The newspaper (www.thepaper.cn) interviewed a number of analysts and investors of US dollar debt, and found that some investors had expectations for the follow-up trend of US dollar debt in real estate.
The agency said it would set up a fund to bet on the dollar debt of real estate enterprises.
An analyst who has been paying close attention to China real estate dollar debt for a long time told this newspaper that recently, with the financing behavior of real estate enterprises gradually returning to normal, the reasonable capital demand of developers is being met, and the market expectation is improving steadily, which will help real estate enterprises to reduce their capital pressure and ensure their liquidity. Consider buying back some of the wrongly killed US dollar debt. However, it mainly depends on whether the later policies continue to be supported and whether the sales side can be restored.
Ni Jianda, chairman of Kuipai Investment Group, told the newspaper that the company is preparing to launch a fund to bet on such undervalued real estate dollar debt.
Ni Jianda said that optimistic about the dollar debt that was wrongly killed in this wave of market, the future trend of dollar debt still depends on the development and changes of the big situation. Regarding when the fund will be launched and how big it will be, Ni Jianda stressed that the structure of the fund is currently being formulated, and the time is still uncertain.
According to the report of CICC, the yield of real estate dollar bonds in 20021year hit a new low since 2008. As of 202 1, 12, 3 1, the yield of high-yield real estate dollar bonds reached -27.6%. Frequent defaults and low yields make the capital market lose confidence in real estate dollar bonds.
The newspaper learned from several private equity firms that they recently started buying real estate dollar bonds.
A person engaged in private equity fund told this newspaper, "The amount we bought is not large, and the total amount is about 200-300 million yuan. We are considering doubling the bet. We feel that in the future, both the financing side and the sales side will have some positive policies to guide the housing enterprises to return to healthy development. "
A foreign-funded institutional bond analyst said that from the current situation, it is more difficult for developers to obtain rapid capital withdrawal from the sales side in the short term, and selling assets is a faster way to obtain funds. "At present, we can see that some real estate enterprises that have not defaulted on public bonds and announced liquidity problems have begun to actively sell assets, and have also produced some relatively high-quality assets. But now there are too many assets in the market, and there are limited buyers who have a lot of cash and can pay quickly. At present, the overall confidence of real estate bonds has not recovered, and the subsequent default pressure and expectations are greater. Under the current circumstances, a large number of mergers and acquisitions are difficult, and it takes time for institutions to observe. " The analyst stressed that institutions will not "cut across the board" real estate bonds, and investors will still buy some dollar bonds of developers with stronger short-term solvency and better liquidity, but also pointed out that bonds are different from stocks, and they will not know whether they will be paid as scheduled until the redemption date.
In terms of overseas liabilities, Wind data shows that 2022 is the peak period of US dollar debt repayment of housing enterprises, with a maturity balance of US$ 27.325 billion. Among them, 1 has the largest maturity, reaching $7.4 billion.
Frequent introduction of policies to support mergers and acquisitions of high-quality projects
Since the second half of 20021,due to the failure to repay the debts due by some real estate enterprises, the suspension of real estate, the uncertainty of whether the pre-sold houses can be delivered in time and other factors, the risk aversion of various entities in the real estate market has increased, and financial institutions have also experienced short-term pressure reactions, which have continued to shrink credit and "accidentally injured" the reasonable financing needs of some real estate enterprises.
The real estate industry is large in scale, long in chain and wide in scope. Once the related risks are not handled properly, it will have a great impact.
202 1 12 The Financial Times, which is in charge of the Central Bank of China, reported that recently, the Central Bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued the Notice on Doing a Good Job in Financial Services for Risk Disposal Projects of Mergers and Acquisitions of Key Real Estate Enterprises, encouraging banks to carry out M&A loan business steadily and orderly, and focusing on supporting high-quality real estate enterprises to merge and acquire high-quality projects of large real estate enterprises in danger. It is mentioned that it is necessary to increase support for bond financing. Support high-quality real estate enterprises to register and issue debt financing tools in the inter-bank market, and finance mergers and acquisitions of key real estate enterprises' risk disposal projects. Encourage banking financial institutions to actively provide services for M&A enterprises to issue debt financing instruments to improve the issuance efficiency. Encourage banking financial institutions to invest in debt financing instruments such as M&A bonds and M&A bills.
Some real estate developers told the newspaper that this notice is the government's policy to solve the real estate market crisis, and it does not mean that the determination to regulate the real estate market has changed. The current policy is only to explore the bottom and test the strength of the policy. Although it is necessary to regulate the real estate market, it does not want to cause unnecessary economic and financial fluctuations or even turbulence.
65438+1October 18 At the press conference of 20021financial statistics held by the State Council Information Office, Zou Lan, director of the Financial Market Department of the People's Bank of China, said that in the second half of 20021year, the risks of individual real estate enterprises such as Evergrande became obvious, which affected the risk aversion of various real estate entities and the short-term stress response of financial institutions. In view of this situation, according to the deployment of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, the financial management department immediately took countermeasures. One of the important tasks is the Notice on Doing a Good Job in Financial Services for the Merger and Reorganization of Risk Disposal Projects of Key Real Estate Enterprises, which guides financial institutions to support risk resolution and industry liquidation in a market-oriented way.
Zou Lan said that with the joint efforts of all parties, real estate sales, land purchase and financing have gradually returned to normal in the near future, and market expectations have steadily improved. In the next step, the People's Bank of China will resolutely implement the decision-making arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, conscientiously implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, fully implement the long-term mechanism of real estate in accordance with the requirements of exploring new development models, maintain the continuity, consistency and stability of real estate financial policies, steadily implement the prudent management system of real estate finance, increase financial support for housing leasing, and promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry by taking measures according to the city.
In addition, the bookkeeping and pricing of M&A theme bonds, the first real estate project of financial institutions, has also been completed.
On 65438+1October 2 1 day, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank announced that it had completed the bookkeeping pricing of the first phase of financial bonds. The bond issuance scale of this issue is 30 billion yuan, with a maturity of 3 years and a pricing of 2.69%. The bonds in this issue are divided into two types according to the purpose of raising funds. The first category is ordinary financial bonds with a scale of 25 billion yuan, and the second category is M&A theme bonds of real estate projects with a scale of 5 billion yuan, which is also the first M&A theme bonds of real estate projects issued by financial institutions.