The latest survey conducted by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business in collaboration with the Financial Times shows that the way the Fed tightens monetary policy may be much more radical than its recent forecast and market expectations.
According to reports, just over 70% of the respondents believe that the Fed will raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points in 2022. Nearly 20% of the respondents expect the Fed to raise interest rates in the first half of next year. This is much earlier than the Fed officials predicted to raise interest rates in June this year. At that time, they did not expect to raise interest rates until 2023.
Among the 49 economists surveyed, most expect the Fed to announce that it will begin to reduce or "shrink" the size of its monthly bond purchase program of $654.38+02 billion, and then end the program in 2022.
According to the report, the Fed has promised to maintain the current scale of bond purchases until the US economy has made "substantial further progress" in maximizing the average inflation rate and employment rate of 2%. Officials say the first goal has been achieved, but there is still room for improvement to achieve the second goal.
More than 40% economists believe that the Fed will announce the reduction of its bond purchases at the meeting of 5438+0 1 in June, while 3 1% economists expect that the Fed will announce the news in February 1. Many economists have warned that if the COVID-19 epidemic spreads further and the employment data stagnates, the timetable may be delayed-a quarter of them expect that the Federal Reserve will not issue the relevant notice until next year.
It is reported that the survey results were collected from September 3 to 8, which is consistent with the views put forward by the "hawks" members of the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve. These "hawkish" members are worried about soaring prices and believe that the US economy can now withstand the impact of reducing the size of the stimulus plan.
Stephen Cecchetti, an economist at brandeis University in the United States, said: "By 2022, the labor market will be strong enough and wage growth will be strong enough."
The report pointed out that the savings accumulated during the epidemic period led to a sharp increase in consumer demand, coupled with a serious supply bottleneck and the shortage of other factors, which pushed the inflation rate to the highest level since 13, and once again aroused people's concern that inflationary pressure would continue.
Editor/field
"，" force_purephv":"0 "，" gnid":"99bb7db 106ac7b674 "，" img_data":[{"flag":2，" img":[]}]，" original":"0 "，" pat":"piece_72time，art_src_3，fts0， Sts0 ","powerby":"cache ","pub _ time ":1631589100k": "Financial Times", "u": "}, {"clk ":"economy _/. K ":"Federal Reserve ","u": "}, {"clk ":"KEconomy _ 1: American economy ","K ":"American economy ","u ":"}, {"clk": "KEconomy _ 65433. Will raising interest rates trigger a financial crisis? It will definitely be because the United States is doing this to make itself have a good development in the future, but it may really cause a financial crisis, so be cautious.
When will the Fed raise interest rates? If the Fed pays too much attention to the current economic data, I am afraid it will take too long to raise interest rates-it may be too late to start raising interest rates. Whenever the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds a policy meeting, the Federal Reserve will review the economy and make corresponding decisions on reducing the scale of quantitative easing (QE) policy. I think forward-looking guidance on interest rates is very cautious ... I don't think bankruptcy liquidation authorization can solve the problem of "too big to fail" in the banking industry.
Time for raising interest rate in USD: The time for raising interest rate in USD in 20 19 years roughly corresponds to that in 20 18 years, and the interest rate was raised four times in 20 18 years. They are 2065438+March 3 1, 2065438+June 13, 065438+September 27, 20 18+February18. On March 3rd, 2065438, the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.5%- 1.75%. On June 2, 20 18, the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise interest rates by 25 basis points and raise the federal funds rate to 13. The Federal Reserve announced the third rate hike this year, raising the federal funds rate to 2.00%-2.25% and Du Fu by 25 basis points. 4, 20 18,18+02,19. Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen will hold a press conference, so it is expected that 2018.
What should the Fed do if it raises interest rates in March? Looking forward to 2022, investors still feel that US stocks should be under pressure: large-scale technology stocks will be under pressure, and it is good to raise interest rates after March.
When will the United States raise interest rates this year? Although it is possible to raise interest rates in April, if there is such an intention, the interest rate meeting in mid-month will still be announced. The news in April should be just a test, and it will wait for June.
How many times have interest rates been raised in American history? What is the impact of raising interest rates on the foreign exchange market, precious metals and economy? In short, the interest rate hike is-during Greenspan's period from June 30, 2004 to March 28, 2006, the interest rate of the US dollar rose from 1.00% to 4.75% during the current two-year US dollar interest rate hike cycle. There is no obvious regularity. Since the Bretton Woods system, the relationship between the dollar and precious metals has been inversely proportional in history. That is, gold fell and the dollar rose. Raising interest rates means excess money circulating in the market, which is easy to cause serious inflation. The purpose of raising interest rates is to increase bank deposits and reduce currency circulation. Things are scarce, and the amount of dollars circulating in the market has decreased. Then, the value of the dollar increased. Precious metals are more than gold.
Schedule of previous interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and its impact: Schedule of interest rate hikes: In the early morning of March 201June 7, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep interest rates unchanged as expected, reducing the number of interest rate hikes this year from the previous four to two. The hidden downside risks of the global economy and the still low inflation rate in the United States have become two major concerns for the Fed to suspend interest rate hikes. ...
Can the dollar rise to 7 in 2022? -At the beginning of 2020, the author bought some dollars to travel abroad. The lowest price is in 6.7 yuan, and the highest price is also in 6.9 yuan. At the peak, the dollar reached 7.2 yuan against RMB. With the trend of the Federal Reserve's unlimited easing policy after the outbreak of the epidemic, the epidemic almost destroyed the real economy of the US dollar. ...
When will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates? -According to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting on interest rates in June in 5438+ 10, the Fed officials at that time gave the strongest signal to raise interest rates again as soon as March, and pointed out that interest rates would be raised again "soon". In addition, since the last meeting, many Fed officials have become more hawkish about raising interest rates in March. ...
Help me find out when the United States will raise interest rates. The meeting will be held at 5 am Beijing time tomorrow!