I came back with a guilty conscience, and it's been a little longer ...

This time I want to talk about some macroeconomic indicators, such as M2, CPI, PMI, PPI, GDP, etc., what they mean, what they have to do with us, what scholars or investors think of these data, and what's the use.

You may think that macroeconomics is far away from us, and there is no need to understand them. In fact, many phenomena in life are related to these indicators. For example, if you want to go abroad, you will quickly look at the exchange rate and change more foreign currencies when the exchange rate is low. For example, when buying a house, you will pay attention to the deposit and loan interest rates and think about the rise and fall of house prices in the short term. You often need to understand current macro-financial events to make better decisions. To understand these, we can start with some indicators.

GDP: Gross Domestic Product (GDP for short) refers to the value of all final products and services produced in the economy of a country or region within a certain period (a quarter or a year). Generally, it is published once a quarter, which is a lagging indicator. Domestic GDP in previous years increased by more than 6% year-on-year, and it was -6.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, which shows the great impact of the epidemic. Every 1% economic downturn means that countless people have difficulties in finding jobs.

CPI and PPI: consumer price index and producer price index. CPI focuses on the consumer side, while PPI focuses on the production side. PPI includes coal, steel, oil, cement, etc. CPI includes eggs, pork, vegetables, rice noodles, clothes, tobacco and alcohol, etc. Generally speaking, when PPI rises, CPI will eventually rise.

These two indicators are related to inflation. Generally, CPI is used to measure the inflation rate of a country. If it increases by more than 5% year-on-year, it indicates that there are signs of inflation. However, if the CPI in our country generally exceeds 3, monetary policy may be tightened. If the core CPI is below 2, the economy will be too cold and the currency will be looser.

and the PPI is high, indicating that the ex-factory price is high and the market demand is relatively strong; But at the same time, the prices of raw materials for production have also gone up, and the cost of enterprises has also gone up, so it is difficult to generalize. Therefore, it is necessary to look at the breakdown of PPI. Generally speaking, when PPI continues to rise, the economy is relatively prosperous; PPI continues to fall, and the economy is not very prosperous. Roughly 4%-7% year-on-year, the economy is improving, and then it will overheat. Below 3%, the market understands that demand is cold.

Money supply: refers to a country's money stock that serves the social and economic operation in a certain period. It consists of two parts: deposit money and cash money supplied by financial institutions including the central bank. The currency estimation caliber of central banks in the world is not completely consistent, but the basic basis for the division is the same, that is, the size of liquidity. M (base currency): cash in circulation; M1:M+ corporate demand deposits+government organizations and troops deposits+rural deposits+credit card deposits held by individuals; M2 (broad money): M1+ savings deposits of urban and rural residents+fixed deposits in corporate deposits+foreign currency deposits+trust deposits; M3:M2+ financial bonds+commercial paper+large negotiable certificates of deposit, etc.

People often look at the year-on-year growth rate of M2 to judge whether monetary policy is loose. It is often said that releasing water is also comparing money to water. If there is more money supply and more water is released, the price of assets may rise. Some experts pay more attention to M1, which refers to cash+bank current deposit, that is, money that can be used at any time. If the economy wants to expand and enterprises want to invest, there may be more cash. If the year-on-year growth rate of M1 rises for several months, it means that the economy is going up.

PMI: purchasing managers' index. Questionnaires are sent to enterprise managers to investigate the production and sales situation, and the PMI index is finally synthesized, exceeding 5, indicating that more people think that the situation is good this month, and the economy may improve. Conversely, the economy may get worse. The index to measure the manufacturing industry in eight aspects, such as production, new orders, commodity prices, inventory, employees, delivery of orders, new export orders and imports, is a very important subsidiary index in the leading indicators of the economy, which has a high timeliness.

compared with GDP, this lagging indicator is predictive. The general rules are:

1. See whether it is above 5 or below.

2. Look at its changing trend, whether it becomes bigger or smaller.

3. It's a monthly indicator. We should continuously check to see if it keeps a similar trend for several months.

total social financing: refers to the balance of funds obtained by the real economy from the financial system at the end of a certain period (the end of the month, the end of the season or the end of the year). It is about the total amount of money borrowed by the whole society in a certain period of time, which represents the barometer of economic heat and cold. The ways of borrowing money include loans, stocks, bonds and so on. The year-on-year growth reflects everyone's desire for investment and consumption during this period, so social integration has a high correlation with the country's economic growth rate and is highly predictable.

benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans: it is the guiding interest rate for loans issued by the central bank to commercial banks, and it is one of the monetary policies used by the central bank to regulate the operation of social economy and financial system.

statutory deposit reserve ratio: refers to the ratio of the statutory reserve required by the central bank of a country that commercial banks and deposit financial institutions must deposit in the central bank to their total deposits, that is, the ratio of banks' deposits in the central bank. Adjusting the statutory deposit reserve ratio is an effective way for the state to adjust its monetary policy.

