The International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economic growth rate will be 3.7% this year, and the United States may reach 2.5%. Overall, it will pick up slowly, but we should fully estimate the depth and breadth of post-crisis adjustment. Since 20 14, international investment banks and domestic authorities generally believe that the prices of copper and aluminum will still fall in 20 14, and the bottom support of zinc and tin prices has been formed, but the motivation for a sharp increase is still insufficient. At the same time, the leading role of the international economy in China has decreased. From 20 1 1, the proportion of China's trade in global trade began to be lower than that of GDP, and the international market share of traditional labor and resource-intensive products decreased continuously at 20 1 12.
Situation 2: Deepening reform will bring long-term dividends, but there will inevitably be pains in the short term.
A survey of more than 3,500 enterprises conducted by the State Council Development Research Center shows that overcapacity is still characterized by a wide range of industries and a high degree of absolute excess. In 2065,438+03, the equipment utilization rate of enterprises was only 72%, and 68% of enterprises thought it would take at least three years to digest overcapacity. At the same time, direct purchase of electricity from electrolytic aluminum is still difficult to popularize. The support policy for aluminum structural vehicles has not yet been introduced, and the aluminum price is seriously upside down with the production cost of enterprises. In particular, a group of high-cost electrolytic aluminum enterprises are facing a series of problems such as personnel, debt, land and equipment, and the task of resolving overcapacity is becoming more and more arduous.
Situation 3: The overall financing environment has improved, but the short-term financial risks have increased.
Since 20 13, the marketization of interest rates and the development of multi-level capital markets are conducive to reducing the financing costs of enterprises in the long run. But in the short term, the financial risks accumulated over the years may rise. At present, the prosperity index of China's nonferrous metals industry is in the normal range, but the leading index has been falling continuously since 20 12 and 10, one of the important reasons is the influence of financial market fluctuations. In addition, the financial risks that may be caused by the real estate bubble, local debt platform and manufacturing liabilities may also affect the financing of non-ferrous enterprises and increase the cost of capital, which requires sufficient understanding.
Situation 4: The long-term demand for non-ferrous metals keeps growing, but the product structure can't meet the demand.
With the recovery of the world economy, the construction and renewal of high-speed railways, electric power, water conservancy and infrastructure in many countries will reach a peak, which will keep the demand for non-ferrous metals growing. However, the product structure of non-ferrous metals can not meet the needs of economic transformation and upgrading. According to statistics, during 20 14 and1~ February, the profit ratio of 5 1 enterprise, which the association focuses on, decreased by 57.6% and the loss reached 43. 1%. The investment in fixed assets in non-ferrous metals industry only increased by 6% year-on-year, which was 2 1. 1 percentage point lower than the national average in the same period. This has never happened in the non-ferrous metal industry for many years, mainly because structural adjustment, transformation and development have not yet found a breakthrough, and it is still relatively weak in the fields of new product research and development and application development.
Situation 5: The international environment continues to improve on the whole, but the constraints are complicated in the short term.
The rapid growth of China's economy makes the adjustment of international relations generally beneficial, which expands the space in improving the ability to guarantee foreign resources and introducing advanced production factors such as R&D and brand. However, the adjustment of international interest pattern is very complicated, and the tendency of trade protectionism and resource nationalism is on the rise, which affects the development of the industry. For example, the WTO's final ruling on the case of US, Europe, Japan v. China on export management measures of tungsten, molybdenum and rare earths will have a great impact on our superior rare metal management system. At the same time, the cost of overseas investment in China is rising, and the construction funds of almost all projects exceed the estimated budget, and some projects even exceed the estimated budget several times, which also increases the risk of going abroad.