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"Out of Illusion, Toward Maturity" Reading Notes

This book was written by the author in 2009. At that time, he missed the first round of the bull market because he was doing futures.

But what I wrote down is every word.

This is an introductory book on stocks, and I think it’s pretty good.

The pursuit of certainty comes from the pursuit of perfection. Even if they know that this kind of perfection is unrealistic, they cannot let people give up the pursuit.

More people are willing to cover their ears and steal the bell to deal with the inevitable imperfections in the real world.

Chapter 1: The Road to a Trader What he advocates is the trend following strategy, which is to achieve profit by reducing the accuracy rate and trial and error many times.

Trend following often occurs when buying at the ceiling and selling at the floor.

Buy at point B and sell at point S.

But how many people can persist?

If you stick to it for a few years, you can definitely earn a lot of money.

This road is full of ups and downs and thorns, and the master also made various mistakes on this road.

Chapter 2: Concept Explanation This chapter mainly introduces various principles and concepts.

The purpose is to tell us: It is completely wrong to operate stocks in an instinctive way.

There are all kinds of evils in our instincts.

We must avoid it in a rational way. Wealth is the feedback of psychological suffering.

1. Iceberg principle: It is impossible for us to know the whole picture of things, and there is a high probability of interpreting it in the direction we want (on 11.3, various people thought it might fall, and the bosses all suggested clearing positions. But in fact, it did not fall below the trend, and it happened to be in the

The trend line is a good opportunity to enter the market. Don't look at what happened before, as long as it falls back to the 20-day moving average, there is essentially no difference between going down from the top and going up from the bottom.) Chapter 3: Basic analysis if it holds.

If the stock is no more than 2 years old, there is no need to talk about fundamental analysis.

Value restoration is inevitable, but how long are you willing to wait?

Value investing does not mean "taking advantage".

Value investing is not about buying good stocks, or even stocks that will get better, but about buying stocks that are better than what the public expects.

If you don't have access to information that's not available to the public, and you don't have distinctive values, then fundamental analysis will always be a self-deception for you.

According to Lynch: If three of your ten stocks are big winners, they can make up for the losses of one or two of your stocks and the six or seven mediocre stocks.

For Buffett, there is also the principle of using no more than 25% of his partnership funds in one-time investments.

From this point of view, basic analysis masters rely on diversified investments to prevent risks.

Chapter 4: Technical Analysis You must form a ring of buying, holding, and selling.

Even so, there is no trading strategy that can guarantee one-time results, so we have to form a chain through these many links.

The key to whether a person trades well or not is to see whether his trading chain is good.

Since there is no method that can be responsible for a single transaction, technical analysis can only realize its value by using it multiple times.

Using technical analysis multiple times is equivalent to forming a trading system.

According to my experience of more than ten years, when the bull market ends, the lower the price and the smaller the increase, the faster the stock will fall.

In my opinion, the key to profit from using the system does not lie in the quality of the system, but in the user's mental state.

Sometimes I really feel that trading profits come entirely from compensation for mental torture.

The profit margin is determined by three factors: accuracy, odds, and operation cycle.

A method with a high accuracy rate is definitely not a good method. On the contrary, a method with a higher accuracy rate is more likely to kill people.

Using news to verify the strength of the market is very effective in individual stocks.

The core idea is: if it should fall or not, it should be bullish; if it should rise or not, it should be bearish.

Chapter 5: The trivial theory of the stock market hierarchy: Absolute bull market - Shifting gears - Relative bull market - Absolute bear market - Shifting gears - Relative bear market - Shifting gears - Absolute bull market Conclusion: Sector rotation can be used in an absolute bull market

In pursuit of maximum profits, you can even wait for weak stocks to make up for their gains. The key to profit at this time is to hold shares patiently; pay close attention to stocks that refuse to adjust during the bull market shift. Usually, although the index is falling at this time, the market will be more lively.

In a relatively bull market, we must dare to buy stocks with high prices and huge gains, and completely abandon the mentality of making up for the increase.

Compared with the need to make money in a bull market, the stocks with the largest gains are those that retail investors dare not buy.

Strong usually makes sense, and stocks that are stronger than the market will usually continue to be stronger than the market.

Regardless of whether it is a bull market or a bear market, 80% of the stocks are usually weaker than the market, while 20% of the stocks are significantly stronger than the market.

And these 20% of stocks that are much stronger than the market are exactly the stocks that you dare not buy.

We must absolutely abandon the bottom stock picking strategy!

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New shares and ex-rights are market amplifiers.

New stocks listed at the bottom of the market and stocks ex-rights will usually have a stronger future rise than the market; while new stocks listed at the top of the market and stocks ex-rights will usually decline more than the market in the future.