leaders and products that can define industry standards, and customer service needs to be further improved.
The second level: the product is highly homogenized.
An industry expert bluntly said, "The ecosystem of smart investment has not yet formed. First of all, from the type of wealth management products, in the mature capital market, smart investment products are mainly equity products such as stocks, but in the China market, a considerable number of products configured by smart investment are fixed income and investment targets, with the lowest risk and repurchase clauses; Secondly, the market's awareness and demand for smart investment has not been tapped, and the cost of obtaining customers is high. "
It is understood that taking Wealthfront, a typical representative of American smart investment platform, as an example, the assets selected by the platform include eleven categories: US stocks, overseas stocks, emerging market stocks, dividend stocks, US Treasury bonds, emerging market bonds, US inflation index securities, natural resources, real estate, corporate bonds, and municipal bonds. On the one hand, it is conducive to improving the degree of decentralization and reducing risks; On the other hand, having the characteristics of different assets can provide users with more portfolio choices and meet the needs of more risk-averse users.
In contrast, due to the immaturity of China's own financial market and the limitation of assets-side products, the products with different allocation theories are seriously homogenized.
In the view of another practitioner, Xiao Guo, American smart wealth management products embody a long-term investment concept. Domestic users are speculative and value investors are scarce. According to his observation, the United States has a wide range of asset allocation targets, but the method is very simple, which is suitable for long-term investment and not suitable for short-term investment. In the United States, 3-5 years is the medium term, and more than 65,438+00 years are considered as long-term investors. In China, three months to a year is considered a long time. These differences make this model infeasible in China.
Mishimatong: users, the cost of obtaining customers is high.
It is understood that at present, most intelligent investment and financial management platforms are aimed at the domestic middle class and wealth management users of1-500,000.
From the actual situation, high-net-worth individuals have a wide range of investment channels, and their personalized needs will be well served by large investment banks, high-end private wealth studios and other institutions; The financial needs of low-end users can already be met through various monetary funds.
In the eyes of many practitioners, the middle class has money, but lacks investment channels, and most of the money is still allocated to real estate. However, domestic financial institutions that provide quality services for this class are still in a blank state. Therefore, they think that smart investment products are promising.
Some investors have made such an estimate. The download volume of smart investment applications is basically within the order of 300,000, and the rough estimate of users is within 654.38+10,000, but it is particularly noteworthy that the cost and difficulty of acquiring users. Its acquisition cost is very high, so it must have better conversion rate and higher ARPU (average revenue per user) value.
According to the judgment of investors, smart investment will not be a high-flow application, but as long as the customer unit price can be maintained at a certain level, it can be steadily improved. If the per capita investment is 500,000 yuan, plus the management fee and the warehouse transfer fee, 500 million assets can be managed theoretically, and 1000 people can guarantee the drought and flood.
Optimism still dominates the market for the future prospects of the smart investment industry.
According to Casey Quirk's report, China's asset management industry will account for nearly half of the global net asset flow, and China is expected to become the second largest asset management market in the world in 20 19. It is estimated that by 2030, the asset management scale of China will exceed 17 trillion USD. The rapid growth in scale is mainly due to the surge in the number of individual investors, including retail customers and high-net-worth individuals. It is estimated that by 2030, the asset management scale from individual investors will account for half of the country.
Faced with such a huge and fast-growing wealth management market, many people in the industry believe that smart investment is still promising.