We often hear about adjusting the above two rates, both of which belong to the category of monetary policy. It is often said that lowering the deposit reserve ratio, raising interest rates and lowering interest rates refer to raising or lowering the benchmark deposit and loan interest rates of financial institutions. The deposit reserve system mainly controls the amount of funds, while the benchmark interest rate adjusts the price of funds. Interest rate can be regarded as the price of capital. RRR cuts and interest rate cuts can generally expand the credit scale (capital) of the whole society, stimulate the economy, and also increase the prices of assets (real estate, stocks, etc.); The criterion of raising interest rates and raising interest rates is the opposite.

Interbank Offered Rate: refers to the short-term capital lending rate between financial institutions, and there is a lending rate, which indicates the interest rate that financial institutions are willing to borrow; Lending rate, the interest rate that indicates willingness to lend.

By the way, the yield of Yu 'ebao is closely related to monetary policy and market interest rate, which can reflect the tightness of monetary policy. Generally speaking, the lending rate between the central bank and financial institutions is regarded as the policy interest rate, while the lending rate between financial institutions is the market interest rate. Monetary policy affects the policy interest rate and money supply, which in turn affects the market interest rate. Most of Yu 'ebao's investments are inter-bank money markets, sharing the inter-bank market interest rate, so its yield is closely related to the market.

the tightness of monetary policy in the past 2 years can also be seen from the yield of Yu' ebao. In March and April, the monetary policy was very loose, and the yield of Yu' ebao was very low, 1.%. In the following months, the yield of some money funds broke 2%, indicating that the monetary policy was much tighter.

LPR: loan prime rate (lpr)

what is relevant to us is that the mortgage interest rate can be converted into the 5-year interest rate plus point of lpr. In the past, the benchmark loan interest rate of the central bank was adopted. If you are optimistic about the long-term interest rate decline, you can convert it, but now the deadline has passed. For the market, the adoption of LPR announced once a month on the 2th marks the marketization of interest rates, breaking the "dual track" problem of the coexistence of benchmark loan interest rates and market interest rates.

yield of 1-year treasury bonds: the yield of 1-year treasury bonds is the anchor of asset pricing in financial markets, which is often called "risk-free yield". Treasury bonds generally have five kinds of yields, namely, nominal yield (coupon yield), spot yield, yield to maturity, subscriber yield (bond issuance rate) and holding period yield. The bond yield we often refer to in financial news generally refers to yield to maturity, considering the current bond price, the spread of principal and interest returned after maturity and the remaining years from maturity.

the increase in the yield of national debt means the decline in the price of national debt itself. The yield can be simply estimated by the face value of the bond/the current bond price. The higher the yield, the lower the current bond price. By the way, if the central bank cuts interest rates and RRR, it will usually lead to an increase in bond prices. The central bank can raise bond prices by buying bonds in the open market, thus reducing the yield (market interest rate) of bonds. If you hold a bond fund before the interest rate cut, the bond price will rise during the interest rate cut, and the net value of your debt base will also rise.

when it comes to the yield of 1-year treasury bonds, generally speaking, it is the anchor for pricing other assets, so the prices of stocks, bonds, futures and real estate will be affected by its yield. Without considering inflation:

the yield of 1-year treasury bonds moves down, while asset prices rise.

the yield of 1-year treasury bonds rises, while asset prices fall. The principle is similar to the previous bond price decline.

by the way, generally speaking, the yield of short-term bonds will be lower than the long-term yield, which reflects the optimism about long-term economic growth. However, if the yield of short-term bonds is higher than that of long-term bonds, for example, the yield of three-month US bonds is higher than that of 1-year bonds, which reflects that investors think that the long-term economic recession is a bad warning signal, which may lead to the decline of the stock market and commodities and the rise of the bond market.

There are many indicators mentioned above, which can be roughly classified as follows:

Indicators reflecting the current economic situation: GDP, PMI and social integration, among which GDP lags behind, while PMI and social integration are more timely and forward-looking.

CPI, PPI

reflect the trend of monetary policy: money supply, the above-mentioned changes in interest rates, deposit reserve, etc.

reflect fiscal policy: fiscal deficit and total government debt ratio.

the impact of some indicators on various assets is as follows, which can be used as a reference for you. (

For us ordinary people, we can get to know the macro indicators that often appear in financial news and know the general meaning and the possible meaning behind them. The purpose of this article has also been achieved. Of course, some people hope to judge the current economic situation through some indicators and help them make investment decisions, such as asset allocation this year and whether they should buy a house this year. I think it's too difficult. Macroeconomy is a complex system, and it's impossible to abstract it by several indicators, which only reflect the macro-economy to some extent. Professional things are still left to professional people. I prefer to refer to the views of various experts and scholars on macroeconomics and policies, and choose judgments on this basis, which is more reliable. Of course, these experts and scholars refer to those who have stood the test of time and have a high prediction rate.

Next, let's see how experts judge the macro situation and make investment decisions, and try to understand their investment thinking mode.

People's Republic of China * * * and National Bureau of Statistics of China

Statistics of People's Bank of China

Economic Data Center of Oriental Fortune Network

Reference materials:

Finance Course of Xiang Shuai Peking University, 3 Lectures on Macroeconomics of He Fan

Reading Economic Indicators with a Picture.