In view of the short-term market trend is still unclear, it will take time to repair, external risks will increase, and the uncertainty of A shares will also increase. Coupled with the holiday story, the two major indicators of the bull market, the brokerage sector and the Growth Enterprise Market, are still in a downturn. I'm afraid it's hard to rise for the time being. Only when they triumph can they lead the major indexes to take off. On the contrary, they need to be alert to the collapse of the organization and the adjustment of market shocks. Although the space is limited, it is impossible to rise indefinitely.
The three major US stock indexes opened higher overnight and fluctuated strongly. The Dow Jones index closed at the Xiaoyang line of the daily cycle, and the Nasdaq index closed at the Xiaoyin line, continuing its high operation and hitting a record high again.
There are only three trading days left in the market in 2020. Looking forward to the future, the spring A-share market of 202 1 is highly valued by institutions. In the eyes of many brokers, the slow rise of the New Year market, shaken by many factors, lasted at least until around the Spring Festival.
For the restless structural market in 20021spring, many brokers continue to be optimistic about the three main lines of new energy, procyclicality and consumption, and there are opportunities to look at the technology sector in the medium and long term.
The potential economic disturbance caused by the epidemic in the short term will encourage the policy to continue to relax marginally, and real estate investment and export will promote the basic orientation of the economy. Rising fundamentals and marginal policy easing will promote the potential incremental wait-and-see funds to continue to enter the market, and promote the slow growth of the new year at least until around the Spring Festival.
Recently, the A-share market has fluctuated upward, but liquor stocks that had soared before have dived frequently in the past week. At the same time, semiconductor, photovoltaic, new energy and other sectors continued to rise. With the intensification of valuation differentiation, many investors believe that the Capital Group has shown signs of loosening.
Plate valuation differentiation is a normal phenomenon. "China's economy is undergoing transformation and upgrading, and different industries have different prospects. For example, the consumer sector benefits from the transformation and upgrading of consumption, and the high-tech sector benefits from the general direction of industrial upgrading in China. The market is willing to give these sectors a higher valuation. " .
Although the market volatility has intensified, the New Year market is far from over. The economic work conference gave the market a "reassurance" and confirmed that there would be no sharp turn in the policy, and the accelerated inflow of foreign capital would continue to support the market.
At present, the economic recovery is still continuing, and the trend of slow cattle is still continuing, which can reach a new high at the end of the year. As the central economic work conference at the end of the year sets the tone for next year's policy, we believe that the slow bull trend of A-share volatility will continue, and the innovation at the end of the year is low, mainly because:
1. From the molecular point of view, passenger car sales and other data show that the economy is still continuing to repair.
2. In terms of denominator liquidity, the yield of government bonds shows a certain downward trend, and the credit spread tends to be stable; Funds such as Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect and financing balance continued to flow in.
3. From the perspective of calendar effect, the performance of major indexes after the holiday is generally better than that before the holiday, and the performance of large-scale indexes before the holiday is relatively better than that of small and medium-sized enterprises, but the opposite is true after the holiday; This is related to the settlement of funds at the end of the year and the cashing of income before the holiday.
As for the trend of next year, it can be said that it is the focus of attention of many investors. Ran Xu, deputy general manager of Oriental Fund's stock research department, said that it is expected that A shares will have a long bull market in the future.