Philip Morris International released 21Q2 results: 21Q1 revenue was 7.594 billion US dollars, up 14.2% year-on-year; The net profit of returning to the mother was 2.172 billion US dollars, up 11.56% year-on-year. Diluted earnings per share was $1.39, up 11.2% year-on-year. The revenue of harm reduction products (RRP, Reduced-Risk Product, mainly IQOS) in 21H1 was USD 4.398 billion, up by 39.1% year-on-year; Among them, 21Q1RRP revenue was USD 2.276 billion, up 41.7% year-on-year and 7.26% quarter-on-quarter. The company aims to account for 4%/5% of RRP revenue in 23/25. 21H1 Heated Tobacco Unit shipped 46.9 billion pieces, up 3.1% year-on-year; Among them, the shipment of 21Q2 heated tobacco products was 24.356 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. The expected annual shipment of heated tobacco products is 95-1 billion pieces. We are optimistic about HNB tobacco parts suppliers Yingqu Technology and Jinjia, and consumables suppliers Huabao International, Huabao and Xianhe.
investment points
IQOS sales increased month-on-month, with the expected annual shipment of nearly 1 billion pieces. The revenue of 21H1 of Philip Morris International RRP (mainly iQos) was 4.398 billion US dollars (2H1 revenue was 4.222 billion US dollars), up 39.1% year-on-year; Among them, the revenue of 21Q2RRP was USD 2.276 billion (the revenue of 2Q2 was USD 2.167 billion), up 41.7% year-on-year and 7.26% quarter-on-quarter. In the last four quarters, the revenue growth rates of RRP's 2Q3/2Q4/21Q1/21Q2 were 28.6%/24.5%/36.5%/41.7% respectively, and the growth rates in the two quarters of this year were significantly improved. In terms of proportion, 21Q2RRP revenue accounted for 29.97%(21Q1 revenue accounted for 28.56%), which was 1.41% higher than that of 21Q1. The company aims to account for 4%/5% of RRP revenue in 23/25. HTU growth continued its strong momentum, with 21H1 shipments of 46.9 billion pieces, up 3.1% year-on-year; Among them, the shipment of 21Q2 heated tobacco products was 24.356 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. It is estimated that the annual shipment of HTU will be 95-1 billion pieces.
the number of IQOS users exceeds 2 million, and the conversion rate of quitting smoking remains high. The penetration rate of iQos in major markets is 22.7% (+2.7pct year-on-year and -.7pct month-on-month) in Japan, 6.5% (-.1pct year-on-year and -.3pct month-on-month) in South Korea and 5.5% (+1.4pct year-on-year and-on-month-on-month) in the European Union. The penetration rate of IQOS product 21Q2 decreased slightly in key areas such as Japan and the European Union. In addition, the number of IQOS users has increased, and the harm reduction effect has promoted the conversion rate of smoking cessation. The number of IQOS users has increased to 2.1 million by 21Q2, up about 5.2% from the previous month, among which 73.13%(+1.13pct) have changed from traditional cigarette consumers to IQOS consumers.
the expansion of sales area contributes to the revenue. The new product ILUMA8 was launched in Japan in August. By the end of 221Q2, IQOS products have been sold to 67 countries or regions, with 4 new developments compared with the end of the 2th century. The company expects that the products will face 1 different markets in 225, which will continue to bring revenue growth points to IQOS. The new generation IQOS ILUMA is expected to be released in Japan in August, which will support more convenient bomb changing operation and bring higher conversion rate. ILUMA introduces new internal heating technology based on Smartcore induction technology, and there are many models, corresponding to the new generation of HTU consumables. It is expected that the prices of smoking sets and consumables will increase to some extent.
risk warning: the supervision of new tobacco policy is becoming stricter, the landing time of new tobacco policy is uncertain, the iteration of new products is not up to expectations, Sales of major customers' products fell short of expectations
Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries: high temperature superimposed epidemic affected the rapid rebound of pig prices
Category: Industry organization: Capital Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Meng Weixiao Date: July 21, 221
We observed the continuous purchasing and storage of the National Development and Reform Commission and the definite gap between supply and demand in the third quarter, and we believe that the rebound of pig prices is expected to accelerate, and the animal insurance industry is expected to accelerate in the third quarter. At present, the recommended order of the idea plate is: pig white chicken animal protection seed industry.
