The rabbit's life is too bitter in p>223

In the last article, when we wrote about Guangxi, we talked about how Guangxi lost to Hunan and Jiangxi when undertaking the industrial transfer in the Pearl River Delta.

Just following this topic, talk about the opportunities and challenges that Hunan Province faces when competing with other provinces.

The development of industrialization in Hunan is, of course, mainly the competition of industrial transfer.

The famous Lansi Technology started in Shenzhen in 23, and then moved to Hunan. In 222, Lansi Technology created 8, jobs for Hunan, with an average monthly income of 5,9 yuan before tax and a monthly salary of 527 million yuan, which made great contributions to the economy of Hunan Province.

In the first half of 222, Lansi Technology's revenue was 21.4 billion yuan, up 37% year-on-year, and its net profit was 2.3 billion yuan. It is a representative enterprise in Hunan to undertake industrial transfer in the Pearl River Delta.

When we usually talk about industrial transfer, we only think of the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta, but we always ignore that there is also a consumer goods area in Fujian Province, which mainly engages in small household appliances, clothing, shoes and socks. In fact, when Hunan, Jiangxi, Hubei, Anhui and Henan compete for industrial transfer, they all aim at these three areas, but it is easier for Hunan to get the Pearl River Delta industry according to its geographical location.

as mentioned in Guangxi, there will be a great industrial chain transfer in China in the next decade. The Pearl River Delta mainly radiates Ganzhou, Chenzhou, Hengyang, Shaoyang, Yongzhou, Liuzhou, Nanning and Hezhou, while the Yangtze River Delta mainly radiates Shangrao, Anqing, Wuhu, Bengbu, Xuzhou, Fuyang, Nanchang and Fuzhou, and Xiazhangquan mainly transfers to Ganzhou, Fuzhou, Shangrao and Ji 'an.

We can see that in the above list, several cities in Jiangxi Province are overlapped the most.

A glance at the map of China shows that Jiangxi is close to Fujian, Guangdong and Zhejiang, and it can be divided into one point with Hunan in the industrial undertaking war in the Pearl River Delta, but it has a considerable advantage over Hunan in the industrial undertaking war in Xiamen, Zhangquan and the Yangtze River Delta.

Among them, Ganzhou appears the most frequently. Among the 168 minerals in China, one city in Ganzhou owns 16. Ganzhou has a large number of rare earth, tungsten, copper, silver, lead, zinc, graphite and other minerals, with a permanent population of 9 million. A large number of smart home appliances, biomedical and new energy companies have come to Ganzhou, which has also kept the population of Ganzhou in a positive growth.

plus the Jiangxi-Shenzhen high-speed railway that will be opened at the end of 222, and the 1,31-kilometer super-project Zhejiang-Jiangxi-Guangdong Grand Canal, which will be started in 223 and planned to be completed around 23, Jiangxi, which began to decline because of the loss of waterways and railways, will regain its prosperity because of the high-speed rail and golden waterway.

as a result, Ganzhou has become the fastest-growing city in Jiangxi province, with GDP of 28.7 billion in 222, 347.4 billion in 222 and 364.5 billion in 222 respectively. In the first half of 222, Ganzhou's GDP reached 196.6 billion, and economists predict that it will exceed 4 billion.

In the data released by Jiangxi Provincial Department of Finance, I also found an interesting figure. In 222, the Provincial Department of Finance allocated Ganzhou 44.6 billion, Jiujiang 22.3 billion and Nanchang 2 billion. In 222, the Provincial Department of Finance allocated 44.4 billion in Ganzhou, 25.4 billion in Jiujiang and 19.7 billion in Nanchang; In 222, the Provincial Department of Finance allocated 47.9 billion yuan to Ganzhou, 29.1 billion yuan to Jiujiang and 23.4 billion yuan to Nanchang. It can be seen that Jiangxi Province also fully supports the construction of Ganzhou and Jiujiang, and allocated more money to these two cities than Nanchang. In the future, Jiangxi Province will form one echelon of Nanchang, Ganzhou and Jiujiang, with Yichun, Shangrao and Ji' an as the second echelon, which will drive the economic development of Jiangxi as a whole.

Nanchang now ranks 26th in China, with a GDP of only 574.5 billion, less than half of Changsha's, and is expected to enter the top 2 in the future. Ganzhou and Jiujiang now rank 42nd and 45th in China, and are expected to enter the top 3 in China.

The cities that are pushed down by Hunan and Jiangxi are probably some medium-sized cities with GDP of 3-4 billion and underdeveloped industries in the north.

In the first half of 222, the GDP of Jiangxi Province finally surpassed that of Shaanxi, ranking 14th in the country. According to the industrial transfer and large-scale infrastructure construction undertaken by Jiangxi now, I personally predict that Jiangxi will be ranked 1th-11th in the country after the completion of the Zhejiang-Jiangxi-Guangdong Grand Canal in 23.

It's more difficult to predict if we rush forward. The starting point in Jiangxi is indeed a little low, and the front is also as good as a cloud.

Let's talk about another important rival of Hunan: Hubei.

