20 1 1 year, the Russian economy maintained its growth momentum, but the GDP growth rate was only 4.3%. In the external environment of the economic downturn in the United States and the intensification of the European debt crisis, this growth rate has been good. After the rapid growth of 20 10 ~ 20 1 1 year, Russia's real GDP recovered to the level of mid-2008 before the financial crisis, and various economic indicators improved. 20 1 1 year, the fiscal surplus reappears nearly 1%, and the inflation rate drops to the lowest level since the Russian economic transition.
In 20 12, the dust settled in the presidential election, and the reform goals put forward by Putin during his campaign began to be implemented. Prime Minister Medvedev has also determined the priority direction of the new government, and comprehensive reform, structural adjustment and rapid growth are ready to go. However, since the second half of 20 12, the Russian economy has continued to decline. The GDP growth rate in the first three quarters was 4.8%, 4.3% and 3.0% respectively, while the growth rate in the fourth quarter was only 2. 1%, and the annual growth rate was 3.4%. In 20 13, the economic decline further intensified. The growth rates in the first three quarters were 1.6%, 1.2% and 1.2% respectively, and the annual GDP growth rate was only 1.3%.
Russia's GDP growth rate from 2006 to 20 13 quarter
While the economic growth has obviously slowed down, the inflation rate is rising. In 20 13, the prices of all goods and services increased by 7. 1% in the first quarter, 7.2% in the second quarter and 6.4% in the third quarter, while in 20 12, the corresponding figures were 3.9%, 3.8% and 6.0%, 20/.
Entering 20 14, Russia's economic situation has become more complicated. First of all, the spillover effects of the withdrawal of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States are manifested here one by one: capital flight, devaluation of the ruble and increased inflation. Recently, with the escalation of the political crisis in Ukraine and the constant threat of western economic sanctions against Russia, both the Russian fund market and the foreign exchange market have been severely impacted. From March 1 1 to March 13, the two major Russian stock indexes fell one after another, and the Russian trading system index (ртс) traded in US dollars fell by 7% to 1.
078 points; The Moscow Interbank Foreign Exchange Trading Index (ммвб) traded in rubles fell by 6.7% to 1.249. 14
In the early morning of April 28th, the stock indexes of the two cities fell by 2.4% and 2.7% respectively at the opening of the stock market. Before March 3rd ("Black Monday"), the Moscow interbank foreign exchange trading index (ммвб) fell by more than 10%.
The ruble continues to depreciate. On March 13, the exchange rate of the ruble against the US dollar was 36.47. Since the beginning of the year, the ruble has depreciated 1 1. 1% against the US dollar. The exchange rate of the ruble against the euro also hit a record low of 50.9 1. The decline of the fund market and the devaluation of the ruble intensified the capital flight. Gaidar Economic Research Institute predicts that the capital flight will reach $65 billion in 20 14 years. Under the above circumstances, the inflation situation is still grim. In 2065 438+04 10, the price index rose by 6. 1%, and rose by 6.2% in February. Recently, food prices have risen rapidly. From March 4th to June, the consumer price rose by 0.2% 1 1, and the increase since the beginning of the year reached 1.6%.
In terms of real economy, the investment in fixed assets decreased by 7.0% in June 20 14, the construction industry decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, the growth of consumer demand slowed down, the growth rate of retail trade decreased from 4.4% to 2.2% in June 20 13, and the growth rate of residents' services also decreased from 5.6% last year to 65,438+. Industrial production decreased by 0.2% in June from October to April. Among them, the mining industry increased by 0.9%, the processing and manufacturing industry increased by 0.8%, and the production and distribution of electricity, natural gas and water decreased by 3.9%.
Since the beginning of the year, the positive aspect of the Russian economy is that the financial sector has maintained a surplus. The fiscal surplus in June 20 14 was 9.3%, while the fiscal deficit in the same period last year was 1.8%. The financial deficit of non-oil and gas sectors also decreased from -8. 1% to -3.0% compared with 20 13. Obviously, the financial situation this year is better than expected. The financial benefits come from two reasons: first, the oil price remains high in the situation of economic recovery in developed economies such as the United States; Second, the sharp depreciation of the ruble since the beginning of the year has expanded the national treasury. According to Tatyana Nesterenko, First Deputy Minister of Finance, fiscal revenue has increased by 4.
00 billion rubles, because the devaluation of the ruble increased by 360 billion rubles.
Future economic forecast
Under the current situation, it is not easy to predict the growth situation of Russia in 20 14 and beyond. 14 in March, the Russian central bank has adjusted its growth forecast for this year from the previous 2% to 1.5% ~ 1.8%, and believes that the Russian economy will not improve before 20 16 years: the growth rate will not increase significantly, and the inflation rate will not drop significantly. Citibank also recently lowered the growth rate of Russia in 20 14 years from 2.6% to 1%. The research conclusion of the Development Center of Higher School of Economics is even more pessimistic, saying that "the economic stagnation in 20 14 years is an optimistic estimate, and it is likely to be a recession". In the World Economic Outlook of 1 month, the International Monetary Fund predicted the world economic growth from 20 14 to 20 15, in which the GDP growth rate of Russia in 20 14 was 2.0% and that in 20 15 was 2.5%.
Planning and means:
In 20 14, the Russian Ministry of Economic Development proposed that "the May Order can't be achieved without a" strong plan ",which can increase GDP by 5.3%, while the current" conservative plan "can only guarantee a growth rate of 2.5%. The main contents of the "strong plan" are: carrying out structural reforms to improve the enterprise environment, strengthening the effective utilization of national savings, increasing government investment in infrastructure construction, and establishing a large-scale non-raw material export department.
Experts from the Russian Academy of Sciences generally agree with the views of the Ministry of Economic Development. In the research report on stimulating economic growth submitted to President Putin at the end of February this year, they claimed that the economy could be brought into a stable growth track, and their stimulus plan could reach an annual growth rate of 6% ~ 8%, thus ensuring the completion of the May Order. The essence of its stimulus plan is to increase infrastructure construction and reconstruction by expanding government financial expenditure, and to support non-state-owned sector technology and equipment modernization projects through specialized agencies, and so on. In short, the prescription prescribed by the experts of the Academy of Sciences is to implement government interventionism and give the government a "visible hand" to stimulate and promote economic growth.
Can the "strong plan" work? Yasin, a famous economist, believes that this plan is realized by increasing the investment in fixed assets from 20% to 30% ~ 33% and reducing the consumption expenditure of residents. Moreover, the amount of foreign investment should be increased to 6% of GDP, and the export of machinery and equipment should be increased to 10 times before 2030 to realize export diversification. However, this plan inevitably brings macroeconomic risks, because its realization conditions are rising fiscal deficit, increasing national debt and current account deficit, which will also increase the economy's dependence on the external market. Yasin also pointed out that although the designer claimed that this scheme depended on institutional reform, in fact, the above-mentioned "strong scheme" or "accelerated" development model may not be compatible with institutional reform.
The Russian economy is at an important juncture, which may improve or deteriorate. Generally speaking, the old problems have encountered new challenges. The old problem is the long-standing export growth model of energy and raw materials, which has fully exposed its drawbacks and fragility and threatened economic stability. The new challenge is that under the background of weak growth in developed economies and slow growth in emerging economies after the international financial crisis, this development model has been exhausted, and the pressure to change the growth mode and carry out structural adjustment has further increased. At the same time, the dividend brought by high oil prices to the Russian economy is weakening, and its growth pulling effect is obviously declining, which makes the challenges facing the Russian economy more severe.
Source: Russian Studies in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.