Pigs: In the first half of 221, the breeding profits of autotrophic and outsourced piglets in the pig industry dropped from the high profits of 2421.1 yuan/head and 864.14 yuan/head at the beginning of January to -526.36 yuan/head and -157.78 yuan/head at the end of June. By July 9, 221, the breeding profits of self-bred, autotrophic and outsourced piglets were -144.53 yuan/head and -1215.91 yuan/head, up 8.1% and 1.44% from the previous month. The total cost of slaughter pigs for autotrophic and outsourced piglets has also been rising, among which the total cost of slaughter pigs for outsourced piglets has increased the most, increasing by 63.51% from January 22 to January 221, while the existing ones have decreased. As of July 9, 221, the total cost of slaughter pigs for autotrophic and outsourced piglets was 1995.52 yuan/head and 366.9 yuan/head respectively. From the point of view of self-propagation, feed cost accounts for about 7%-8% of breeding cost; From the perspective of outsourcing breeding, the cost of piglets accounted for about 3%-5% of the breeding cost in previous years, but the increase in the cost of piglets in the first half of the year increased the proportion by about 2%. With the decrease of piglet's compensation cost, the breeding cost has dropped from a high level, and the price of piglets has also dropped from a high level of 19.29 yuan/kg. As of July 9, 221, the average price of piglets was 5.95 yuan/kg, down 53.38%. We believe that this phenomenon fully shows that the stocks of pigs and sows have recovered significantly, the epidemic situation has been gradually controlled, and the supply recovery is a foregone conclusion. In the short term, we think that the epidemic in southwest China has dragged down the price of pigs, and the high temperature weather has brought passive slaughter and sluggish consumption of big pigs. The difficulty in getting goods with white stripes has suppressed the upward momentum of pig prices.
according to monitoring by Boya hexun, the average price of live pigs nationwide this week was 15.85 yuan /kg, down 1.54% from the previous month and 57.39% from the same period last year. The ratio of pig to grain was 5.62: 1, a decrease of 1.26% from the previous month, and the ratio of pig to grain was 4.61: 1, a decrease of 1.54% from the previous month. The loss of self-propagation was 174.75 yuan/head, an increase of 2.9% from the previous month and 16.73% from the same period last year. The loss of outsourcing breeding was 1261.63 yuan/head, an increase of 2.61% from the previous month and an increase of 189.46% from the same period last year. The average price of piglets this week was 27.96 yuan /kg, up .24% month-on-month and down 71.9% year-on-year. The price of binary sow was 5.2 yuan /kg, down 3.44% from the previous month and 36.3% from the same period last year.
Poultry: The demand for frozen chicken products is general recently. At present, the output of white feather meat chicken is still increasing, but the terminal frozen chicken products are not well delivered, the inventory of slaughter enterprises is increasing again, the price of frozen products is low, farmers are holding down the bar at low prices, and the price of hairy chicken is slightly adjusted. With the adjustment of production capacity of chicken breeding enterprises, the price of chicken seedlings rebounded at a low level. This week, the average price of broilers in the main producing areas was 7.83 yuan/kg, down 1.76% from the previous month; The comprehensive price of chicken products was 9.95 yuan/kg, down .3% from the previous month; The price of chicken seedlings was 1.17 yuan/feather, up 8.33% from the previous month; The average price of meat eggs was 1.45 yuan/piece, up 2.11% from the previous month. This week, the sales revenue of slaughter broilers decreased, and commercial chicken farming continued to lose money; This week, the chicken farm lost money; Independent slaughter is profitable.
recommendation: Mu Yuan Plekemin and Zhongmu Bio-shares
Risk warning: COVID-19 epidemic spread risk, international situation change risk, and policy landing risk is less than expected.