One echelon in Hubei is Wuhan, the second echelon is Xiangyang and Yichang, and the third echelon is Jingzhou, Huanggang, Xiaogan, Shiyan and Jingmen.

Wuhan and Changsha are different from Nanchang. Only Fuzhou and Jinan can understand Nanchang's mood. It is a provincial capital with little sense of existence, and the distance between Wuhan and Changsha and other younger brothers is too small. This kind of elder brother is wronged.

Last year, Wuhan's GDP was 1.56 trillion yuan, Xiangyang's was 46 billion yuan, Yichang's was 426.1 billion yuan, and Jingzhou's was only 236.9 billion yuan. The gap between the three echelons is obvious.

Hubei has an unsolvable geographical advantage over Hunan, that is, it has a 161km Yangtze River Economic Belt.

In September, 222, the Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt by Relying on the Golden Waterway was issued, and this economic belt became a key development strategy. Whoever touches this waterway will make a fortune.

at one time, a plan was hung on every wall in Hunan province, and the whole Hunan was divided into four large plates, namely, Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan District in the east, Shaoyang, Hengyang, Yongzhou and Chenzhou in the south, Xiangxi poverty alleviation area in the west, and Dongting Lake surrounding areas in Yueyang, Changde and Yiyang in the north.

This Dongting Lake is a rare place in Hunan that adjoins the Yangtze River. There are eight cities along the Yangtze River in Hubei, only Yueyang in Hunan, and it is only over 1 kilometers away from the river.

Because the Yangtze River exists, it saves a lot in transportation cost. In addition, Hubei is an important producing area of quartz sand with high silicon content, and there are mines at home. Hongtai Quartz Sand, Xintai Shi Ying and Zhenjie Shi Ying are all clustered here. The upstream and downstream of semiconductors, Changjiang Storage, Huawei Integrated Circuit, Sanan Optoelectronics, Huaxing Optoelectronics, Kelei and Fanlin, followed the mine owner to Wuhan to open a company, plus WISCO, Dongfeng Motor and Fanlin.

Four times the urban area of Changsha, more than 12 million permanent residents, 88 universities (57 in Changsha) with continuous high-quality workers, and the geographical thoroughfares of nine provinces, Wu Hanyou enjoys an unshakable advantage.

In 222, Hubei's GDP was 4.58 trillion, which was reduced to 4.34 trillion due to the epidemic in 222, and recovered to 2.27 trillion in the first half of 222. According to Hunan's 4.18 trillion in 222, the growth rate was still 3.8% last year, so it should not be able to catch up.

Hubei should be among the 6-7 provinces in China in the future.

For Hubei, the Yangtze River Economic Belt, Hunan has a realistic mentality of "the transportation system based on Xiangjiang River is integrated into the Yangtze River", which can be divided into a little bit.

I often say that geography is fate, and it is difficult for Hunan to compete with Hubei. When facing the Yangtze River, it is time to accept fate.

In addition to Jiangxi and Hubei, there is an Anhui in the back of Hunan.

As I mentioned in the Anhui chapter of Wan Li Map, after the flood and Hefei were well controlled, the whole province was in a stage of rapid progress. In 222, Anhui was only 2 billion less than Shanghai and 31 billion less than Hunan, ranking 11th in the country.

Moreover, Anhui is engaged in emerging industries, such as electronic information, new energy vehicles, new materials, food and medicine, household appliances, light industry textiles, etc. These industries have great potential, especially new energy vehicles. This industry will be a big cake in the future and will yield economic benefits, but it is a pity that Hunan has not caught it.

In Hefei, which is one of the echelons in Anhui Province, there were 12 new listed companies in 222, including 7 in science and technology innovation board alone. In the first half of 222, the industries above designated size increased by 33% and the export increased by 32%, far exceeding other cities at the same level. It is estimated that Hefei will reach 1.1 trillion GDP in 222, which is getting closer and closer to catching up with Changsha (1.21 trillion in 222).

Wuhu and Chuzhou, which are in the second echelon, it is only a matter of time before one develops machinery manufacturing, shipbuilding, textiles and clothing, light industrial food, and the other focuses on smart home appliances, advanced equipment, healthy food, chemicals, silicon-based materials and new energy, and with the help of extension, it is only a matter of time before they break through 4 billion GDP.

according to the current development speed and industrial potential, Anhui will surpass Hunan in a few years, and will be about 7-8 in the country in the future.

now, if we look at the GDP data of China in 222, we can see the sense of urgency in Hunan.

If there is no accident, Guangdong and Jiangsu will continue to compete for the top spot, and the positions of Shandong, Zhejiang, Henan and Sichuan will be hard to shake, and the top six will be hard to shake in the next decade, and the change will be concentrated in the seventh to tenth places.

Hubei and Fujian should not catch up, Anhui will overtake in the next few years, and Hunan may fall to the tenth place in the country, and it may be expected to stay here for a long time.

Hunan is inevitably anxious because it can't catch up in front and it has to be caught up in the back.

