He Yuanyuan and She of China Securities Research Institute believe that the purchase of ICBC (60 1398) should not focus on its existing asset scale and profitability, but should focus on the huge potential energy nurtured by ICBC in the process of financial industry transformation and the prospect of ICBC becoming an internationally competitive bank in China in the future. Today, when the financial reform is undergoing historic changes, ICBC is given a dynamic P/B ratio of 3.8 times, and the reasonable share price is around 6.27 yuan.
"ICBC in 20 years and Citigroup in 200 years", in this seemingly absurd contrast, CITIC Jiantou pointed out that ICBC in 20 years and Citigroup in 200 years had similar experiences at a certain stage in history, and this time point happened to be 10 years ago. 10 years ago, Citigroup was still struggling in operating losses, and its asset scale was even worse than today's ICBC, but today's proud Citigroup proved the mistake of short-sighted behavior; Similarly, it is ridiculous to judge ICBC from the old perspective.
Citic China Construction Investment Co., Ltd. said that the path taken by Citigroup may be the path to be taken by ICBC. After the 1990s, the financial system of the United States moved towards mixed operation in an all-round way, which was also the process of Citigroup's transformation into a full-featured financial institution with business covering commercial banks, investment banks, asset management, insurance and so on. Citigroup has achieved great success in almost every field. The door of comprehensive financial management in China is slowly opening. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, an excellent commercial bank with the largest scale, brand and influence, has little suspense of success once it fully enters other financial businesses such as securities, asset management, industrial funds and insurance.
The valuation of Baosheng shares is lower than that of comparable companies.
Ethan, the research and development center of Guodu Securities, predicts that the earnings per share of Baosheng (600973) will be 0.62 yuan in 2006, 0.90 yuan in 2007 and 1. 17 yuan in 2008, and the compound growth rate of its performance will reach over 38% in the next two years. At present, the company's valuation is much lower than that of comparable companies, and the investment rating of "Recommended A" is maintained.
Ethan pointed out that the company's market positioning is in national key projects and major projects. After successively obtaining orders for national key projects such as Capital Airport, National Stadium Project (Bird's Nest) and Tianjin-Binhai New Area Rapid Rail Transit Project, the company has recently obtained orders for the expansion project of Shanghai Pudong International Airport, which shows that the company does have certain advantages in undertaking national key image projects. In addition to the demand of major projects, the national 3 1 key cities' power distribution transformation projects are also gradually started, so the market demand for medium-voltage cables will grow rapidly. It is estimated that the company's medium voltage cable sales will reach 654.38+0 billion yuan in 2007 and 654.38+0.5 billion yuan in 2008, which will become the main profit growth point.
Li Yuan said that the wire and cable industry is a fully competitive industry, but there are problems of low concentration and many small enterprises in this industry, and there are no more than 50 large enterprises capable of participating in key projects. With the composite advantages of brand, technology and products, the company has strong competitiveness in the key engineering market and has also been recognized by the market.
CYTS gradually came out of the trough.
Ye of Haitong Securities Research Institute believes that China Youth Travel Service (600 138), as a leading company in the tourism industry, can give 25 times PE, so the company's reasonable share price should be around 14.25 yuan, giving a "buy" investment rating. It is estimated that the company's earnings per share in 2006-2008 are 0.32 yuan, 0.57 yuan and 0.74 yuan respectively.
Ye pointed out that the gross profit of the company's travel agency business went out of the trough and gradually picked up. The gross profit margin of the company's travel agency business gradually increased steadily after the trough in 2005: the gross profit margin of inbound tourism reached 15%, and the number and income of inbound tourists increased by more than 20%; The gross profit of outbound travel reached 12%, 5% higher than the industry average, and the outbound travel income and number of people increased by more than 50%. It is expected that the travel agency business will maintain rapid growth and the company will become the core beneficiary of the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games.
Ye said that with the successful listing of Home Inns on NASDAQ in the United States, the domestic economy hotel chain has a vast market space, and such hotels have various forms of expression: Home Inns and Jinjiang Inn belong to low-end economy hotel chains, while the "Shanshui Hotel" is a fashion business hotel chain located in the middle market, with room prices ranging from 250 to 350 yuan. Because it is located in the middle market, the yield is maintained at 30%. The company plans to open about 10 stores in Beijing and the Pearl River Delta region in 2007, and plans to build 5 stores. By 2008, there will be about 20 direct stores, forming the initial scale of chain hotels. In addition, the company's real estate projects will enter the settlement period in 2007 and 2008, which will be an important source of profit in the next two years.
The Great Northern Wilderness benefited from rising food prices.
Tianxiang Investment Cai Xiangyang predicted that the earnings per share of Beidahuang (600598) in 2006-2008 were 0.35 yuan, 0.42 yuan and 0.47 yuan respectively. Land leasing business is the stable performance margin of the company, and the development of agricultural products processing business and fertilizer business will be the source of the company's performance growth. According to the performance in 2007, the price-earnings ratio is 18-20 times, the reasonable price of the company should be 7.56-8.40 yuan, and the value center is 8.00 yuan, so as to maintain the investment rating of "overweight".
The company's main business includes land contracting, agricultural products sales, fertilizer sales, paper sales and so on. Agricultural products sales are the company's main source of income, and land contract income is the company's main source of profit. Cai Xiangyang believes that the increase in food prices is expected to promote the growth of the company's land lease income. The profit model of the company's land leasing business is mainly realized by signing an agricultural production contract agreement with farmers and collecting the contract fee, and the agreed price is auctioned to farmers in the form of auction. With the increase of food prices, farmers are undoubtedly the biggest beneficiaries. The increase of farmers' income will enhance their enthusiasm for renting land, so the land auction price will increase and the company will benefit from this process.
Cai Xiangyang said that the company's grain processing business mainly relies on the purchase of rice in the third and fourth quarters for processing, and then sells it in the second year. The acquisition cost of the company in 2006 has been determined, and the continuous increase of grain prices will promote the increase of gross profit margin of rice sales in 2007; And with the gradual deepening of the brand construction of the company's "Beidahuang Rice Industry", the price of the company's rice products has great room for improvement. In addition, the company's urea production will be converted into methanol, which will reach 80,000 tons in 2007. It is estimated that the net profit per ton of methanol will reach about 65,438+0,000 yuan, which is the highlight of the company's performance growth in 2007.