Huawei HarmonyOS OS- Leading the whole scene ecology of the Internet of Everything: HarmonyOS is expected to achieve the breakthrough of the domestic autonomy of the operating system
Category: Industry organization: soochow securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Huang Xili Date: July 21, 221
Core conclusion of the report
HarmonyOS was born, and it is expected to achieve the breakthrough of the domestic autonomy of the operating system in the past 1 years.
the evolution of terminal forms has brought profound changes to the operating system. In the first two waves, the PC+ mobile phone pattern has been set, and a new OS king will be born in the next AIoT era, and smart cars are the key landing scene.
the core of the operating system is the ecological dispute. Launching the operating system is only the first step. Only by cultivating the "developer+application" ecology at the source and transmitting the high-quality software ecology to the end can we create a successful operating system. The number of users upgrading HarmonyOS OS has exceeded 3 million in just one month. At present, the number of pure HarmonyOS OS developers has reached nearly 5,, which is expected to lead partners to create a new business ecosystem in the future.
HarmonyOS OS has unique innovation advantages. HarmonyOS OS is not a copy of others, and its "microkernel" modular design ideas and distributed architecture are more suitable for the needs of the Internet of Everything era. As a bridge and link between Huawei's "1+8+N" strategy and the Internet of Everything, HarmonyOS OS has a wider range of application scenarios and more imaginative growth space.
HarmonyOS, which is open and open, has the potential to break the game. A successful OS ecosystem requires concerted efforts. Huawei's donation of the Openharmony project to the Open Atomic Foundation has demonstrated its determination and dispelled the concerns of application vendors. This is not only Huawei's own battle, but also a key battle for domestic software manufacturers to grasp the core discourse power in the next AIoT era.
risk warning: the commercial landing of HarmonyOS operating system is less than expected; Industry competition has intensified; The mass production delivery of Huawei's terminal new products is less than expected
The delivery depends on the export: the near future is a hidden worry
Category: Industry organization: TF Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Chen Jinhai/Gao Sheng Date: July 21, 221
From the high-frequency indicators, the demand for container transportation is strong in the near future
From the high-frequency indicators such as container freight rate, volume and capacity, the demand for short-term container transportation is strong. The rising freight rates of SCFI, FBX and WCI in Zhou Du mean tight supply and demand. The throughput of foreign trade containers in China's eight hub ports shows a rapid growth, and the loading rate of the main export routes of Shanghai Port in Zhou Du is close to 1%, reflecting the strong export demand. The number of global container ships berthing in Zhou Du has rebounded, while the number of container ships at the anchorage in Los Angeles Port has decreased, reflecting the increase in effective capacity supply. The growth of effective supply, the loading rate approaching 1% and the continuous increase in freight rates all indicate strong demand.
Looking forward to the indicators, the demand for port congestion relief is released
The global container port congestion has eased, and the effective capacity has been increased, so the demand for container transportation will be released, and the traffic volume is expected to grow rapidly. Forward-looking indicators of container transportation demand: full export booking, slightly higher forward freight rate and high growth of American retail sales mean strong demand for container transportation in the future. In 221, port congestion became the bottleneck of container transportation, which limited the volume of transportation. Since the second quarter, the congestion in the ports in the west of the United States has eased, and the congestion in the ports in South China caused by the epidemic since July is easing. With the popularization of vaccination, port congestion at home and abroad is expected to continue to ease in the second half of the year, the effective capacity of container transportation will increase, the backlog of goods is expected to be shipped, and the container throughput and container transportation volume are expected to continue to increase.
In terms of export logic, the promotion of epidemic situation is reversing
The promotion of epidemic situation to export is reversing. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, residents' commodity consumption has replaced services, Europe and the United States have replaced domestic products with imported goods, and China's exports have replaced foreign countries and Europe and the United States have replenished stocks, which has promoted the high growth of foreign trade and container transportation demand. With the relief of the epidemic, service consumption and foreign production are recovering, and the three substitution functions are being reversed. The superposition of high freight rates and RMB appreciation has curbed exports, and China's export share has fallen sharply.
The inventory of American manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers (excluding motor vehicles and parts) has obviously exceeded the pre-epidemic level, and there is limited room for restocking in the future. In the future, if the epidemic situation is obviously alleviated, the demand for foreign trade and container transportation will be suppressed.
risk warning: the global epidemic situation is repeated, the economic recovery is delayed, and the number of new shipbuilding is increasing greatly.