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Why does quantitative trading always make no money?

Quantitative investment is mainly used in futures trading, ETF arbitrage, conditional stock selection, warrant arbitrage trading, etc.

Image source: Kenner Quantitative Investment

"Do you speculate in futures?"

"No, I earn hard-earned money, and you earn heartbeat money."

This is a conversation between a layman and a futures investor. Indeed, many participants in futures are jumpy because of its high risk and high return. However, the introduction of domestic quantitative transactions in recent years is gradually changing this situation.

Last Saturday, the only local futures company in Dongguan, the relevant investment institution of Hualian Futures Joint Quantitative Trading, held a quantitative trading strategy exchange meeting entitled "Quantitative Trading, Opening the Door to Wealth" in Dongguan. Contrary to the general investment report, the meeting was crowded. The conference room originally scheduled for more than 1 people finally crowded into nearly 2 investors, and even the air conditioning of the hotel was still full of heat.

Quantitative trading has developed rapidly in recent years

For most ordinary investors, quantitative trading is still a relatively unfamiliar concept, but this model has been popular in China for decades. In 21, domestic stock index futures were listed, and the turnover increased by 1.4 times in two years, which provided an excellent trading target for quantitative trading, and domestic quantitative trading developed rapidly.

According to Hualian Futures, in the first half of 212, the quantitative trading volume accounted for about 8% of the total trading volume in the domestic securities market, but it accounted for about 2% of the trading volume of stock index futures. At present, the vast majority of brokers and futures companies have started quantitative trading, and some private equity firms and individual investors have also started to use quantitative trading products.

In fact, over the past three years or so, traditional investment strategies have failed one after another in the context of the continuous decline of the stock market. However, a number of emerging investment methods with stock index futures, commodity futures and bonds as investment targets and quantitative investment and programmatic trading as tools have emerged in the domestic investment market and achieved relatively stable returns.

"The traditional investment strategy relies on people's subjective feelings to invest; The quantitative investment is based on the mathematical statistical model and automated transactions are realized by computers. " Lin Yuwei, head of the Wealth Management Center of Guosen Securities Dongguan Sales Department, pointed out that the application of quantitative investment covers almost all financial investment fields. With the support of computers and networks, the investment strategy of human brain is written into a language program, and the computer triggers the trading conditions to complete the automatic trading. In fact, the investment method of traditional investment is rigorous.

According to Hualian Futures, quantitative investment is mainly used in futures trading, ETF arbitrage, conditional stock selection, warrant arbitrage trading, etc. The mainstream platforms include Wenhua Finance, Trading Pioneer and Pyramid, and platforms such as Multicharts, Longsoft, MasterCard, Leopard and Yesterday are also widely used in the industry.

Quantitative investment in Dongguan is successful

In Dongguan, there are also many institutions testing quantitative investment, including securities companies, futures companies and private equity investment companies. Judging from the current situation, it can be described as "testing the water".

For example, Hualian Futures launched a series of "Jinwanjia" programmed products last year, in which "Smart Win Stock Index Portfolio Strategy" is its first special personalized trading model portfolio. This model portfolio has formed eight sets of unique programmed trading models through quantitative analysis of the operating characteristics of stock index futures in the past two years. Since the model was put into operation, the highest annualized rate of return has exceeded 6%, and the lowest has also reached 26%, but the maximum retreat is less than 1%.

Guoxin Securities Dongguan Business Department has set up a special "Quantitative Investment Center". Last year, the business department had more than 2 customers who participated in the programmed trading of stock index futures in different periods. The annualized rate of return of the best-performing accounts was nearly 4%, and all accounts beat the broader market.

Dongguan Guanxiang Capital Investment Company, which issued the first multi-strategy hedge fund in China, is a "fan" of quantitative investment. At present, all its special account products adopt quantitative investment methods, and the income is good. For example, the net value of one of its special wealth management products increased by 41% from June 19, 212 to May 19, 213.

"The characteristic of quantitative products is that they can be profitable at any market stage." Cai Enxia, investment consultant of Guosen Securities Dongguan Sales Department, told reporters that quantitative products are generally long-short hedging, so both bull and bear markets can make profits, but they also have weaknesses, that is, the bull market can't win the general stock investment products. "In 27, the big bull market also earned about 3%, but in 28, the big bear market also earned about 15%."

"capital will not always move in a straight line in one direction, and capital appreciation is a difficult and tortuous process." Jiang Guodong, CEO of Guanxiang Capital, reminded that retracement is a pause in the progress of capital growth and can also be regarded as the opportunity cost of futures trading. "Therefore, we must correctly treat the optimization results of strategic parameters, not deliberately pursue the highest income, and not over-fit the market; At the same time, adhering to the correct trading concept and trading method, strict implementation and perseverance are the prerequisites for sustained profitability. "

The application of quantitative investment covers almost all financial investment fields. With the support of computers and networks, the investment strategy of human brain is written into a language program, and the trading conditions are triggered by computers to complete automatic transactions. In fact, it is the rigor of traditional investment.

investment dictionary

what is Quantitative Trading

quantitative trading is to use modern statistical and mathematical tools, build a quantitative model with the help of computers, formulate strategies, and trade in strict accordance with established strategies. Specifically, it can be divided into high-frequency trading and non-high-frequency trading, in which non-high-frequency trading is suitable for ordinary individual investors and small and medium-sized institutions.