The impact of interest rate cuts on the main sectors of the stock market is as follows:
I. Real estate
The market generally believes that interest rate cuts are good for real estate stocks. Huatai Securities said not long ago that the real estate cycle in China has never ended, and the recent deflationary pressure will prompt the central bank to take more easing measures, which will lead to a faster expansion of the real estate bubble. Huatai Securities even believes that the highest price in the future will exceed everyone's imagination. In terms of investment opportunities, Huatai Securities said that it is firmly optimistic about the performance of real estate stocks and gives priority to Cinda Real Estate, OCT A, Poly Real Estate, First Venture, China Merchants Property, Nanjing Hi-Tech, Vanke A and Zhangjiang Hi-Tech. Special reminder of the investment opportunities of Cinda Real Estate and OCT.
The driving factors for the subsequent upward trend of real estate stock prices will mainly come from marginal improvement at the policy level (loose monetary policy and diluted regulatory policy). On the whole, the real estate market will show a pattern of "quantity and price rising together", and there should be no pressure of policy tightening in the future. In terms of investment strategy, pay attention to the following four stock selection ideas, 1, leading: Poly Real Estate, China Merchants Property, Vanke A and OCT A; 2. State-owned enterprise reform: gree real estate and Tian Jian Group; 3. Transformation of high-quality targets: Zhongtian Chengtou and Huaye Real Estate; 4. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei concept: happiness in China, development in Rong Sheng and development in Langfang.
However, it is worth noting that the income of the first-and second-tier property markets and the third-and fourth-tier property markets will be different. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, said that since the fourth quarter of last year, the first-and second-tier property markets have obviously stabilized and picked up, and the interest rate cut will amplify the favorable trend of the market, so it is very likely that the volume and price will rise together. However, because the absolute value of third-and fourth-tier stocks is too high, even if credit is stimulated, it is unlikely to be fully recovered.
Second, banks.
The impact of interest rate cuts on bank operations has two aspects: first, reverse the downward expectations of the economy and slow down systemic risks; Second, the interest margin has fallen and the profit margin has narrowed. From the perspective of funds, interest rate cuts will enhance the attractiveness of wealth management fund insurance, and deposit relocation will continue to deepen. In terms of interest rate marketization, the "triangle" equilibrium interest rate range of bank deposits will be further clarified, and the impact of deposit costs will be gradually put in place. Comprehensive analysis, the favorable factors are dominant, and the banking sector will restart the valuation and repair the market.
Compared with the broader market, the margin of safety of banking stocks is still sufficient (underperforming by 30%), which is worthy of layout in combination with the reform of state-owned enterprises in the future industry, the internationalization of RMB, and the comprehensive financial control platform. Continue to recommend Ningbo, Beijing and Bank of Communications, Xingye, China Everbright and Huaxia.
Third, non-bank finance.
As the main beneficiary of interest rate cuts and RRR cuts, the non-bank sector will usher in a rebound. For brokers, the dual policy of interest rate cuts and RRR cuts has exceeded expectations and continued to release liquidity. The market is worried that the policy will turn negative and the market is expected to return. Reducing interest rates is conducive to activating trading volume, reducing the financing cost of brokers and facilitating brokerage business. Brokers are in an upward development cycle with good cost performance. 1) high quality: capital market is the core area of reform, and brokerage stocks belong to blue chip+growth; 2) Low price: According to the performance of 15, the PE of large brokers is 15 times. The favorable policies of the industry continue: IPO registration system, T+0, individual stock options, asset securitization, capital account opening, state-owned enterprise reform, etc. , continue to be optimistic about 1) Steady performance: new big moves, Guo Xin, and the East; 2) Expectation of state-owned enterprise reform: Everbright and Xingye.
For insurance stocks, interest rate cuts and RRR cuts will help boost market morale. Interest rate cuts will expand the competitiveness of insurance products and wealth management products, which is conducive to insurance investment and continue to enjoy Davis' double click. 20 15 policies such as tax deferral, tax incentives for health insurance and liberalization of investment channels will be introduced one after another. Insurance is in a period of high security and good flexibility. As an insurance stock with leverage of 10 times, the current new business value is about 15 times, and the valuation will usher in the repair stage. Continue to recommend Xinhua, Ping An, Life Insurance and Pacific Insurance.
Fourth, non-ferrous metals
Reducing interest rates will help improve the performance and performance prospects of non-ferrous metals industries and companies. Reducing interest rates to ease the debt and capital pressure of non-ferrous metals industry. Non-ferrous metal industry is one of the representatives of heavy asset industry, with high asset-liability ratio. Lowering interest rate will reduce the capital cost and interest expense of industries and companies, and directly affect the profit level of companies and industries. In addition, interest rate cuts will boost non-ferrous demand and prospects. The interest rate cut will effectively stimulate investment, increase the market demand for real estate, stabilize and boost the market's expectation of economic prospects, thus increasing the demand for non-ferrous metals industry.
Commodities, especially non-ferrous metals, are mainly driven by two factors, one is the demand side of the real economy and the other is the expectation of liquidity. For commodities, especially non-ferrous metals, there are band pulse opportunities. In the rapid decline stage of PPI, it is difficult for non-ferrous metals to have a strong trend, but the expected RRR reduction will increase the pulse opportunities of non-ferrous plates, especially rare metals supported by emerging industries, and the frequency of band speculation of non-ferrous plates will increase.
Concept stocks of nonferrous metals: Tongling Nonferrous Metals, China Aluminum, Jiangxi Copper, Zhongjin Lingnan and Zinc.
Verb (abbreviation of verb) coal
In the interest rate reduction cycles of 20 12 in 2008 and 2012, the cumulative decreases of Qin Gang 5500 kcal thermal coal, Datong Nanjiao weak caking coal and Liulin No.4 coking coal were 34%, 22% and 48%, and 23%, 12% and 9% respectively. However, after the end of the interest rate cut cycle, coal prices gradually rose or basically stabilized. In 1 year after the interest rate cut cycle ended in 2008, the above three kinds of coal increased by 39%, 3% and 20% respectively, while in 12 year, the coal price continued to fall after the interest rate cut cycle ended, but the coal price of 5,500 kcal in Qin Gang basically stabilized. Recently, due to high inventory and sluggish demand, coal prices remain weak. It is expected that after the RRR cut, real estate and infrastructure investment sensitive to capital will rebound to support the demand of the coal industry.
Historically, the two interest rate cuts of 20 12 failed to change the downward trend of coal stocks, which basically bottomed out in 2008; China's economy may still face a situation similar to 20 12 in the future, and the overall inflation level will remain at a low level in the future, with the seasonal rebound of coal stocks, and the trend opportunities still need to wait.