But fortunately, there is a big gap between the top 13 in China and the ranking behind. If you are in the top 13, you are not left behind.

Hunan's development speed is not so fast, but it is still developing as a whole.

Now, we can finally talk about Hunan and Changsha in detail.

By 222, the urban area of Changsha is only 1,99 kilometers, with a permanent population of 1 million, and that of Wuhan is 8,596 kilometers, with a permanent population of 14 million, which can reach four times that of Changsha. The main reason is that Changsha is surrounded by mountains in the west, south and north, and only the southeast can develop, while Wuhan is above Jianghan Plain, and Changsha is born to play.

Map Emperor

The advantage of being small is that the infrastructure cost is low, everyone lives together, the population density is high, it is convenient to go anywhere and do anything, and the business will be particularly developed.

For example, if you live in a building with 2, people, the bar, take-out and teacher TONY around here must be very developed, because the population can afford it in a concentrated way. If you live in a building with 3 people, the life of the bar owner, take-out and teacher TONY will be hard, and their passenger flow will be greatly reduced. They have to run several more buildings and pay several times of hard work to earn the same money.

When you go to Changsha, you will find that Modern China Tea Shop is simply a 1-meter-long shop, which is opened everywhere. It is because of the dense population that this kind of small shop can be raised, and the commercial brands such as Cha Yan and Wen Heyou can be born in Changsha because of the commercial advantages caused by the small urban area and dense population. In such a commercial environment, it is easy to give birth to brand-new brands that adapt to citizens' lives.

note that I use the word "citizen life business brand" here.

Why weren't Modern China Tea Shop and Wen Heyou born in Wuhan?

Because the population in Wuhan is less concentrated than that in Changsha, Changsha is more likely to produce a commercial brand of citizen life.

Why weren't Modern China Tea Shop and Wen Heyou born in Shenzhen?

Because of the high housing prices in Shenzhen and the extremely high work pressure, people are working hard every day, and it is impossible to live a leisurely life like Changsha people.

Changsha people's confidence in enjoying life leisurely lies in their lower housing prices in the provincial capital of China. As long as they don't eat or drink for 6.5 years, Changsha people can buy a suite, and the housing price is only around 1, yuan, even lower than that in some provincial counties.

Then why is the house price in Changsha so low?

Personally, I think there are two main reasons:

One is that when the national housing prices began to soar, Changsha kept the people-oriented bottom line.

after the tax-sharing system in 1994, the financial power was effectively strengthened, and it was able to "concentrate on doing great things". The local authorities took 75%, the local authorities took 25%, the corporate income tax took 6%, the local authorities took 4%, the local authorities took the consumption tax, and the local authorities took the business tax. Generally speaking, the local authorities took the big head and the local authorities took the small head, but the local authorities were also difficult. We have to build an elevated bridge, don't we? You always have to fix the sewer, don't you? Without money, the intersection can't even hang a red light and green, the bus can't run, and the city is paralyzed.

For example, in 28, local finance accounted for 48% of the national income, but it had to bear 79% of the national expenditure. Wherever money was needed, it was necessary to leave a way out for the local government. After negotiation, local governments were allowed to sell land to increase their income.

Local governments mainly do two things with money, one is to pay salaries, and the other is to build cities. In order to make cities more modern, local governments always have an impulse to sell land to make money.

Take this year as an example. In the first seven months of 222, the national land sales revenue was 4.14 trillion yuan, accounting for 56.7% of the local fiscal revenue of 7.3 trillion yuan and 34.76% of the national tax revenue of 11.91 trillion yuan. More than half of the local revenue was sold.

This has also brought a side effect. If the house price rises, the land price will rise. As soon as the land price rises, the house price will rise again, and the local income will increase.

it doesn't matter whether you want to be impulsive or not.

However, in the past twenty years, Changsha has not been impulsive at all, and has withstood the land sales to make money.

In an interview with the media in the past, a person in Hunan Province once said: People are living too hard to pay off their high mortgage, and Changsha can't let them live like this.

If you can't make money, you have to save money. Changsha has been saving money in the field of infrastructure construction. If it costs one billion yuan to build a bridge, we should try our best to reduce it to 6 million yuan by scientific means. By the end of 222, Wuhan plans to build 6 kilometers of subway, so we plan to build 2 kilometers. In 225, Wuhan plans to build 8 kilometers of total mileage and Changsha plans to build 3 kilometers.

The disadvantage of controlling the impulse to sell land is that the infrastructure has not been paved wildly. The advantage is that citizens can feel happy, work hard, buy a house and live a good life.

Only with population can we support industry, and only with industry can Changsha have hope.

Yes, the second reason is that Changsha must have a mace if it wants to keep the hope of industrial development and survive the fierce competition in the central provinces.

Hubei has the Yangtze River, Anhui has Jiangsu and Zhejiang, Jiangxi has the Grand Canal and three neighboring provinces, so Hunan can only start a business by pulling villagers back from the Pearl River Delta and Yueyang Changde in the north. In the next ten years, Hunan's geographical position is better than that of Anhui, Jiangxi and Hubei, and Hunan.