Sanctions hit the Russian economy but failed to destroy it.
Since the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis, the West has imposed several rounds of sanctions on Russia, involving financial, trade, energy and other fields, which has led to drastic fluctuations in the Russian financial market, rapid depreciation of the ruble, rising prices and increased supply chain instability. However, with the Russian side taking a series of countermeasures, the Russian economy is generally stable.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a video conference on February 15 that with the joint efforts of the Russian government, financial institutions and various localities, the Russian economic situation has returned to stability. Putin said: "Western countries try to push Russia to the edge of world development through sanctions, but Russia will never take the road of self-isolation." Russia's foreign trade and investment are shifting to dynamic developing countries, regions and markets.
Putin said that although the Russian economy is facing a contraction this year, the decline is far below the 20% predicted by some experts. In 2022, Russia's GDP will fall by about 2.5%, narrowing again from the previous forecast of 2.9%. After a sharp rise from March to April, the price level in Russia has remained relatively stable since May. At present, Russian public finances remain stable. It is predicted that Russia's budget deficit will remain at a low level this year and in the next few years, accounting for about 2% of GDP.
65438+February 10, Moscow, Russia, people walk in the snow. Xinhua News Agency (photo by Alexander)
Analysts believe that after a series of shocks, such as the sharp fluctuation of the ruble at the beginning of the year and the massive withdrawal of western enterprises from the Russian market, Russia has stabilized its domestic financial system and economic order in a short time by relying on macro-control policies. In addition, due to the short-term dependence of European countries on Russian energy and other commodities, and the increase of Russian exports to Asia and Africa, Russia still gains something in international trade.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) pointed out in its World Economic Outlook report released in June 5438+ 10 that Russia's economic contraction is not as serious as expected, thanks to relatively stable oil exports and domestic demand.
Krudkov, a professor at tsiolkovsky State University in Kaluga, Russia, believes that one of the main goals of western sanctions against Russia is to cut off Russia's income in the energy (mainly oil and natural gas) market. But as a result, the commodity prices in the energy market have increased even more, and Russia's energy export income has also increased accordingly.
Ukraine has encountered economic and livelihood difficulties.
In contrast, since the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis, Ukraine's economy has been hit hard and people's livelihood difficulties have intensified.
On June 20, local residents in Donetsk evacuated from damaged buildings. Xinhua News Agency (photo by Victor)
On the one hand, the Ukrainian economy will fall into a serious recession in 2022. Ukrainian First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Sveridenko said at a news conference a few days ago that due to the destruction of power grid infrastructure, the Ukrainian Ministry of Economy predicted that the country's GDP would drop by 32% to 33.5% in 2022. The report released by the World Bank in June 5438+10 pointed out that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine destroyed many factories and farmland in Ukraine. It is estimated that the reconstruction work needs at least 349 billion US dollars, which is equivalent to 1.5 times of Ukraine's total economic output in 202 1 year.
On the other hand, the debt of the Ukrainian government has been rising. Geithmann Tsev, Chairman of the Finance, Taxation and Customs Policy Committee of the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) of Ukraine, said at the end of October that by the end of this year, the debt of the Ukrainian government had reached 103 1 billion dollars. Re-borrowing to fill the budget deficit is the main reason for the expansion of Ukrainian government debt. According to reports, the Ukrainian government had predicted that at least $55 billion in foreign aid would be needed in 2023 to pay for basic expenses. Washington post recently reported that Ukraine
This is the joint coordination center for grain transportation in the Black Sea, which was filmed in Istanbul, Turkey on July 27th. Xinhua News Agency reporter Shadati photo
First, global food and energy security has been seriously affected. Malpas, President of the World Bank, said that the Ukrainian crisis and western sanctions led to the shortage of food, energy and fertilizer, which triggered a food security crisis, and the poorest people suffered the most. In Europe, due to the tight energy supply, natural gas prices in many places have hit record highs, which has aggravated inflationary pressure and increased the burden on people's livelihood. According to the new data from Eurostat, the energy and food prices in the euro zone continued to soar. In June, the inflation rate reached 10.7% at an annual rate of 5438+ 10, a record high. According to the economic forecast report for the autumn of 2022 released by the European Commission recently, it is expected that the economies of the EU, the Eurozone and most member countries will fall into recession in the fourth quarter of this year, and economic activities will continue to shrink in the first quarter of next year.
Second, factors such as blocked supply chain have dragged down the global economic recovery. The Ukrainian crisis and the escalating Western sanctions against Russia have led to port congestion and airspace closure, increasing the pressure of land, sea and air transportation, and the shortage of auto parts, semiconductors, food and energy industries that have long relied on cross-border transportation continues to intensify. China's Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Geng Shuang, 65438+On February 6th, when the Security Council considered the Ukrainian humanitarian issue, it said that the current global food and energy crisis is not a problem of production and demand, but a problem of supply chain, and international cooperation has been disturbed.
This is the White House photographed in Washington, D.C. on August 16, 2006. Xinhua News Agency reporter Liu Jie photo
While the global economic recovery is deeply affected by the Ukrainian crisis, the United States is the biggest beneficiary of this crisis. According to the Yahoo News website, since the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis in February, EU countries have promised to buy weapons and equipment worth about $230 billion. Since American arms dealers are major suppliers in Europe, they will get the largest share of these orders; When Europe was in deep energy crisis, the United States took advantage of the fire to seize the European energy market and sell it at a high price. According to data from financial information service provider Luft, nearly 70% of the LNG loaded by American cargo ships leaving Hong Kong in September was shipped to Europe. According to many European media reports, American companies can earn more than $654.38 billion in profits per LNG ship bound for Europe.
The analysis believes that the global economic recovery has faced many uncertainties brought by regional imbalances, uncoordinated policies and repeated epidemics. The Ukrainian crisis and western sanctions against Russia have disrupted the global supply chain and seriously affected the normal operation of global trade. In addition, under the pressure of high inflation, the United States and other economies continue to tighten monetary policy, which will increase the risk of debt default in some countries and make the world economic recovery face more risks.